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Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st April 2014 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    If things look good I will be chasing after work, although due to my location I will more than likely concentrate to the north of London rather than SE of it.

    Corr that's a drive! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stansted, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Stansted, Essex (72m asl)
    legritter, on 24 Apr 2014 - 21:59, said:

    Some action kicking off over the channel ,a hard one to call but hope for some ,lets hope we are in the firing line .we had one or two isolated cells develope today  over mendip but only large spots ,looks like a rash of tiny action breaking out ahead of main rain area now heading north and n/west .cheers .

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Stansted, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Stansted, Essex (72m asl)

    Estofex forecast is out....

     

    post-17315-0-60292700-1398377891_thumb.p

    Storm ForecastValid: Fri 25 Apr 2014 06:00 to Sat 26 Apr 2014 06:00 UTCIssued: Thu 24 Apr 2014 22:07Forecaster: TUSCHY

    A level 1 was issued for Beligum, the Netherlands and NW Germany mainly for an isolated large hail event. A local excessive rain event is forecast.A level 1 was issued for Hungary, SE Austria, Slovenia and Croatia mainly for excessive rain.A level 1 was issued for NW-Turkey mainly for large hail and a few severe downburst events.A level 1 was issued for parts of the W-Mediterranean mainly for excessive rain.SYNOPSISSplit flow / blocking pattern continues over Europe. A belt of strong westerlies extends from the Iberian Peninsula to North Africa to Turkey. Numerous impulses are embedded in this flow and affect the Mediterranean. The strongest feature will be a trough, which chokes itself off over the W/CNTRL Mediterranean and drifts slowly to the east. Central Europe still resides beneath weak mid-level geopotential height gradients and another round of widespread thunderstorm development is forecast.

     

    ... SE-UK and the SW North Sea ...Complex forecast in store, as area of interest resides between a SE-ward moving upper low and a rapidly strengthening depression SW of Ireland. Strongest synoptic lift is forecast before noon. That's the time, where some models push the relicts of dying clusters from the previous night towards SE-UK. Rain with embedded thunderstorms is forecast. As synoptic lift exits to the N around noon, some clearing can take place over SE-UK, where BL dewpoints exceed 10 °C beneath 7 K/km mid-layer lapse rates. This should assist in MLCAPE of 500-800 J/kg.Initiation probably awaits a northward moving surface trough, which pushes a weak front to the NE towards Belgium and the E-UK. CI is forecast along a line Le Havre - Reims (France) and to the north around noon. 10-15 m/s DLS may support an isolated large hail threat over SE UK with more discrete storms. Storms tend to grow upscale betimes and a cluster of thunderstorms spreads to the N/NW. Strong wind gusts and heavy rain will be the main hazard. After sunset, the activity becomes more elevated with a decreasing severe risk over the W-North Sea and CNTRL-UK. 

    Edited by poseidon
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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Netweather storm forecast for Friday has already been issued: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

     

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    Synopsis
    Upper low sits west of the UK with a trough extension SE into Spain and France.  At the surface, pressure will continue to fall towards the SE of the UK as a shallow area of thundery low pressure drifts north on the near continent. A frontal zone separating warmer but unstable continental airmass to the east and cooler more stable Atlantic airmass to the west will lie from eastern Scotland down through central and southern England, bringing showery rain along it.
     
    ... S and SE ENGLAND, MIDLANDS and E ANGLIA ...
     
    A frontal zone lying across E Spain, W and N France and north into the western North Sea has developed a wave towards western France. This wave will push a warm front north tonight towards the Sern UK, while a subtle shortwave trough and upper wind speed max moves north aloft too. As a result, large scale ascent of warm moist airmass moving north over France is producing heavy rain and thunderstorms across N France, this will move north across S and SE England, The Midlands and E Anglia during Friday morning along frontal zone pushing in here from the south and east, and although any embedded thunderstorms are likely to become increasingly isolated, there is a risk of surface flooding from heavier downpours moving north.
     
    As the frontal boundary continues northwest, cloud and thundery rain will likely clear away to allow some sunshine across SE England and E Anglia on Friday afternoon while, at the same time, the boundary (surface) layer becomes increasingly moist from the near continent with dew points reaching 10-12C . Steepening lapse rates spreading from the near continent will allow the moist airmass to become increasingly unstable here with surface heating, with heavy showers or thunderstorms possibly developing by late afternoon and into the evening.  30-40 knts of deep layer shear indicated by GFS may support isolated large hail with any storms ... though heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts will be the main threats. Storms may grow upscale into multicells or even and MCS though any storms tending to become elevated and less severe after dark.
    Edited by Nick F
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    Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

    Not had a proper look at the charts and wont get a chance in the morning as I will be out really early so a bit of a stab in the dark here

     

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Storm possibly on its way for Southern parts come dawn. On night shift at the moment so keeping an eye on it. Today looks very promising IMO

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl

    The radar looks quite interesting for parts of the south coast from an area roughly Isle of Wight/Portsmouth westwards.

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    A lot of sferics just to the west of Brighton as this band of rain moves in from the continent.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Yep, a nice (or not so nice) wake up call this morning for some across West Sussex and east Hampshire:

     

    post-1052-0-83102300-1398409314_thumb.jp

     

    If you haven't seen it on the last page, Netweather Storm Forecast issued last night: 

     

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=dfd79a812cd741962c48ed1496a7251e

     

    GFS still builds 300-500 j/kg CAPE this afternoon/early evening across the SE and EA, mainly north of London, following clearance of cloud and rain this morning, with warm sunshine breaking through this afternoon (20C) possibly sparking off some storms.

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    Posted
  • Location: GU35, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: GU35, Hampshire

    I just drove through what must've been the center of that storm currently making it's way north from the Portsmouth area.

     

    Torrential rain, and I need to emphasize the word torrential and the occasional clap of thunder, lightning was lovely vivid purple and had a couple of close strikes which had almost instantaneous thunder.

     

    The roads are flooded but things have just died down somewhat.

    Edited by imriecm
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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    So far the storm activity is along the eastern side of the rain band pushing north, which bodes well for around here if it can hold it's thundery element.

     

    Should the sun get through the cloud it is looking good for some potent storms in parts of EA and the SE later, which will then head NW. I am thinking that as these storms become elevated into the night the lack of sun during the day over areas further north will be of little issue. So in a strange way I need the sun to come out in the SE today in order to go chasing around the S and E Midlands/Lincolnshire this evening and do not need worry about sunshine amounts here.

    Edited by Supacell
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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    So far the storm activity is along the eastern side of the rain band pushing north, which bodes well for around here if it can hold it's thundery element. Should the sun get through the cloud it is looking good for some potent storms in parts of EA and the SE later, which will then head NW. I am thinking that as these storms become elevated into the night the lack of sun during the day over areas further north will be of little issue. So in a strange way I need the sun to come out in the SE today in order to go chasing around the S and E Midlands/Lincolnshire this evening and do not need worry about sunshine amounts here.

    fingers crossed for us midlanders supacell!!I'm in South east leicestershire so I assume things are looking good for us assuming everything falls into place across the south east!!
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Typical light rain for here!

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    For anyone that will be monitoring the US storms this weekend as I am sure there really is goona be some bad boy storms out there this may help :)

     

    http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=de&page_0=30

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    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

    No sun here, come on for *** sake :(

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Like to point how unstable the atmosphere above us is..

     

     

    There is a small storm fired in Northern France right on the edge of this main cloud... So when that sun does show if it does it's bang time baby! Now we don't really have to get to much sun here we want France to breed these bad boys and for them to move North - North west..

     

    post-12648-0-85376700-1398417863_thumb.j

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    Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL

    Starting to get brighter here in the south east but there is still quite a bit of cloud. Want it to clear quickly.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    The Euro 4 has downgraded events for the south east this evening, best chance will be today. I'd keep my options open on that one, doesn't look too exciting.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sheffield shield not even interested. Not expecting anything bar a little rain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder Storms. All extreme weather.
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)

    Sun now out in Ippy. Here's hoping for some action later. :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Rain just starting here, very light though. Not expecting much today either - just a damp/wet day. Would much rather have a clean rPm shower setup - always get good storms out of that here.

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