Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st April 2014 onwards

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

A couple of days away but the 12z GFS shows some interest for Friday in the SE quarter of the UK, inc the East Midlands and CS England. Quite decent CAPE values and high temperatures being advected northwest off the continent. Worth keeping an eye on.

Yep I've been keeping an eye on this, and suddenly it appears we may be having a pint or two off that brewery over the low countries

In excess of 1500j/kg over Belgium and Holland and 1000j/kg being shown over E Anglia and E Midlands. Will be a very interesting 48 hours thats for sure. Just shows the best surprises can often crop up at the last moments!

[Mokidugway]

Nothing for the North west as usual , but early days !!.......

[StormChaseUK]

Very narrow band of heavy rain passed over earlier.

 

[Mokidugway]

Didnt get anything all day here in North Wales. Couldn't see anything out off the coasts either, too much cloud.

it eventually drifted my way , nothing but a heavy shower !!....

[Arnie Pie]

Where was that taken from Stormy?....just wondering whether its the same system thats been crawling towards Birmingham for most of the afternoon :unsure:

nice and clear again....what camera was you using?

 

edit; got it up the top of Clee

Edited April 23, 2014 by Arnie Pie

[StormChaseUK]

Where was that taken from Stormy?....just wondering whether its the same system thats been crawling towards Birmingham for most of the afternoon :unsure:

 

nice and clear again....what camera was you using?

Clee Hill, Shropshire.   I use a HD Sony Camcorder, with Sony Vegas - the camera is quite basic but the software I use makes it clearer rendered output

[Arnie Pie]

Cheers Stormy....good results and a fast output......It looks to be the same system thats very slowly coming into view now

 

( i had been wondering what it looked like  )

Edited April 23, 2014 by Arnie Pie

[Supacell]

Went out storm chasing on Bank Holiday Monday and caught an intense storm cell coming out of Oxford/Abingdon area heading westwards. I filmed as I core punched the storm with hailstones, strong winds and torrential rain. Here is a little snippet of the moment I went through the core:

 

[Supacell]

Great vid. Be great to meet up and chase on one of the more bigger risk days, should they arise this year.  

 

Thank you and definitely. Chasing alone does have it's down sides.

 

It would not surprise me if Friday's potential disappears on tomorrow morning's runs as quickly as it appeared on today's, but I shall await to see.

[Eskimo]

Reed Timmer, arguably the most famous storm chaser on the planet is worried that the period between sat-mon could look similar to the tornado episode of 2011. He says it's looking very dangerous for Tornado Alley. 

[poseidon]

Reed Timmer, arguably the most famous storm chaser on the planet is worried that the period between sat-mon could look similar to the tornado episode of 2011. He says it's looking very dangerous for Tornado Alley.

http://ukstormchaser.blogspot.co.uk

[Eskimo]

http://ukstormchaser.blogspot.co.uk

3500J/Kg CAPE, Jesus! :o

Edited April 23, 2014 by PerfectStorm

[feb1991blizzard]

3500J/Kg CAPE, Jesus! :o

 

 

Absolutely zero chance of 3500 cape in my opinion.

[NL]

3500J/Kg CAPE, Jesus! :o

Nothing unusual there... The plains get those values typically during 'storm season'..!!!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Think the Moore, OK 1999 tornado was associated with CAPE in excess of 5000j/kg !! Bonkers!

Still potential for some storm activity into tomorrow and possibly some imports from the low Countries cmooonnn RELEASE THE KRAKEN!

[Convective]

Still not sure what's due for tomorrow. I see the chance for import storms from across the Channel, coming out of Belgium area but most forecasts going with a period of rain extending up as far as Northern England, associated with the potential imports. Whether this will be thundery or not, I don't know. Although I definitely hope so!

[staplehurst]

Where? The plains? As NL says, I'll think you'll find those values are quite the norm on many storm risk days during spring/summer.  Indeed, they've seen far higher. If you were referring to over here, although very rare the chances are still considerably greater than zero that those values could be reached on a day of particularly high boundary layer temperatures and dewpoints.

 

But the thread is going off-topic here (even if the subject is on the same theme).

 

In the period 2002 - 2012, according to a WRF model climatology at least, some parts of the UK have exceeded 3000 J/kg, so as weather09 says it's perfectly plausible, albeit rather rare. This was one of my findings in my recently published paper looking at a climatology of CAPE in the UK: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3976/abstract

 

With regards to tomorrow, it's looking a little better this morning with hints of imported thunderstorms tomorrow evening across SE Eng drifting north into E Anglia (backed by the GFS and EURO4) albeit some differences in timing and position, so one to watch. But it is looking likely today, just waiting for the dreaded eastward drift 

[vladthemert]

Went out storm chasing on Bank Holiday Monday and caught an intense storm cell coming out of Oxford/Abingdon area heading westwards. I filmed as I core punched the storm with hailstones, strong winds and torrential rain. Here is a little snippet of the moment I went through the core:

 

 

fantastic vid some real nutters on the road driving without lights or fog lights.  Some that vid visibility looked zero must been scary.

 

ESTOFEX has level 2 today most action all in europe with further 4 level 1 warnings.

 

 

METEOX has band of rain showing lightening this between spain and france looks like tracking towards north east that could hit UK later around kent

[Mapantz]

I think feb was referring to the UK when he says no chance.

There's congestus building up here, some dark bases on them too, perhaps a few light showers later, not expecting a great deal though.

[Mapantz]

The Euro 4 indicating some thundery downpours in the SE on Friday night..

the NMM shows some modest, mixed layer and surface based cape, although the precipitation charts don't look anything special (not that I would take them at face value)

Edited April 24, 2014 by Mapantz

[SnowJoke]

Nice shower developing to my south, can see the core of heavy rain and possibly hail falling. Looking at the appearance I'm just waiting to hear thunder any time soon.

[Summer of 76]

Nice shower developing to my south, can see the core of heavy rain and possibly hail falling. Looking at the appearance I'm just waiting to hear thunder any time soon.

Here's a web cam picture from dunstable direction, seems to be growing and moving towards MK direction

 

http://dunstablehpc.co.uk/images/weather/dunnycam.jpg

[ChezWeather]

NetWeather going with a 52% chance of a thunderstorm here at 18:00.

 

Radar is down at the moment though so I have idea whats developing. 

[SnowJoke]

No electrical activity in the shower at all. Brief spell of heavy rain from an elevated cloud base, and it's clearing through.

[Supacell]

Unfortunately the 12z GFS has started to move the risk area for tomorrow eastwards. Places such as the SE and EA still in with a shout but I expect by the morning it will be all across the waters.