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Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st April 2014 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    There was a good downpour while I was at the pub last night, another 8.4mm since midnight too. It's about to kick off again soon, from the other direction. :)

     

    post-15177-0-01068500-1398587386_thumb.j

     

    post-15177-0-27866200-1398588442_thumb.p post-15177-0-12847200-1398587400_thumb.p

    Edited by Mapantz
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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    I think today's chances are once again dependent on cloud coverage which again is rather high here anyway. The BBC forecast did look promising for downpours and thunderstorms for west London and westwards along the M4 tomorrow as more sunshine would be present and a generally slacker airflow. Hopefully something will emerge today though. Plenty of showers circulating around the low as seen on the radar.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    I think today's chances are once again dependent on cloud coverage which again is rather high here anyway. The BBC forecast did look promising for downpours and thunderstorms for west London and westwards along the M4 tomorrow as more sunshine would be present and a generally slacker airflow. Hopefully something will emerge today though. Plenty of showers circulating around the low as seen on the radar.

     

    After having a quick glance at a couple of charts, tomorrow could be the pick of the last few days?!

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Strong sunshine here resulting in decent insolation. Cumulus already becoming semi cumulonimbus ! Think we will be the breeding ground to what will be some good storms over the Midlands.

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    Plenty of sunshine has broken out here although it was cloudy up to around an hour ago. I think Derby is too far north and east today though so the sunshine may go to waste. Having said that, in contrast to usual W'ly set ups, we here in the East Midlands could be the breeding ground for areas further west.

     

    Agreed that tomorrow looking quite good in the south and Wednesday not looking too shabby either.

     

    Edit: Ha ha, East England Stormchaser, great minds think alike and all.

    Edited by Supacell
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    Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL

    I do like the look of Panayiotis forecast map but there is to much cloud cover for the sun to break through to aid with convection so probably going to be another bust.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

    Yes! the sun is breaking through here. :)  Good luck everybody and don't forget if today doesn't deliver then there's always tomorrow. :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    The GFS 06z brings prospects on most days from now up to at least Thursday for southern areas, those chances stretching into the Midlands on occasion. With longer days now these showers could also last well into the evenings. Today, for example, we have plenty of time yet for the sun to break through and produce those showers. GFS shows highest CAPE predictions around 6pm and there is already plenty of sunshine here. 

     

    If I see it as being worthwhile I may take a trip west this afternoon towards the likes of Shropshire, although latest forecasts would appear to show Derby as being within the risk zone, albeit on a knife edge. 

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    The GFS 06z brings prospects on most days from now up to at least Thursday for southern areas, those chances stretching into the Midlands on occasion. With longer days now these showers could also last well into the evenings. Today, for example, we have plenty of time yet for the sun to break through and produce those showers. GFS shows highest CAPE predictions around 6pm and there is already plenty of sunshine here.  If I see it as being worthwhile I may take a trip west this afternoon towards the likes of Shropshire, although latest forecasts would appear to show Derby as being within the risk zone, albeit on a knife edge.

    I'm going to try and get storm chasing more this season. I'm definitely going to be up for chasing on a big plume event and on awesome classical convective days. Plus if we get a situation where the best of the action will be just across the channel, I may be half tempted to go across onto the continent! But hopefully I will not be needing to do that!We shall see!
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    Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

    Interesting to see that the Met Office are forecasting showers to make it over the sea to me today, unlike other days when showers have died out just off the land.

     

    Wish I could go chasing in France or something too, but when it costs in excess of £80 one way off the island to London Gatwick, without a transfer to get to France it starts to become tedious to organise. And of course the fact that it isn't particularly easy to pull £300 out of nowhere at the age of 16, even with a part time job....

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

    cloudcover inhibiting convection for many southern counties currently, just bits and pieces of showery rain spiraling around the LP centre....The good news is that SAT24 visible imagery is showing a clearer slot moving into south coastal areas off the English Channel, so certainly for southern counties and the west country I'd be keeping an eye on this area for convective development

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    Posted
  • Location: Stansted, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Stansted, Essex (72m asl)

    Sat24 shows a conveyor belt of cloud coming from the continent, from the SE and circulating around the top of the low across the middle of the country. Does seem like it may thin for a while soon though, but only temporarily. North EA and above the wash looks to be the place to be for sun.

    Great minds think alike aj. ;-)

    Edited by poseidon
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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Low cloud gradually clearing with robust cbs visible above just to the east here. Just need more of the low cloud to do one and let insolation get to work and some of these showers might pep up a bit.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Good sunny spells here now.

     

    Here's the clearer slots, as noted by the above posts.

     

    post-15177-0-60114900-1398598250_thumb.p

     

    WeatherPro has a t-storm warning out for tomorrow,  every time they've issued one, I've managed a few flashes and bangs in the showers, so let's hope the 100% success rate continues?! :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    Chasing on the continent would be great but the problem is the lack of accurate forecasts beyond a couple of days. I could imagine me spending on flights to France in a weeks time just for high pressure to be in control. Getting a flight with less notice becomes very pricey. It is for that reason that I am primarily, and so far exclusively, a UK storm chaser. However, I do yearn to see storms the likes of what our closest neighbours get to see - although last year produced some storms that weren't far off.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    First proper thundery shower of the day just pushed through. Rather messy gust front ahead of the cell and scud below the cloud base. Then a sudden onset of positively violent rain of massive drops and a rush of wind. That's moved through but another one is hot on its heels. Come on t&l, that's all that's missing.

     

    This would also be the second Sunday in a row with torrential rain approaching from the east.

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Loads of towers going up N and NW of Peterborough. Supacell, the likes of derby and notts soon may be hit! Be on the look out

    Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

    Clap of thunder heard over Seaton from Newton Poppleford.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stansted, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Stansted, Essex (72m asl)

    Couple o strikes round Somerset way.

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    Posted
  • Location: Up North like
  • Location: Up North like

    Clap of thunder heard over Seaton from Newton Poppleford.

    I just heard it too William. Reckon it's tracking inland North west towards Honiton way. Spoke too soon, just started raining here so might get some action :-) Edited by Cakie
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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    Loads of towers going up N and NW of Peterborough. Supacell, the likes of derby and notts soon may be hit! Be on the look out

     

    Thanks mate, I am watching that area closely on the V6 radar. Currently some light showers around here but your observation is a positive sign. Plenty of heavy showers to the west of here and a thunderstorm now to the west of Bristol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Several rumbles of thunder to the north of here from a passing cell, probably more towards Bristol itself. Skies looking very menacing in that direction.

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