Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st April 2014 onwards

[Tom Jarvis]

I seem to allways miss the storms they seem to happen to my north, south, east or west of me and never over me ;(

[vladthemert]

got no mist or fog today we not in the game 

[MP-R]

Much better day today. A real case of sunshine and showers, the most recent of which was definitely thundery with torrential rain bouncing off anything and gusty winds. Feeling warm in the sun. So much better than all that SErly crud.

[The PIT]

Nothing really to get excited about. Odd light spot of rain. Showers not making any real progress North West. Certainly better than yesterday as it's brighter but terms of actual interesting weather 1 mark out 10.

[Muffelchen]

Looks like a storm has developed over the Cherbourg Peninsula and is slowly heading North towards the Isle of Wight. Looks this is the place to be so far this year.

 

Rain band has finally cleared here and sun is coming out a bit, however, there is a high level altostratus shield with quite a bit of cumulus at lower levels. This is limiting the insolation so I think all will be quiet here today.

 

Hopefully it will dry out, the breeze will pick up and I can fly some kites later. Not been great this week.

[A.J]

not much shear around today to seperate updraft/downdrafts, so storms will be of the pulse variety and shortlived

[Stormyking]

First Shower has just arrived and it has produced a really wicked looking shelf cloud

lightning being picked up to our South so fingers crossed!

[Mapantz]

You'd put money on showers here due to the setup. Despite TV and web forecasts, it has remained sunny all day.

[Tom Jarvis]

Nice lot of storms moving out of France heading my way.

[Mokidugway]

Cumulus started to build , but seems to have lost its mojo !!......

[Stormyking]

Wow wow it looks unreal to our East, so close to producing lightning easy!

[Adi F]

I see the storm in in the channel trying to tease us but the charts suggest the active area won't cross onto our shores.  

[Darren Bown]

Been a lovely day here, lots of sunshine, but a very stiff wind. Showers have done what I thought so far today, and been prevalent in the S and SW and progressively isolated and weaker further N and E.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Hoping that batch of storms leaving France can make it to say Brighton and then trundle Northwards from there! But when its too good to be true, it normally is!

[Panayiotis]

The cells seem to be surviving as they cross the channel, look around the Portsmouth area....hopefully I havent spoke too soon!

Edited April 26, 2014 by Panayiotis

[nanu]

http://www.dawlishbeach.com/live/index.php?main_page=index&cPath=18

 

Good cam to watch any action... and if your train spotter as well!!

[Mapantz]

Lovely satellite imagery today!

 

 

[TonyH]

Mass of showers over SW Wales this afternoon, frequent, prolonged and very heavy at times at Carmarthen and here at home where there has been 11mm in the past 4 hours, no thunder heard though.

[LeeKay]

Animated LP build off Southern Ireland from Friday to current time:

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

[Panayiotis]

Another flop today but I agree with @weather09 that tomorrow is looking considerably better! From the EURO4 perspective you see a rash of heavy showers around 3pm tomorrow for Southern England:

And from the GFS 12z, CAPE looks reasonably high in those areas (~1000J/KG) and Lifted Index looks to be around -3 so if we get some sunshine to trigger things off there should be enough instability in the air to get these showers going! 

[dragon falls]

Very heavy down pour in Cardiff at the moment roads like rivers heavyest its been all day

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Tomorrow looking quite a bit better across much of Southern England for some potentially decent thundery downpours. After all, it is April, the sun is still going to get higher and stronger! We should look at this as a bonus strictly speaking.

Hope we really do have an awesome convective summer, it would make me feel rather happy!

[Panayiotis]

My crack at today's setup, with places in red having a better chance of seeing thunderstorms but anywhere in the orange section could see them! 

Edited April 27, 2014 by Panayiotis

[Convective]

Fairly good potential for places today

 

[Nick F]

Netweather Storm forecast for today:

 

 

Synopsis

Upper and collocated surface low over SW England this morning will continue to track SE towards N France. Heavy showers and thunderstorms will circulate around this low across southern Britain and Ireland today.

 

… IRELAND, WALES, S ENGLAND and MIDLANDS …

 

Cold air in the mid-levels across southern Britain and Ireland, associated with upper low moving SE, will create steep lapse rates and unstable airmass in the above areas. Although there are showers from the word go across southern England and S Wales this morning, deep convection will be limited by cool temperatures and cloud cover until sunshine breaks through to allow surface heating. GFS is indicating up towards 700 j/kg CAPE this afternoon across the above areas, but this will depend on how much surface heating develops. Nonetheless, there should be some sunny spells developing between showers, so expect some well-scattered thunderstorms to develop and spiral around the low towards southern Britain this afternoon. Vertical shear will be rather weak, so no severe weather is anticipated, although storms may produce hail, gusty winds and torrential rain with a risk of flooding.

 

Forecast issued in full here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Edited April 27, 2014 by Nick F