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Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st April 2014 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Leeds cell is a new one nothing to do with the former Sheffield storm.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside

Big shower developed just north of here and is trundling NEwards

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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

Had a decent half hour of lightning, hail, heavy rain and very loud rumbles of thunder.  Powerful flashes of lightning still coming out of the cell now over Doncaster but not as frequent.

 

Makes a nice change...

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Wow, I'm in east Leeds atm and there was a very close strike and instant, VERY loud thunder. Car alarms are going off. Just had another flash and bang. Roads are like rivers.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Castleford West Yorkshire
  • Location: Castleford West Yorkshire

Thunder heard in castleford, from leeds direction I think??

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

We've had several flashes and bangs now. Can I please leave the No Storms Club? :nonono:

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Had a decent half hour of lightning, hail, heavy rain and very loud rumbles of thunder.  Powerful flashes of lightning still coming out of the cell now over Doncaster but not as frequent.

 

Makes a nice change...

How much rain???

. Roads are like rivers.

Due to bad maintenance and blocked drains drizzle looks like a monsoon here.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Wonder what tomorrow may bring, seen as CAPE and LI values are set to be double what they have been today! That Sheffield storm looked a right goodun!

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Wonder what tomorrow may bring, seen as CAPE and LI values are set to be double what they have been today! That Sheffield storm looked a right goodun!

it wasn't bad EES,but still a storm non the less :D

 

it wasn't very active but it was very slow moving which was a bonus and it hung around here for a good hour or so,had a few overhead corkers though and trying to pinpoint the cam whilst filming in the right place was a bit frustrating(with the lack of intensity),but i did manage to get one lightning flash and thunder to go with it on film,uploading now so i will post as soon as it has done :D

 

i must have tried 20 odd times to get a clip :wallbash: ,but managed one,my partner thought i was nuts though :laugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Looking at the charts there does look to be some CAPE around, perhaps more so inland in areas bordering the Pennines. Nothing spectacular but enough to bring about a risk of thunderstorms.

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifukcapeli.png

 

When you then add to that the numerous convergence zones you then increase the risk, with areas along these zones being at the greatest risk (these zones are subject to some revision so I wouldn't take at face value).

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifukwind.png

 

There is very little shear so organised storms or severe weather would seem unlikely but showers and storms may continue to erupt in similar areas through the day and be slow moving and so localised flooding a possibility.

 

EDIT: WRF has the higher CAPE extending slightly further west than GFS with around 300-500j/kg by late afternoon.

That was pretty spot on SUPACELL,with the convergence :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside

Mettoffice seemed to have got the precipitation right today, so judging tomorrow, NW England from southern Lancashire through to Midlands then down to C/S England seem to be favoured at lunchtime tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Torrential shower just gone through , surprised by its intensity , nothing electrical yet !!.....

 

Just about to hit here.Surprised it has survived against the onslaught of a cold

wind off the North sea.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

GFS 18z still keeping with the theme of heavy thundery showers tomorrow, again most potent across central southern England. The place to be tomorrow probably around the Dorset area I think.

post-18097-0-46918300-1398895921_thumb.p

Edited by interestingweather
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

GFS 18z still keeping with the theme of heavy thundery showers tomorrow, again most potent across central southern England. The place to be tomorrow probably around the Dorset area I think.

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifukcapeli.png

Thank god the convection isn't until later. I would not like to have these at school.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

GFS 18z brings a somewhat downgrade in the amount of CAPE, however I find the GFS does downgrade in the amount CAPE avaliable on the 0z, so I still believe that there is a very good chance for a few decent storms today.

post-18097-0-36759500-1398925501_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

GFS 18z brings a somewhat downgrade in the amount of CAPE, however I find the GFS does downgrade in the amount CAPE avaliable on the 0z, so I still believe that there is a very good chance for a few decent storms today.

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifukcapeli.png

Hmm, that doesn't look so great. You might be setting your sights a little high. We'll just see what happens. Though, I doubt that anything will happen, here.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

ESTOFEX going with the 15% lightning area for most of England and Ireland today, no level 1.

post-18097-0-54106300-1398926285.txt

Edited by interestingweather
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

Hmm, that doesn't look so great. You might be setting your sights a little high. We'll just see what happens. Though, I doubt that anything will happen, here.

Maybe a little, loosing my confidence on today, although you can't really tell exactly where and how strong storms will be until later on. Just wishing convection will just wait till after school too.

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Showery rain moving in from the SW through the day, but the emphasis on the heavier thundery showers seems to have been pushed a bit further North than what was shown yesterday evening.

 

Midlands, C/S England and some parts of the SE looks like a good shout today whereas originally a fair portion of the W Country was in the firing line this afternoon/evening. Not much so from the overnight charts. Still, we will see what happens.

 

It is still way too early to lose confidence or call it a bust...you need to be looking at how things develop from mid-afternoon really. :)

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Estofex were never going to issue a level 1 for today as no severe "convective" weather is expected, although clearly there is a flood risk today due to the slow moving nature of showers and storms that do develop. With little or no wind shear I would expect to see thundery cells lose intensity and then regain intensity within quite short timescales. Much like yesterday, any convergence zones should help with identifying areas more at risk although generally the showers, and associated thunder threat, will be far more widespread today than yesterday with an area of low pressure sitting right over the top of us.

 

I think thunderstorms will be fairly numerous today and those that see them could be under them for some time, possibly long enough to witness the dying and strengthening cycle. This also means that other places may see no thundery activity at all whereas there is localised flooding just down the road.

 

Picking an area most at risk today is very difficult and I think anywhere south of Manchester to Hull is in with a chance. A very complicated picture and to be quite honest I am unsure of the best place, which does not help with me wanting to storm chase this afternoon.  

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