Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st April 2014 onwards

[Neilsouth]

Wasn't even in the risk area, so, indeed, nicely forecast.  

 

As I've advised before, perhaps you'd care to have a shot at forecasting yourself to see if you can do any better.  I certainly doubt it, but at least you can moan at yourself instead of here when you get it wrong.  :winky:

 

I've been spot on before, but you lot in your high and mighty we are never wrong forecasting chair always deny it! I will not keep going back over old posts again and again!

 

Thankfully we don't have the same level of storms as the states or we'd have a lot of lost lives in this country

[Neilsouth]

Anyway, I'm tired, grumpy and going to bed!

[Nick F]

 

Synopsis

 

Slow-moving upper and collocated surface low will be sat over northern France today, cold mid-level temperatures associated with proximity of upper low will produce steep lapse rates and an unstable airmass with surface heating across southern Britain today.

 

 

… S ENGLAND and S WALES …

 

 

Like Sunday, morning cloud cover will restrict any strong convective activity, but likely breaks in cloud cover will allow surface heating to make slack airmass unstable again by this afternoon, with GFS indicating up to 300-400 j/kg CAPE this afternoon across SW/S England. So heavy showers and thunderstorms will once again develop, with a risk of hail, gusty winds and torrential rain leading to localised flooding. Thunderstorms should die out after dusk.

 

Full forecast here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Edited April 28, 2014 by Nick F

[Supacell]

I've been spot on before, but you lot in your high and mighty we are never wrong forecasting chair always deny it! I will not keep going back over old posts again and again!

 

Thankfully we don't have the same level of storms as the states or we'd have a lot of lost lives in this country

 

I think this attack on the forecasters is a little over the top to be fair. 

 

When I go out storm chasing I use a mix of the forecasts from the more knowledgeable along with some of my own judgement. Sometimes I am wrong, and I see nothing - when this happens I am usually quite annoyed with myself even though I know I shouldn't be. If the forecasters are wrong, which does happen sometimes, I accept it. Truth be told nobody is perfect, nobody gets it right 100% of the time - if they did they would be millionaires. I think most of us on here are thankful to the likes of Weather09, Nick F etc. for the time they put in to share their thoughts with the rest of us. Remember, the UK is one of the hardest countries to predict the weather for and those that do so have a hard job to get it as close to accurate as possible.

 

Having said this, the forecasts I saw and read yesterday were all spot on with thundery activity highest in the west and areas such as Wales and SW England being in prime spot followed by the South and West Midlands. Nowhere did I see any mention of Kent getting thunderstorms, but what I did see from every forecaster was that yesterday was a low risk outlook - i.e. a higher risk that most will not see any thundery activity at all. I am no forecaster myself but I would think the States is easier to predict weather for due to it being a landmass as opposed to an Island.

 

Sorry for being OT but needed to be said IMO.

Edited April 28, 2014 by Supacell

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Well sun is out here much better start than yesterday  

[Mapantz]

I see a few showers are springing up around me?! Desperately need the sunshine to come through though, it's grey and miserable at the moment lol plenty of time though!

Warning out for a small area in the south west: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1398639600&regionName=sw

Edited April 28, 2014 by Mapantz

[Panayiotis]

I see a few showers are springing up around me?! Desperately need the sunshine to come through though, it's grey and miserable at the moment lol plenty of time though!

Warning out for a small area in the south west: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1398639600&regionName=sw

Weird how for that exact area, the winds are spiraling...tornado activity?

[boogercj]

That looks tantalisingly, but annoyingly west of me. Was up on Dartmoor yesterday arvo to catch a high view of the cloud formations. Alas, lots of rain showers & wind, but nothing exciting.

 

We'll see what happens this afternoon.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Looks like we have lift off on the South coast a very tasty cell popped up shame its moving out to sea.. would be a good indicator to see how it fairs though... 

 

Sun still out here and burning back this thin cloud!

[Mapantz]

Weird how for that exact area, the winds are spiraling...tornado activity?

Nicely indicating what the MO say about sea breezes meeting the prevailing wind, good to see the GFS close to the mark?! hehe

The parameters aren't there for anything significant but as weather09 eluded too, a funnel cloud cannot be ruled out.

The sun made an appearance not too long ago, despite the temps not being high, it felt quite sultry, dark clouds arrived shortly afterwards.

[Mapantz]

An sferic popped up over the IoW.

The bulk of cloud is moving West, so those breaks in the cloud are moving this way (sun back out right now)

Edited April 28, 2014 by Mapantz

[boogercj]

Pretty warm in the sun here; still a lot out high cloud cover.

 

Looking at the radar, it looks like things are starting to kick off around the Solent. Is that a sqall line to the E of Plymouth too?

Edited April 28, 2014 by boogercj

[TropicThunder]

Gone pretty dark here, looks and feels quite thundery but frustratingly it looks like that cell is skirting just to the south of me.

[TonyH]

A warm sunny 18c here in West Wales, convergence showers possible for this area as we progress through the afternoon as the sea breeze arrives. Still have the synoptic gradient east breeze currently which is why it is nice and warm!

[matty40s]

Sun has been hazy all morning West of Tamworth but it has suddenly come warm with it and big towers are starting to build

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just one slight problem with the storms sparking down on the south coast.. The upper winds will steer them away into the channel..   TYPICAL

[Mapantz]

15℃ now and things are beginning to bubble up! There's darker skies to the east/northeast of me..

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Very little serfics from those showers now beefed up... 

[Mapantz]

Getting quite a few strikes now, cannot hear anything yet though.

[boogercj]

Looking W & SW

 

[TonyH]

Dark developing Cu just north not on radar yet will be any mo!

[Mapantz]

First rumble heard to my south east, they're just bypassing me at the moment.

There they are!

Edited April 28, 2014 by Mapantz

[TonyH]

Cu to north seems inhibited and is flattening, looks just a light shower atm and still has not appeared on radar.

[DeepSnow]

Showers developing over us now the last one very heavy with large rain droplets! Also gave a flash and small rumble when it passed! Wonder if any decent storms will come over here though!

[big_treacle]

Just had a chunky shower with a few nice rumbles here in Poole. Still raining but brightening up a bit now.