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Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st April 2014 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

How is that game on? It's not exactly active near here and no sun!

 

Edited :(

Doesn't matter if its elevated, it could still give a light show, that looks like it may clip the likes of Norfolk later on.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Jay Wynne on the 3pm forecast still talking of thundery downpours in the same places - SE/EA/Midlands/NE...just popped outside again and no sign of this greyness clearing - quite chilly with cloud continuing to blow in from the NE

 

That's one aspect of BBC forecasts that infuriate me. They tend to blindly stick to the forecast, even when it looks apparent it's not going as they're saying.

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Those storms in Belgium could have been here if the forecasts had materialised, unfortunately the dreaded eastward shift occurred again. There is still the weekend, Sunday looks reasonable.

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

That's one aspect of BBC forecasts that infuriate me. They tend to blindly stick to the forecast, even when it looks apparent it's not going as they're saying.

 

Bit like here then :p

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Looks like today has gone up in smoke now then! What gets me is that all day those showers have been going directly NW, then as the 'thunderstorms' form, even with a NW veering surface low, they manage to skirt away from us. You just couldn't make it up. Always been the case. Yet again we are being avoided like the plague!

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Those storms in Belgium are spitting out a huge amounts of sferics. Blitzortung is showing the odd sferic between the Low Countries and UK and I suppose these could just skim the far east coast of EA later. Belgium and Holland definitely the place to be though currently.

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Indeed, those slight eastward revisions in low-level plume of warm moist air and steep lapse rates evident again on GFS (naturally). Euros keeping steady as always. Still, current synoptic output from UKM has waving frontal boundary overlapping far east Midlands, so places to the east and south-east, being placed within the warm sector, still sees a small chance of substantial CAPE build-up with surface heating during tomorrow afternoon. WRF-NMM a little optimistic to say the least in this regard - always take those progs with a pinch of salt. In terms of a severe convective risk, not overly convinced- both in terms of instability and shear. Concerning the latter, the winds, although clearly light and backed at the surface--increasing low-level shear and SRH--go from SE/SSE from 850hPa right through the mid-levels to a s'erly flow at 500hPa, increasing only modestly with ascent, therefore deep layer shear, both in terms of direction and speed, looks insufficient for mesocyclones or sustained organised updrafts. GFS's tor. and supercell parameters do still indicate the potential, though, as this rather modest shear and low-end instability is modeled to overlap. Outlook changing considerably with each run though. General thunderstorm risk extends into the evening hours with deep nocturnal convection likely if moisture-rich air mass and ascent is present over areas in question, but severe risk is limited to surface based convection during daylight hours.

Just thought it may be worthwhile quoting weather09's post from late yesterday evening. Quite technical but very good from a learning perspective :)I think once again it was a very good analysis of his for today's overall chances. Don't give up hope of seeing something later but equally I wouldnt get too hyped up about it.I think this weekend is looking quite good for some areas for heavy and potentially thundery showers. I'd much rather have something to hope for than absolutely no chances. Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

Thunder reported at Carmarthen  recently on Twitter, the downpours have been stuck (back building) there for the past 2 hours. Can see the mass to the south, dry and quite warm here 15c.

Edited by TonyH
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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

EGLL 251450Z 26007KT 4000 -RA SCT003 BKN004CB OVC005 12/11 Q1009

 

SCT at 300ft,  BKN CB at 400ft and OVC at 500ft, says it all. LOL!

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

EGLL 251450Z 26007KT 4000 -RA SCT003 BKN004CB OVC005 12/11 Q1009

 

SCT at 300ft,  BKN CB at 400ft and OVC at 500ft, says it all. LOL!

 

:mellow:

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

The forecast has been on the money, insofar that storms have erupted in the broad zone of risk where the sun has managed to come through.

 

Our problem is that caveat was only ever an 'if' and indeed the sun has managed to stay obscured.

 

Running the satellite loop there are no obvious breaks which are going to appear over the UK during meaningful daylight hours...if anything, looking up at the sky here its getting thicker/darker more than anything.

EGLL 251450Z 26007KT 4000 -RA SCT003 BKN004CB OVC005 12/11 Q1009

 

SCT at 300ft,  BKN CB at 400ft and OVC at 500ft, says it all. LOL!

 

Translation? lol :D

 

I'm guessing stratus crud - thick at 300ft, broken CB at 400ft, "oh very clear" at 500ft

Edited by Harry
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Looks like today has gone up in smoke now then! What gets me is that all day those showers have been going directly NW, then as the 'thunderstorms' form, even with a NW veering surface low, they manage to skirt away from us. You just couldn't make it up. Always been the case. Yet again we are being avoided like the plague!

 

The reason I think that has happened is all thanks to the low moving in from the West.. As you can see clearly on the sat loop its pushing the cloud bank East! SO now you want any t-storms to fire over the channel or The very North west of France...

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

BBC forecast 20c for London this afternoon, it has been gloomy all day here ............12.9c with light rain, not thundery rain! Good old Beeb raising everyone's hopes only for bugger all to happen. :( Reminds me of their snow forecasts in the winter!

Edited by lassie23
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Posted
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder Storms. All extreme weather.
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)

That lot off Belgium looks as though it'll miss us. Flaming typical! I really hope this isn't setting a pattern for rest of Spring/ Summer. I'm going to be seriously peed off if it is. :(

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

The forecast has been on the money, insofar that storms have erupted in the broad zone of risk where the sun has managed to come through.

 

Very true. To be fair the forecasters were always saying "if the sun manages to break through". It was always marginal and this time the cloud won out.

 

Sunday's offering is a different ball game, with an area of low pressure filling to the S and a sunshine and showers scenario. This means no cloud shield blocking out the sun and a much better chance of getting some decent thundery showers somewhere in the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Hmm...cant find a reliable radar for N France, but running the visible satellite does look vaguely like the clouds becoming a bit 'lumpy' - perhaps possible developments?

 

No sferics and based on the meteox radar which is meh!, no meaningful precipitation to write home about either.

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Hmm...cant find a reliable radar for N France, but running the visible satellite does look vaguely like the clouds becoming a bit 'lumpy' - perhaps possible developments?

 

No sferics and based on the meteox radar which is meh!, no meaningful precipitation to write home about either.

Hi Harry, heres a rainfall radar i use for europe. http://www.radareu.cz/

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

post-15177-0-38395500-1398442044_thumb.p post-15177-0-94766400-1398442074_thumb.g

 

This morning's NMM is not too far off the current radar..

 

post-15177-0-07147800-1398442378_thumb.p post-15177-0-86664900-1398442389_thumb.p

Edited by Mapantz
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