May 2014 CET thread

[BornFromTheVoid]

With a minimum today of 6.4C, and maxima likely to reach the mid 17s, we should remain on 11.3C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

11.4C to the 15th (12.5)

11.6C to the 16th (14.6)

11.8C to the 17th (15.5)

12.0C to the 18th (15.1)

12.2C to the 19th (16.2)

12.4C to the 20th (15.3)

12.6C to the 21st (17.2)

 

As Milhouse mentioned, some very mild night helping to sent the CET upward.

[Summer Sun]

11.3c to the 14th

 

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 11.5c to the 15th

 

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average

[hillbilly]

Both 1943 and 1945 had registered 30 degrees by this  date!!!!

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Summer Sun, our prediction of 12.9C is starting to look too conservative!

We might be averaging that by next weekend at this rate..

[DAVID SNOW]

Summer Sun, our prediction of 12.9C is starting to look too conservative!We might be averaging that by next weekend at this rate..

 

And before that the Atlantic will be back in charge bringing temps back down to........... normal............

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 11.7c to the 16th

 

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 11.9c to the 17th

 

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

 

With some warm nights to come the CET should continue its upward trend a good few days yet

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 11.6C just trailing as it should.

[Milhouse]

Will be close for the warmest Spring on record which would be remarkable considering 2011, just 3 years ago, holds the current record. If things carry on this way then 2014 will be heading towards the warmest year on record but a long way to go.

[damianslaw]

Will be close for the warmest Spring on record which would be remarkable considering 2011, just 3 years ago, holds the current record. If things carry on this way then 2014 will be heading towards the warmest year on record but a long way to go.

 

Yes its been a very mild start to 2014 and we've had consistently above average temps in the main since July. The last very mild 12 month spell came in April 2011- March 2012, but there followed a much cooler 12 month spell, it was also preceded by a cool 12 month spell. Going further back the warmest 12 month spell on record I think was May 2006- April 2007, this too was followed by a cooler few months but then another mild spell roughly Nov 07- May 08 with a cool blip in April, but then quite an average/cool spell.

 

I'll be surprised therefore if we continue the lengthy very warm spell throughout the rest of 2014, but may just like 2006-2008 period see just a temporary cool down.

 

We did see a very lengthy warm 24 month period in 1989 and 1990 though.

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 12.1c to the 18th

 

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

[Interitus]

Yes its been a very mild start to 2014 and we've had consistently above average temps in the main since July. The last very mild 12 month spell came in April 2011- March 2012, but there followed a much cooler 12 month spell, it was also preceded by a cool 12 month spell. Going further back the warmest 12 month spell on record I think was May 2006- April 2007, this too was followed by a cooler few months but then another mild spell roughly Nov 07- May 08 with a cool blip in April, but then quite an average/cool spell.

 

I'll be surprised therefore if we continue the lengthy very warm spell throughout the rest of 2014, but may just like 2006-2008 period see just a temporary cool down.

 

We did see a very lengthy warm 24 month period in 1989 and 1990 though.

 

2013 was generally the culmination of a spell of consistently cooler weather in terms of running averages, more so than 2010 surprisingly. 2013 was the first year without a running annual CET (from daily values) above 10°C at some point during the year, since 1988, after 24 consecutive years.

As a result this year started at around 9.61°C but has recovered to 10.75°C which is quite high but still down in 17th place.

Of the 16 years which contain higher values, 11 have been in the last quarter of a century since 1988, and only 5 in the previous 217 years.....

 

The year May 3rd 2006 - May 2nd 2007 had a daily average of about 11.67°C miles ahead of 11.11°C between 28th October 1994 - 27th October 1995.

 

One would suspect that a couple of cooler months would crop up some time this year and there have only been 10 years without a running mean below 10°C at some point, however within this is the unprecedented period above 10°C between January 20th 2002 - December 5th 2008, nearly seven years.

Edited May 19, 2014 by Interitus

[Lettucing Gutted]

One would suspect that a couple of cooler months would crop up some time this year and there have only been 10 years without a running mean below 10°C at some point, however within this is the unprecedented period above 10°C between January 20th 2002 - December 5th 2008, nearly seven years.

I sure as hell hope we don't get another repeat of January 20th 2002 - December 5th 2008 again anytime soon.

Edited May 20, 2014 by Craig Evans

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 12.4c to the 19th

 

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

 

Wouldn't be surprised if we end up with another month 2c+ above the 61 to 90 average only January came below 2c at 1.9c above average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 12.2C a few days of rising here then it should stagnate looking at the latest GFS

[damianslaw]

Well another comfortably above average CET month looks in the bag, but probably not quite with the same margins as recent ones. This pattern of above average months must break at some stage. Odds on July? August?

[damianslaw]

I sure as hell hope we don't get another repeat of January 20th 2002 - December 5th 2008 again anytime soon.

 

The 7 year period in question brought some wonderful summer weather, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006 - however, we did see very little in the way of cold snowy weather. Yes take away those summers and it isn't a repeat I'd like to see anytime soon. I would also say roughly May 88 - May 95 also a 7 year period in the main I wouldn't like repeated taking out the summers of 1989 and 1990 and Feb 91 (winter 90/91 overall very overrated). The period as a whole in the north at least was dominated by the atlantic, though things did get more interesting in the second half of 1993 for cold synoptics and we did see some colder synoptics in Nov 88 and Oct 92.

 

Sorry to go on about other years...

[DAVID SNOW]

Well another comfortably above average CET month looks in the bag, but probably not quite with the same margins as recent ones. This pattern of above average months must break at some stage. Odds on July? August?

 

Yes,May  could end up around 12.5 then an average June followed by a rather cool July and August........ Just my opinion though.

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 12.5c to the 20th

 

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

May looks to be heading into the high 12s as my guess. It is rare for the CET to not rise for the last 10 days of the month during spring.  Having said that the CET is going to stop rising for the next few days by the look of things, so it will depend in the final 4-5 days of the month.

Edited May 21, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 12.6c to the 21st

 

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

Down to 12.5c to the 22nd

 

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

[DAVID SNOW]

Could end up about 12.2 after a downward correction.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 12.4C as off today. Should be a slight fall Saturday if the present forecast comes true. But overall I don't expect any change by the end of Monday.