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damianslaw

May 2014 CET thread

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Probably just about the right time for the May 2014 CET thread.

 

Would appreciate someone posting the CET average for 61-90, 71-00 and 81-10.

 

Please use this thread to post your thoughts, musings and predictions for the upcoming May CET value.

 

May like April, tends to be our most unpredictable month weatherwise and always a difficult one to predict CET wise. It is however, by far my favourite month of the year, one always welcomed with eager anticipation.

 

Recent May's since 2008 have been very varied, generally unsettled in the main but with a handful of very warm settled spells.

 

Not sure about this May, our long run of appreciably above average CET months has to come to an end at some point..

Edited by damianslaw
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CET May averages and other statistics

 

21.2 ... warmest daily mean (29th, 1780)

 

Warmest months

 

1. 15.1 (1833) ... by a large margin the most decisive (1.2 deg) of the twelve warmest months
2. 13.9 (1848)
3. 13.8 (1788, 1758)
5. 13.7 (1808)

6. 13.6 (1992, 1727) ... This tied for sixth place is the weakest showing of any of the twelve calendar months for the modern (post 1960) era, the second least impressive modern showing is fifth place in January and June. However, for post-1980, June doesn't show up until 18th place.

 

 

Averages

 

11.9 ... 2001-2013 average

11.7 ... 1981-2010 average, 2012 CET

11.6 ...

11.5 ...

11.4 ... 1901-2000 average

11.3 ... 1971-2000 average, 1701-1800 average

11.2 ... 1961-1990 average, 1659-1700 average

11.1 ... 1801-1900 average

11.0 ...

 

10.4 ... 2013 CET

 

Coldest Months

 

13. 9.1 (1996 tied with two other years, the coldest in recent years)

5.. 8.9 (1879, 1885, 1902)

4.. 8.8 (1855)

3.. 8.7 (1817)

2.. 8.6 (1740)

1.. 8.5 (1698)

 

 

3.5 .... mean for 3-5 May, 1877

2.9 .... coldest daily mean (8th, 1861)

 

--- will post my forecast later ---

 

 

 

 

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11.2 please. :)

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Rest in pieces 'winter' 2013/2014!  Rest in pieces 'spring' 2014!  15.5C  :(

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
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11.5 for me

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Below is the May CET in blue, the 10 year mean in red/orange and the linear trend in black.

 

Posted Image

 

The correlation between April and May is just 0.11, the lowest of any consecutive monthly pairs. This means that the April CET has very little predictive value when it comes to May.

 

April CET looks like finishing somewhere between 9.4C and 10.4C. The average May following an April CET in that range is 11.3C.

 

The current run without a May CET below 9C, 111 years, is the longest on record. The 2nd longest is 76 years, from 1741 to 1816, with the 3rd longest being 41 years, from 1699 to 1839.

The current run without a CET of 10.0C or lower is the 3rd longest on record at 17 years. The second longest is 16 years, from 1783 to 1798, while the longest is 20 years, from 1903 to 1922.

 

 

 

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I should have said this 4 years ago but the run without a May CET below 11.0C from 1997 through 2009 was the longest on record.

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i think its going to be a mixt may. So i'm going for. 11.5c.

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Another relatively warm month to come. 12.7C, 1C above the 1981-2010 average.

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May is often a tricky to like April with some pretty big temperature swings I'm going to go for this above average run to continue though it will be a chilly start

 

12.9c for me just got a hunch we'll see something more settled and warmer developing around mid month

Edited by Summer Sun

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Hard one this as may actually have a cold start to May. Mmmm going for 12.3C still on the mild side.

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One thing to note is that it's been a long time since we've had a warm second half to May, even in 08 while the first half was brilliant the second half was not far from average.

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One thing to note is that it's been a long time since we've had a warm second half to May, even in 08 while the first half was brilliant the second half was not far from average.

It depends how you define 'warm'. 2010 had a second half with a mean of 13.1C. Its often forgotten though as it was a cool month overall due to the first 15 days averaging 8.1C.

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