May 2014 CET thread

[Roger J Smith]

As warm as May 1833 was (15.1) the CET that month stood as high as 15.6 on the 25th before falling back, the last six days of the month averaged only 13.1 C. And in May 1947 (13.5) the month only reached 10.2 after six days, the 31-day month from 7 May to 6 June averaged 15.2 C.

[Summer Sun]

10.8c to the 2nd

 

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

[summer blizzard]

I'm pretty sure the first half of May 08 averaged almost 15C.

[Summer Sun]

9.9c to the 3rd

 

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

[Roger J Smith]

I'm pretty sure the first half of May 08 averaged almost 15C.

 

Close enough, the CET stood at 15.1 on the 12th and 15.0 on the 13th, then started to fall away, it was 14.6 after the 15th and 14.3 after the 16th. Then it dropped as low as 13.2 where it stood most of the last ten days before recovering a bit to reach the final resting place of 13.3 C.

 

The mean from 4th to 12th was 16.5 C.

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 10.3c to the 4th

 

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 10.5c to the 5th

 

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the rolling CET compared to the rolling CET values of 1801-2000, 1901-2000, 1961-1990 and 1981-2010.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

10.9C to the 6th, which is 1.0C above the 1801-2000, 1901-2000 and 1961-90 averages, and 0.3C above the 81-2000 average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2014

 

 

With a min today of 8.7C and maxima likely to reach the low 15s, we should see an increase to 11 or 11.1C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

11.2C to the 8th (12.3)

11.3C to the 9th (12.3)

11.3C to the 10th (10.7)

11.2C to the 11th (10.4)

11.0C to the 12th (9.0)

10.9C to the 13th (9.8]

10.8C to the 14th (9.5)

 

[Summer Sun]

11.0c to the 7th

 

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[Milhouse]

Its often the case that during a warm period like now its funny how we see to get positive anomalies despite it never feeling that warm. This May hasnt felt that warm and we are still 1c above average, albeit the 60-91 average.

[reef]

Its often the case that during a warm period like now its funny how we see to get positive anomalies despite it never feeling that warm. This May hasnt felt that warm and we are still 1c above average, albeit the 60-91 average.

 

I think its more to do with expectations being higher after a string of very warm (and dry) springs.

 

Here for example the mean maximum for the first 7 days of May is only 13.9C but even with the first three cool days the mean so far this year is 14.7C.

 

There hasn't really been any very warm days though so far this spring. Like 2009 its mostly a case of consistently warmer than normal without any real standout days. Indeed, the 18.2C we reached here a couple of days ago was actually the highest maximum of the year so far.

 

Still, we're a long way off 1983, 1984, 1986 and 1988 which all failed to reach 20C before the second or third week in June!

[summer blizzard]

I think its more to do with expectations being higher after a string of very warm (and dry) springs.

 

Here for example the mean maximum for the first 7 days of May is only 13.9C but even with the first three cool days the mean so far this year is 14.7C.

 

There hasn't really been any very warm days though so far this spring. Like 2009 its mostly a case of consistently warmer than normal without any real standout days. Indeed, the 18.2C we reached here a couple of days ago was actually the highest maximum of the year so far.

 

Still, we're a long way off 1983, 1984, 1986 and 1988 which all failed to reach 20C before the second or third week in June!

 

This spring's probably closer to 11 than 09 or 07. It's been nice with a fair amount of sunshine and not massive amounts of rain but it's not been exceptional. 09 was a very dull and boring spring, 07 was a standout spring. 11 was bar the April CET a nice but unexceptional spring.

[reef]

This spring's probably closer to 11 than 09 or 07. It's been nice with a fair amount of sunshine and not massive amounts of rain but it's not been exceptional. 09 was a very dull and boring spring, 07 was a standout spring. 11 was bar the April CET a nice but unexceptional spring.

I can only speak for this area, but out of Springs 2007, 2009 and 2011, every month other than May 2007 were all warmer, drier and sunnier than average, in some cases by a long way.

 

Here, all three springs had more than 120% sunshine, less than 60% of normal rainfall and were more than 1.0C above average. To maintain that weather over three months shows how exceptional they were. Even the less notable springs in recent years had good months (e.g. May 2008, April 2010 and March 2012).

 

Hence my original comment of how recent springs have altered expectations of what normal weather is.

[Summer Sun]

11.2c to the 8th

 

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

[Summer Sun]

up-to 11.3c to the 9th

 

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average

[damianslaw]

Its been a preety cool feeling start to May here, with maximum temperatures held below 13 degrees, however, apart from a couple of cold nights, most nights have been quite mild around the 8-10 degree mark which is helping to keep mean temperatures above average. Quite often the CET value doesn't often reflect the actual feel of things, warm maxima can be cancelled out by cool minima, at this time of year such conditions feel very good, whereas by this time of year, cool maxima mild minima days make it feel chilly and its often a surprise to see the CET saying above average. Under the rainy weather so far this month, we have often seen temperatures between 8-10 degrees, jolly chilly, many a warmer day in November and even December under similar conditions.

 

The spring as a whole so far has been notable for its consistent warmth, without ever being particularly warm. We have yet to see 20 degrees, coming very close on Mothers day. We usually see this figure breached by about mid May, and there is a chance we might see it later next week if we see decent sunshine.

 

In recent years, May has often delivered a spell of wonderful weather, I remember 2012 when we recorded our warmest temperatures of the year at the end of the month - what an abysmal shocking summer we had in 2012. Indeed late May on many an occasion has delivered some of our best weather of the whole year, you can't beat a warm settled spell at the end of May into June - its a wonderful time of year, the start of the summer etc... fingers crossed we see a change in fortunes by then in time for the bank holiday.

Edited May 10, 2014 by damianslaw

[Summer Sun]

up-to 11.4c to the 10th

 

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

11.3C to the 11th (that's 1.1C above the 1801-2000 and 1901-2000 average, 1.0C above the 61-90 average, and 0.6C above the 1981-2010 average)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2014

 

 

With a minimum today of 7.4C, and maxima likely to  reach the mid 14s, we should remain on 11.3C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

11.2C to the 13th (9.7)

11.2C to the 14th (11.8]

11.2C to the 15th (11.6)

11.4C to the 16th (14.1)

11.6C to the 17th (14.6)

11.5C to the 18th (10.3)

11.4C to the 19th (8.2)

 

I reckon the 1st will be the high point for the month unfortunately.

 

[hillbilly]

I think the reason that this may is above average is the lack of night time minima and not due to any warm daytime spells.Most mays are typically colder at night yet have better days!

[March Blizzard]

I think the reason that this may is above average is the lack of night time minima and not due to any warm daytime spells.Most mays are typically colder at night yet have better days!

Story of the year so far, that!

[Summer Sun]

11.3 to the 12th

 

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average

[Milhouse]

The CET would rocket upwards early next week if the GFS 0z is correct. Some very mild nights in store.

[Summer Sun]

11.3c to the 13th

 

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average