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May 2014 CET thread


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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

12.4C please.

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

12.5c please

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

11.6C thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton, W Mids (123m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Fog, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton, W Mids (123m asl)

I'll go for 12.3C, don't think anyone's said that one yet. :) Cooler mid month before we have a warm thundery spell at the end.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

The table of forecasts will be posted in a minute or two over in the scoring thread. I have it ready except for adding in any very recent entries, a few minutes ago there had been 56 entries with the median at 12.1 C. Check the table for the updated values.

 

Meanwhile, these are the (rounded) daily averages for each day 1981-2010 with the running monthly mean in brackets.

 

 

1981-2010 CET May averages

 

 

DATE ____ AVG ___ CUM AVG (1st to date shown)

 

__ 01 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.6

__ 02 ___ 10.4 ___ 10.5

__ 03 ___ 10.5 ___ 10.5

__ 04 ___ 10.3 ___ 10.5

__ 05 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.5

__ 06 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.6

__ 07 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.7

__ 08 ___ 10.9 ___ 10.7

__ 09 ___ 10.7 ___ 10.7

__ 10 ___ 10.8 ___ 10.7

__ 11 ___ 11.1 ___ 10.7

__ 12 ___ 11.3 ___ 10.8

__ 13 ___ 11.6 ___ 10.8

__ 14 ___ 11.7 ___ 10.9

__ 15 ___ 11.7 ___ 11.0

__ 16 ___ 11.5 ___ 11.0

__ 17 ___ 11.3 ___ 11.0

__ 18 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.0

__ 19 ___ 11.8 ___ 11.1

__ 20 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.1

__ 21 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.2

__ 22 ___ 12.2 ___ 11.2

__ 23 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.3

__ 24 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.4

__ 25 ___ 12.5 ___ 11.4

__ 26 ___ 12.4 ___ 11.5

__ 27 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.5

__ 28 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.5

__ 29 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.6

__ 30 ___ 13.1 ___ 11.6

__ 31 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.7

 

Notice that the daily means are not a steady unbroken rise with the increasing solar angle, there are peaks evident around the 6th-7th, 20th and a much more prominent peak 23rd-24th. These are much more subdued in the cumulative data which do tend to show more or less a regular progression.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Late this time  :closedeyes:  ill say 12.2c

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

14.0C

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh

10.9

 

awful. wet. northern blocked. cool. 

Edited by New Forest Gump
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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

Its worth noting that for this spring to be the warmest on record (beating 2011 which was 10.23C) we only require May to come in at 12.9C.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

For all folk that's late, it's a 1000 lines and detention lol!!!

 

Posted Image

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

With a minimum today of 6.8C, and maxima likely to hit the mid 12s, we should see a drop to around 10.8C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

 

9.5C to the 3rd (6.9)

9.6C to the 4th (9.7)

9.8C to the 5th (10.9)

10.3C to the 6th (12.4)

10.4C to the 7th (11.1)

10.5C to the 8th (11.1)

10.5C to the 9th (11.2)

 

If that 6.9C daily mean is correct for the 3rd, it will be the first day this year more than 1 standard deviation below the 1772-2013 average (compared to 26 days already at least 1 standard deviation above the 1772-2013 average)

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