Arctic Ice Discussion 2014: the thaw...

[oldsnowywizard]

Tbh I wasn't expecting ice to start plateauing out this early.. If you look at the sst anomalies you will see lots of reds indicating quite large temp differences...This should indicate that ice growth would be very restricted..perhaps as the anomaly maps are based on an average over years..maybe 30,20 or even 10 years ago these areas would be ice covered and therefore it stands to reason the ssts anomalies are higher as there is no ice ? Anyway I'm sure there is a debate about that ... ? In any case temps are indeed dropping on a daily basis and no warm incursions forecast at the moment... could this be a good recovery after all? Despite the milder winter last year, despite the poor ice state? Let's hope so and let's hope for a cold Winter up there ! ( if Russia turns of the gas I think everyone would prefer a mild winter )

[karyo]

Tbh I wasn't expecting ice to start plateauing out this early.. If you look at the sst anomalies you will see lots of reds indicating quite large temp differences...This should indicate that ice growth would be very restricted..perhaps as the anomaly maps are based on an average over years..maybe 30,20 or even 10 years ago these areas would be ice covered and therefore it stands to reason the ssts anomalies are higher as there is no ice ? Anyway I'm sure there is a debate about that ... ? In any case temps are indeed dropping on a daily basis and no warm incursions forecast at the moment... could this be a good recovery after all? Despite the milder winter last year, despite the poor ice state? Let's hope so and let's hope for a cold Winter up there ! ( if Russia turns of the gas I think everyone would prefer a mild winter )

Yes, a surprising and pleasing end to summer 2014!

[Geordiesnow]

Ice bottoming out is not unusual though as we head into the final few days of August into September, obviously a number of factors come into play like ice spreading out, some isolated refreezing and of course compaction which can reduce ice extent there is a couple of fairly cold pools at the moment on both sides of the Arctic with the central Arctic, Laptev and the Canadian Arctic islands in particular quite a bit milder. With favorable winds and cold air, ice in parts of the Pacific side of the Arctic could start to spread out with some refreezing possible also but there could be some compaction also in the Beaufort sea. 

 

Where ever the extent ends up, still can't help it was a missed opportunity for a higher extent with those 3 weeks during August with some of the worse set ups for the sea ice since 2007 causing quite a bit of melt on the Pacific side of the Arctic however i'm still surprised extent did not drop more than it did though. 

[karyo]

The bottoming out is even more evident today!

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

Karyo

[Geordiesnow]

The bottoming out is even more evident today!

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

Karyo

 

With some strong lows projected there is still a chance of some compaction but with fairly cold conditions still forecast then hopefully we can still finish above 2009/2013(on NSIDC) even though its going to be a close run thing. 

 

I did say earlier in the season that if we are going to finish above 2013 then it will be largely down to the ice on the Atlantic side of the basin and this is proven to be the case unlike in 2013 where the retreat was quite severe and impressive in many ways. The retreat in the Laptev Bite is also impressive but on the other hand, the ice held on better than I thought in the East Siberian Sea despite an unusually positioned polynya appearing there. 

 

The melt season is still not over as shown by 2010 and 2005 but at least we are in a 2nd successive year where we did not threaten to get below 2007 after 2012's record low. 

Edited August 31, 2014 by Geordiesnow

[Interitus]

Back to the Northwest Passage and a number of craft are attempting it this year. Logically most take more southerly routes, but whilst they are floundering in scattered ice fields waiting for suitable conditions to advance or retreat, it actually looks from satellite imagery in the last couple of days that it may be possible to tiptoe through the 'original' northern route through the Parry Channel and McClure Strait.

 

A shift in winds have now opened the southern route through Bellot Strait this weekend - http://cornellsailing.com/category/aventura-logs/

[4wd]

The official predictions early on pointed to another recovery year or at least similar to last year, because there is now much more multi-year ice again.
Volumes are also increasing considerably as a result.
It was only the usual suspects here and on the hate blogs trying to convince us there would be huge melts again (I seem to recall under 3m km² being predicted ... 

This is alll somewhat contrary to what the supposed experts were saying not very long ago.
They will be curiously silent just now I expect.

 

 

 

Xinhua News Agency – 1 March 2008
“If Norway’s average temperature this year equals that in 2007, the ice cap in the Arctic will all melt away, which is highly possible judging from current conditions,†Orheim said.
[Dr. Olav Orheim - Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat]
__________________

Canada.com – 16 November 2007
“According to these models, there will be no sea ice left in the summer in the Arctic Ocean somewhere between 2010 and 2015.

“And it’s probably going to happen even faster than that,†said Fortier,â€â€
[Professor Louis Fortier - Université Laval, Director ArcticNet]
__________________

National Geographic – 12 December 2007
“NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.†â€
[Dr. Jay Zwally - NASA]
__________________

BBC – 12 December 2007
“Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,â€â€¦â€¦.â€So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.â€
[Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]
__________________

National Snow and Ice Data Center – 5 May 2008
“Could the North Pole be ice free this melt season? Given that this region is currently covered with first-year ice, that seems quite possible.â€
__________________

National Geographic News – 20 June 2008
North Pole May Be Ice-Free for First Time This Summer
“We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history],†David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, told National Geographic News aboard the C.C.G.S. Amundsen, a Canadian research icebreaker.
[Dr. David Barber]
__________________

Independent – 27 June 2008
Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer
“…..It is quite likely that the North Pole will be exposed this summer – it’s not happened before,†Professor Wadhams said.â€
[Professor Peter Wadhams - Cambridge University]
__________________

Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment Report – 2009
“…There is a possibility of an ice-free Arctic Ocean for a short period in summer perhaps as early as 2015. This would mean the disappearance of multi-year ice, as no sea ice would survive the summer melt season….â€

http://www.arctis-search.com/Arctic+Marine+Shipping+Assessment+%28AMSA%29

__________________

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
Vol. 40: 625-654 – May 2012
The Future of Arctic Sea Ice
“…..one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover…..â€
[Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]
__________________

Guardian – 11 August 2012
“Very soon we may experience the iconic moment when, one day in the summer, we look at satellite images and see no sea ice coverage in the Arctic, just open water.â€
[Dr Seymour Laxon - Centre for Polar Observation & Modelling - UCL]
__________________

Yale Environment360 – 30 August 2012
“If this rate of melting [in 2012] is sustained in 2013, we are staring down the barrel and looking at a summer Arctic which is potentially free of sea ice within this decade,â€
[Dr. Mark Drinkwater]
__________________

Guardian – 17 September 2012
“This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates“.
[Professor Peter Wadhams - Cambridge University]
__________________

Sierra Club – March 23, 2013
“For the record—I do not think that any sea ice will survive this summer. An event unprecedented in human history is today, this very moment, transpiring in the Arctic Ocean….â€
[Paul Beckwith - PhD student paleoclimatology and climatology - part-time professor]
__________________

Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,â€
[Professor Peter Wadhams - Cambridge University]
__________________

The Scotsman – 12 September 2013
“The entire ice cover is now on the point of collapse.
…….It is truly the case that it will be all gone by 2015. The consequences are enormous and represent a huge boost to global warming.â€
[Professor Peter Wadhams - Cambridge University]

[BornFromTheVoid]

The official predictions early on pointed to another recovery year or at least similar to last year, because there is now much more multi-year ice again.

Volumes are also increasing considerably as a result.

It was only the usual suspects here and on the hate blogs trying to convince us there would be huge melts again (I seem to recall under 3m km² being predicted ... 

This is alll somewhat contrary to what the supposed experts were saying not very long ago.

They will be curiously silent just now I expect.

 

 

15 "predictions".

The first says if the temperatures match 2007... that didn't happen, so that doesn't count.

The 2nd says between 2010 and 2015, 2015 hasn't happened yet, so that doesn't count.

3rd says it could be nearly ice free if it continues at the current rate. It didn't. But, 2012 had an area of just over 2 million km2. Considering 1 million is considered effectively ice free, he was pretty damn close anyway!

The 4th was cearly wrong, yep, so that's 1/4 so far

The next 3 refer to the north pole, not the Arctic. And are coulds, mays and mights, nothing definitive. 1/7

Then we have a prediction from 2015, then 2016, then just very soon. So that 1/10 that's wrong so far and only 7 of those about the entire Arctic.

The next says if the melting rate of 2013 is sustained, which it wasn't so that doesn't count. 1/11

Then another prediction for 2015/16, that hasn't happened yet, so that doesn't count. 1/12

A PhD student is hardly an expert, so that doesn't count 1/13

Two more for 2015 from Wadhams, which hasn't happened yet. 1/15

 

So from all the cherry picked excerpts trawled through by the professional anti-AGW bloggers, they found 1 incorrect forecast for ice free conditions from the thousands of interviews, articles and papers.... well done to them!

 

You refer to blogs you disagree with as hate blogs, yet you get most of your data from WUWT and the like. Are you really so biased you cannot see the hypocrisy in that? What about the abuse that the climate contrarians at WUWT, climatedepot, Heartland and such pour on scientists? The hatemail campaigns they direct at various scientists and reporters? Are you blind to that? You get your data from them but call other sources hate blogs!?

[Midlands Ice Age]

  Four

 

It looks like you are one year to previous with your post!!!

 

I make it that BFTV has disqualified at least 10 and possibly 12 of your citations on the basis that they haven't happened yet. !

 

To me at looks as if  that is a bit previous unless he believes the papers are correct!

 

I do see where BFTV is coming from though. However BFTV  it was not Four who cherry picked the data . It was the pro- warmers in the press and BBC who escalated some of these items (all relatively small papers apart from Prof W) to national news headlines some 3 to 9 years ago. I well remember being told by warmist friends  in discussions that we had to do something immediately if we were to evert disaster!  They had seen it on the news!!

 

That was when the cherry picking exercise took place. Not now.

 

MIA.

[reef]

There seems to be quite a disconnect between sea ice extent and area at the moment. A look at the sea ice area on cryosphere shows the area plummeting at the moment and close to passing the low of last year, while the extent seems remarkably stable:

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_v2_prev_L.png

 

Not sure what would cause that, but interesting nonetheless.

[knocker]

Ever sailed to 85N?

 

Despite this being the second melting season that rebounds from the spectacular sea ice loss event of 2012, there have been some notable events that characterize this melting season. We may have already become used to these events, but may do well to remember that they were much rarer before 2007.

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/09/ever-sailed-to-85n.html

[minus 9]

How can 1 million sq kilometres of ice mean the artic is ice free. What ever next........

[Gray-Wolf]

The '1 million or less' benchmark for the 'ice free Arctic' is set by the Arctic Scientists themselves and takes into account the coastal ice that remains at summers end along with the odd bit of sea ice. If you looked at a map of the basin with only 1 million sq km of ice inside that huge area you would see it as 'ice free'.

 

So long as this 'benchmark' does not change ( goal post moving) then I do not see a problem with it at all?

 

When we get to this threshold I would only expect ice to be common along the Greenland north coast/Canadian Archipelago with other areas only retaining ice as a product of local weather conditions over that summer?

[minus 9]

Thanks for the reply gw.the artic keeps surprising many. I for one dont think we will get below 1 million sq kilometres for a very long time. Quite a few scientists thought we would be ice free(in summer) by now. There's no denying the summer ice is on the decline over the last 30 years.but look at the Antarctic. No one is capable of reading the future.

[Geoffwood]

Knocker. Hi.

Do you not feel that neven is a little short sighted, in the 'assumption' that sea ice in the Arctic will one day soon, just melt away?

The discussions there about the rate at which the final days of summer Arctic ice will pan out are the stuff of pure fantasy.

Most of the area of ice missing from the Arctic during this current 'natural' warm period are along the North Atlantic seaboard during the final stages of the 'naturally' occurring Atlantic Multidecadal (AMO) at the end of the current warm period. With a declining AMO inevitable and a reduction in both TSI and continued reduction in stratospheric temperatures mixed through the winter vortex, the full recovery of Arctic sea ice is inevitable.

[Geoffwood]

minus 9.

Although I agree that most are incorrect about the predictions for the Arctic there are several periodic cycles retrievable from proxy data sets. These natural cycles involve resonances with external solar system drivers. Some are predictable and stand to be tested alongside the fiction of 'greenhouse gas forcing' at this point in time.

Interesting decade ahead.

[be cause]

It's looking increasingly likely that the volcanic activity on our near neighbour Iceland could affect the whole nature of weather and climate in the Arctic and potentially much closer to home .

[knocker]

PIOMAS September 2014

 

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/09/piomas-september-2014.html

[4wd]

 

Last year's rebound had all but disappeard at the start of this year's melting season, but with the minimum just around the corner, this year's even larger rebound is bound to have consequences for at least the next melting season

[stewfox]

It's looking increasingly likely that the volcanic activity on our near neighbour Iceland could affect the whole nature of weather and climate in the Arctic and potentially much closer to home .

 

Do you have a link to the peer reviewed paper/s for such a assumption ?

[knocker]

 

 

Last year's rebound had all but disappeard at the start of this year's melting season, but with the minimum just around the corner, this year's even larger rebound is bound to have consequences for at least the next melting season

 

 

I'm not entirely clear why you selected a snippet from the report (well I am really). Are you assuming the rest of us can't read and digest anything longer?

[Geoffwood]

knocker. Seeing as you like PIOMAS so much, why didn't you link to this graph?

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst.png

Looks like this years temperatures are 'so high' in the Arctic that the ice is growing thicker, no?

[Geoffwood]

I love it when educated people like those over at PIOMAS open their publicly viewable domain with a graph showing a linear trend superimposed upon a complex signal. Wow!

All those educated statistical mathematicians deriving a linear trend from the sum of complex functions. Such is the nature of the opinion they are directing upon the public.

Nature rarely does linear trends. Fact.

Nature does repeated cycles punctuated by dramatic changes.

Mathematics' involvement with natural science and physics is a mockery without the differential calculus. Read into that what you will.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I love it when educated people like those over at PIOMAS open their publicly viewable domain with a graph showing a linear trend superimposed upon a complex signal. Wow!

All those educated statistical mathematicians deriving a linear trend from the sum of complex functions. Such is the nature of the opinion they are directing upon the public.

Nature rarely does linear trends. Fact.

Nature does repeated cycles punctuated by dramatic changes.

Mathematics' involvement with natural science and physics is a mockery without the differential calculus. Read into that what you will.

 

It's simply showing a trend, not making a prediction. It helps people visualise the decline in volume. There really is to no need to get so uppity about it.

 

 

knocker. Seeing as you like PIOMAS so much, why didn't you link to this graph?

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst.png

Looks like this years temperatures are 'so high' in the Arctic that the ice is growing thicker, no?

 

This years temperatures have been close to average over the high Arctic, which is better than most recent years, hence an improvement in volume. Still, for someone so well versed in mathematics that they can disprove most of climate science and decry the use of linear trends, I think it inconsistent to make anything of a short term average thickness increase in a highly complex and noisy data set, no?

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm becoming ever more convinced that I have accidentally fallen into one the The Dr's wibbly wobbly timey whymy things and have ended up back in 2009???

 

Do folk have no memory of what happened to the ice in the two years following 07's crash? Seeing as 2012's drop was 18% larger than that would it not make sense that we would see a similar period of 'rebound' in the ice prior to it settling into a 'new' average prior to it's next major drop in extent/area/volume?