Arctic Ice Discussion 2014: the thaw...

[keithlucky]

Arctic N West and N East passage are closed, not open as some would tell us ,http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicen/nowcast/icen2014082118_2014082900_039_arcticicen.001.gif

Edited August 23, 2014 by keithlucky

[Devonian]

Arctic N West and N East passage are closed, not open as some would tell us

 I'm not aware anyone has told us they are open. Though I believe the Russian side is close. Edited August 23, 2014 by Devonian

[BornFromTheVoid]

Arctic N West and N East passage are closed, not open as some would tell us ,http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicen/nowcast/icen2014082118_2014082900_039_arcticicen.001.gif

 

That's for a week ahead?

 

Current, higher res images show the NE passage is open. But nobody has claimed the NW passage is.

 

[Interitus]

There is some patchy ice near the Vilkitsky Strait but the north east sea route is effectively open, 555 permits granted so far this year (though complete transits will be much lower than this).

[Interitus]

The cruise liner MS Hanseatic is currently traversing the NSR from east to west with regular webcam pictures and archive here - http://www.hl-cruises.com/ships/ms-hanseatic/position-webcam

No matter where this year's ice area or extent end up, having reached the New Siberian Islands so far it is remarkable how little ice there is, unthinkable just a few years ago.

Edited August 23, 2014 by Interitus

[keithlucky]

That's for a week ahead?

 

Current, higher res images show the NE passage is open. But nobody has claimed the NW passage is.

 

A few have tried to get through you wrong Born its closed  https://twitter.com/tan123/status/502753385024483328

[BornFromTheVoid]

A few have tried to get through you wrong Born its closed  https://twitter.com/tan123/status/502753385024483328

 

I never said the NW passage was open..., the northern or north east passage does appear to be open though.

[keithlucky]

Use the link http://t.co/So8cwnki6g

[Devonian]

A few have tried to get through you wrong Born its closed  https://twitter.com/tan123/status/502753385024483328

That's the NW passage not the NE...edit:oops, what Born said... Edited August 23, 2014 by Devonian

[knocker]

ASI 2014 update 8: neck and neck

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/08/asi-2014-update-8-neck-and-neck.html

[be cause]

Use the link http://t.co/So8cwnki6g

You seem to have mastered North and South .. it would be less trouble for everyone else if you worked out the difference between East and West !

[keithlucky]

You seem to have mastered North and South .. it would be less trouble for everyone else if you worked out the difference between East and West !

[keithlucky]

Masie shows an increase in  sea ice 6 regions decrease in 3

Region 148 days ago End Last 147 Last 28 Last 14 Last 7 Last 3 Last 1 Central Arctic 3,221,921 3,014,536 -207,386 -190,240 -131,202 -54,345 -14,605 -6,713 Chukchi Sea 966,006 404,852 -561,154 -236,954 -120,162 -70,049 -20,808 -1,270 East Siberian Sea 1,087,137 573,553 -513,584 -417,368 -218,037 -55,118 -14,962 -510 Baffin Bay Gulf of St. Lawrence 1,688,530 10,242 -1,678,288 -74,504 -36,120 -2,355 86 0 Hudson Bay 1,260,903 49,883 -1,211,020 -151,752 -78,133 -37,837 -9,259 0 Bering Sea 697,324 0 -697,324 -15 0 0 0 0 Baltic Sea 15,337 0 -15,337 0 0 0 0 0 Sea of Okhotsk 853,240 0 -853,240 0 0 0 0 0 Yellow Sea 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Canadian Archipelago 853,214 512,024 -341,190 -171,651 -92,818 -15,755 994 125 Laptev Sea 897,845 25,212 -872,632 -315,871 -126,287 -23,173 6,149 2,286 Kara Sea 933,859 169,991 -763,868 -234,657 -54,735 -17,139 12,432 2,647 Beaufort Sea 1,070,445 711,272 -359,173 -120,479 -92,697 -52,538 7,545 2,851 Barents Sea 645,917 137,210 -508,707 57,363 40,597 24,340 27,949 6,024 Greenland Sea 603,416 244,823 -358,593 -111,964 -51,483 -22,020 -3,976 9,954                   Northern Hemisphere (Total) 14,805,115 5,854,741 -8,950,374 -1,968,092 -961,078 -325,989 -8,456 15,393                   NH (Average Loss per Day)     -60,476 -70,289 -68,648 -46,570 -2,819 15,393

[be cause]

if you could also grasp the difference between present and future your posts might be of value beyond disinformation ... or is this an ice 'hockey stick' I see before me ?

Edited August 24, 2014 by be cause

[keithlucky]

if you could also grasp the difference between present and future your posts might be of value beyond disinformation ... or is this an ice 'hockey stick' I see before me ?

[oldsnowywizard]

Stop the sniping please or don't post . Simple

[BornFromTheVoid]

We've now dropped below 26 out of the 35 previous minima record (using the 5 day NSIDC average).

 

We've just 2002, 2005 and the 2007-2013 group left. 2002 we should pass with relative ease, the rest are uncertain for now.

 

[Interitus]

The cruise liner MS Hanseatic is currently traversing the NSR from east to west with regular webcam pictures and archive here - http://www.hl-cruises.com/ships/ms-hanseatic/position-webcam

No matter where this year's ice area or extent end up, having reached the New Siberian Islands so far it is remarkable how little ice there is, unthinkable just a few years ago.

 

Disappointingly the webcam has stopped updating the past couple of days because the ship has now ventured to north of 79°N making an excursion into the Laptev bite, looks like taking the opportunity to get as far north as possible before heading on to Severnaya Zemlya.

[knocker]

SEARCH 2014 Sea Ice Outlook: August report

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/08/search-2014-sea-ice-outlook-august-report.html

[knocker]

Exploring Arctic Ice Minima

 

Every year 2007-2013 had a lower Arctic sea ice extent than every year before 2007.  2014 seems likely to continue this record.  I'll also suggest below that maybe the Arctic has entered a 'new normal', with September ice extents bouncing around 4.7 million km^2.

 

http://moregrumbinescience.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/exploring-arctic-ice-minima.html

[Interitus]

Disappointingly the webcam has stopped updating the past couple of days because the ship has now ventured to north of 79°N making an excursion into the Laptev bite, looks like taking the opportunity to get as far north as possible before heading on to Severnaya Zemlya.

 

As suspected -

 

Expedition ship HANSEATIC sets new record for passenger ships

 

Hapag-Lloyd Cruises' Hanseatic reaches northernmost point

The HANSEATIC is currently sailing the Northeast Passage and has become the first non-Russian ship to do so

The expedition ship HANSEATIC of Hapag-Lloyd Cruises has set a new record for passenger ships in the Northeast Passage. Yesterday afternoon (August 26, 2014), the 122.8-metre-long ship reached the northernmost point at 85°, 40.7' north and 135°, 39.6' east. At this latitude, the HANSEATIC was just 480 kilometres from the North Pole.

 

Captain Thilo Natke comments: “Unusual ice conditions made this record possible. North of the New Siberian Islands in the Russian Arctic, there was a large ice-free zone stretching north through the Arctic Ocean, which we used for this spontaneous detour.†In temperatures of around zero degrees and a brisk north-easterly wind, the passengers took a Zodiac ride along the edge of the pack ice. This event was then celebrated in style with a party on deck.

http://www.hl-cruises.com/press-releases/27082014-en/

 

Getting quite busy up there, both research ship Polarstern and Canadian icebreaker Louis S. St-Laurent have visited the pole in the past week.

 

edit: ah re:visiting pole there was actually another Canadian icebreaker, Terry Fox, and the three ships were due to rendezvous at the pole but struggled with the ice conditions. Polarstern blog - http://www.awi.de/en/infrastructure/ships/polarstern/weekly_reports/all_expeditions/ps85_ps87_ark_xxviii/ps87/28_august_2014/

Edited August 29, 2014 by Interitus

[picog]

Do the ships and icebreakers have any effect on the ice near the pole? I understand that it must be thin or weak for them to get to the pole in the first place, but breaking up the ice must make it even weaker and prone to melt?

[Kiwi]

As the arctic becomes increasingly ice free is it likely to become immersed in territorial disputes as nations fight for the natural resources?

 

Putin has said today "Our interests are concentrated in the Arctic. And of course we should pay more attention to issues of development of the Arctic and the strengthening of our position there."  Putin is proposing significant military and economic expansion in the Arctic.

 

....and given his current track record I don't see Mr Putin adhering to international law or any Un conventions. Looks like the arctic is heating up in more ways than one!

 

Edited August 29, 2014 by Kiwi

[Interitus]

Back to the Northwest Passage and a number of craft are attempting it this year. Logically most take more southerly routes, but whilst they are floundering in scattered ice fields waiting for suitable conditions to advance or retreat, it actually looks from satellite imagery in the last couple of days that it may be possible to tiptoe through the 'original' northern route through the Parry Channel and McClure Strait.

[stewfox]

Do the ships and icebreakers have any effect on the ice near the pole? I understand that it must be thin or weak for them to get to the pole in the first place, but breaking up the ice must make it even weaker and prone to melt?

 

It would have a effect but given IJIS 15% area is currently about 11 times greater then the area of France not massive

 

Of course getting to the Pole would be a big attraction for tourist and perhaps it would become the rubbish dump we find around Mount Everest

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2572675/Mountain-rubbish-Climbers-told-pick-8KG-litter-want-scale-Mount-Everest-mess-doesnt-count.html

 

DMI taken a big fall

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

Ice cover looks like bottoming out , re freeze soon ?

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm