Arctic Ice Discussion 2014: the thaw...

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd agree G.S., trying to figure just how much more ice will go is an absolute nightmare! There is a lot over on the pacific side that will melt but what if we do see transport restart??? How much of the ice over Greenland and between Greenland and Svalbard, though healthy, might be lost?

Edited August 9, 2014 by Gray-Wolf

[knocker]

ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/08/asi-2014-update-7-late-momentum.html

[keithlucky]

Massive increase in Arctic ice over the last 2 yrs 

[oldsnowywizard]

GS there are dipoles and there are dipoles.. I dont see a strong dipole with strong winds pushing ice out as was the case in other years... there will continue to be melt but I agree with the thoughts in the AIS update, rather later in the season than earlier..  I see another week before temps start dropping more widely to 0 and below.. the key for me will be the ssts now and how long it takes for the warmth to disappear. I can see a later than normal min ice date due to this factor

 

http://www.bsh.de/aktdat/mk/ICE/daily/n20140808.ic.gif

 

compare the charts here and we are in a surprising position compared to the last few years... yes GW 80s charts blah blah but another step at least in the right direction.. considering the winter, where we are is even more surprising to me..

 

if you look at 2012 for example there was no 95% and above concentrated ice at all.. so in that respect not bad at all...  

[jonboy]

Can someone point me in the direction of historic sst charts for the artic?

Thanks

JB

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's a comparison of this years extent (up to August 15th) and the previous minima.

 

 

We've dropped below 18 out of the last 35. There seems to be a chance of remaining above the 2005 minima, which would be quite something.

 

Can someone point me in the direction of historic sst charts for the artic?

Thanks

JB

 

You could try the ncep reanalysis data here http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

 

[Geordiesnow]

Its going to stop quite sharply for it too beat the 2005 extent, some above average drops quite lately whilst Area has virtually stalled for quite a while now and its the highest its been for quite a number of years. 

 

Wonder what is causing the difference between area and extent again though? I can sort of understand Area being a bit higher than last year as the overall state of this years pack does look more solid with less melt ponds and higher concentration than last years pack(which was getting quite fragmented due to the persistence of the storms).

 

No idea where the min will end up, just when you thought the models are hinting at the end of the poor synotopics, it looks like the poor ice retention set ups are returning and once again after a short respite, the Pacific and Russian side of the Arctic is getting battered with unfavorable winds and warmth yet again. 

 

Just wondering at least in extent terms, are we paying the price for the poor set ups that have dominated this August and we could see the extent line drop to nearer 2007/11 at the end of the melt season? I have said I think the shape of the ice will end up similar to 2011 but hopefully with more ice. 

[oldsnowywizard]

The low you are talking about is in a different place on the ECMWF.. it isnt unusual at this time to see some low pressures... they should move the ice, destroy some, stack some replenish some with snow and help to use up some of the latent heat in the water.. so all in all good and bad points about  lows at this time of year... you are asking a lot for the ice to drop to 2007/11 levels now.. different synoptics for those years and more widespread warmth.. this year more  widespread -5 and some -10s starting to show up on the models.. I would imagine we will start to plateau out starting from 1st sep and then the rise will start around the 25th.. I would imagine just around the 5mil mark will be the min..

[mikeworst]

Seems that the Northwest passage is a bust this year. The National Geographic cruise has been unable to proceed and the route through Queen Maude is still solidly blocked with 9 to 10/10 thick ice. Time is limited and the onset of the re-freeze is only weeks away There is another ice class cruise liner somewhere in the vicinity of resolute, The Silver Explorer,  but she has not updated her log in 6 days and without icebreaker assistance will also not be able to proceed. All other attempts by smaller craft with the possible exception of a steel hulled motor vessel ( Mango) whose skipper seems determined to force his way through, can be written off this season. If this winter is similar to the last then next year will be impossible because of much increased second year ice. 

[cheeky_monkey]

Seems that the Northwest passage is a bust this year. The National Geographic cruise has been unable to proceed and the route through Queen Maude is still solidly blocked with 9 to 10/10 thick ice. Time is limited and the onset of the re-freeze is only weeks away There is another ice class cruise liner somewhere in the vicinity of resolute, The Silver Explorer,  but she has not updated her log in 6 days and without icebreaker assistance will also not be able to proceed. All other attempts by smaller craft with the possible exception of a steel hulled motor vessel ( Mango) whose skipper seems determined to force his way through, can be written off this season. If this winter is similar to the last then next year will be impossible because of much increased second year ice. 

Similar in what way??..the last winter was very mild in the arctic basin if memory serves me right and if you look at the Temperature Graph for the region that Keith loves to post it tells the same story..an average winter would be good news for increased ice volumes and thickness me thinks...which might mean having a mild winter across more temperate areas of the northern hemisphere.

[mikeworst]

I am referring to the Nunavut region of Canada that was cold last year and experienced a lot of ice thickening in the archipelago that the passage traverses. There is going to be much ice left over this year to thicken further and make next year impassable, even if the winter is not particularly severe.

[keithlucky]

Similar in what way??..the last winter was very mild in the arctic basin if memory serves me right and if you look at the Temperature Graph for the region that Keith loves to post it tells the same story..an average winter would be good news for increased ice volumes and thickness me thinks...which might mean having a mild winter across more temperate areas of the northern hemisphere.

With  the great lakes showing 14decrees lower water temps than average and Toronto international airport not recording a temperature of 30c so far this summer , the first time since records began in 1936 ,looks like this part of the northern hemishere looks set for another cold winter ahead. http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/summer-in-toronto-a-little-on-the-cool-side/34286?ref=wxnetapptopstory4V5&var1=0

[stewfox]

Similar in what way??..the last winter was very mild in the arctic basin if memory serves me right and if you look at the Temperature Graph for the region that Keith loves to post it tells the same story..an average winter would be good news for increased ice volumes and thickness me thinks...which might mean having a mild winter across more temperate areas of the northern hemisphere.

 

I wouldn't worry too much about that , there isn't much correlation here or in the USA although on a NH basis perhaps more so.

 

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

[Gray-Wolf]

Might not be the appropriate section but i cannot see a 'blow for blow' repeat of last winter across the U.S.? I do see the Jets just as mangled so some one is going to cop for a 'tweaked' winter, be it extra mild or extra cold, due to those extended ridges and troughs but will the be in the same positions as last year? Medium range forecasts call for the collapse of the high in the N.Pacific and so the 'ridge' over it will no longer be there? It may even be a trough? That would probs put central/eastern U.S, under a ridge and have some winter days challenging the cold summer max temps through winter? It might also mean that Greenland again sits under a ridge ( di pole territory!) ? It may also mean a high export winter with the whole Atlantic side of the basin at risk of export ( leaving late formed FY ice in its wake)?

 

All in all we don't know what will happen but can guess at the broader pattern. WAA into the arctic and 'Arctic Plunges' from the Arctic. Just like the past decade or so?

[cheeky_monkey]

With  the great lakes showing 14decrees lower water temps than average and Toronto international airport not recording a temperature of 30c so far this summer , the first time since records began in 1936 ,looks like this part of the northern hemishere looks set for another cold winter ahead. http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/summer-in-toronto-a-little-on-the-cool-side/34286?ref=wxnetapptopstory4V5&var1=0

why? just because the summer has been cool does not follow the winter will be another cold one? plus the area in question is a very very small portion of the NH

[4wd]

If the Lakes are cooling remarkably early now they will likely ice over early too - which makes a significant difference to temperatures over a wide area.

[Interitus]

If the Lakes are cooling remarkably early now they will likely ice over early too - which makes a significant difference to temperatures over a wide area.

 

It's not really that they're cooling remarkably early, they never really warmed up in the first place.

If the lakes froze early the biggest effect would be limited lake effect snow in that area.

[knocker]

why? just because the summer has been cool does not follow the winter will be another cold one? plus the area in question is a very very small portion of the NH

 

Quite. Another fallacious argument would be because California has had the warmest Jan-July by a country mile since records began it looks like being another warm winter.

[4wd]

It's not really that they're cooling remarkably early, they never really warmed up in the first place.

If the lakes froze early the biggest effect would be limited lake effect snow in that area.

Agree, but  if hypothetically the North Sea froze, the reduced snow shower activity would not be the most obvious change, as the water significantly warms bitter winds from the east which cross it.

[keithlucky]

why? just because the summer has been cool does not follow the winter will be another cold one? plus the area in question is a very very small portion of the NH

Loads of state record low summer broken right across USA this summer.(as shown previously).

[keithlucky]

Lowest amount of melt ever recorded since satellite records began http://notrickszone.com/2014/08/12/german-update-points-to-period-of-low-solar-activity-non-negligible-forcing-on-the-temperature/

[Interitus]

Lowest amount of melt ever recorded since satellite records began http://notrickszone.com/2014/08/12/german-update-points-to-period-of-low-solar-activity-non-negligible-forcing-on-the-temperature/

 

 

The link should be http://notrickszone.com/2014/08/21/piomass-data-analysis-unparalleled-3-sigma-low-arctic-sea-ice-melt-in-july-lowest-on-satellite-record

and the interpretation of the data is risible, what's not there cannot melt.

Edited August 21, 2014 by Interitus

[knocker]

The link should be http://notrickszone.com/2014/08/21/piomass-data-analysis-unparalleled-3-sigma-low-arctic-sea-ice-melt-in-july-lowest-on-satellite-record

and the interpretation of the data is risible, what's not there cannot melt.

 

Not surprising if Gosselin is involved. I've noticed a bit of thread creep recently.

[stewfox]

The link should be http://notrickszone.com/2014/08/21/piomass-data-analysis-unparalleled-3-sigma-low-arctic-sea-ice-melt-in-july-lowest-on-satellite-record

and the interpretation of the data is risible, what's not there cannot melt.

 

Lets hope most people see it for what it is

[knocker]

In this animation, the daily Arctic sea ice and seasonal land cover change progress through time, from March 21, 2014 through the 3rd of August, 2014. Over the water, Arctic sea ice changes from day to day showing a running 3-day minimum sea ice concentration in the region where the concentration is greater than 15%. The blueish white colour of the sea ice is derived from a 3-day running minimum of the AMSR2 89 GHz brightness temperature. Over the land, monthly data from the seasonal Blue Marble Next Generation fades slowly from month to month.Credit: NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio,AMSR2 data courtesy of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)