Arctic Ice Discussion 2014: the thaw...

[mikeworst]

And also probably 1979bc, 1980bc, 1981bc, 1982bc etc and so on. Nit picking and pointless, lets see what happens huh?.

[BornFromTheVoid]

And also probably 1979bc, 1980bc, 1981bc, 1982bc etc and so on. Nit picking and pointless, lets see what happens huh?.

 

I'm not getting you, Mike? Where's the nit picking?

[Methuselah]

And also probably 1979bc, 1980bc, 1981bc, 1982bc etc and so on. Nit picking and pointless, lets see what happens huh?.

And - the point?

[mikeworst]

Made my point even if you do not get it, catch you at the re-freeze. 

[Interitus]

Nit picking and pointless, lets see what happens huh?.

 

You said it, but enough about your post, conditions across the Arctic look set for possibly the major melt of the season in the next few days, in contrast to last year which made a reasonable start but faltered in August. The largest melt years of 2012, 2007 and 2011 all lost large amounts this month to take them below the pack, be interesting to see how far this year can follow suit. Doesn't seem too much of a coincidence that our own weather looks to be turning more unsettled as high pressure asserts itself further north, as was prevalent in recent ropey summers that were also high melt years.

[Gray-Wolf]

If the high lasts any amount of time it will kick start the trans polar drift and so the Fram train. with ice spending a portion of the season going the wrong way in Fram there is an amount now poised for the drop? Export will enhance any bottom melt losses so we'd better hope that the high proves transient?

 

It is reassuring that so many folk understand why last year was able to hold onto so much ice? It's good to know that the 'recovery/global cooldown' crew do not have the influence they would wish to have?

 

As it is the loss of export through the season has lead to a plumper rump end of the season but still a worrying level of loss for a slow start year and near all melt in-situ? It does still leave me wondering what an average weather/export year would have the pack looking like? Will 2012 still look like an outlier should we face another 'average' melt/export year? Looking at the past two summers performance I seriously doubt it?

 

I think MW's point was the ability to mix letters and numbers....... clever eh?

Edited August 5, 2014 by Gray-Wolf

[oldsnowywizard]

Why make it an us and them debate everytime? You make it sound like it's a gang and anyone not in your gang is wrong?

Temps will start to drop more around 0 now even with the warmer plus 5S at 850s ... bottom melt will keep going of course for a month or two.. expect to see more refreeze in the main pack Atlantic side especially... of note is that despite the colder air being over the USA rather than the arctic for most of last winter the ice still has not melted out as expected at the moment...time appears to be on our side... I'm not saying the dropping will stop of course..but compare images of 2014 with 2013 and 2012 and you can see the ice appears to be more concentrated

[Crepuscular Ray]

Why make it an us and them debate everytime? You make it sound like it's a gang and anyone not in your gang is wrong?

That question could be applied to both sides, couldn't it? I've been called delusional (and worse) for not agreeing that AGW is a load of bunkum in the past, and that sort of thing is why the separate threads were set up. Even though the elaborate system of cross-referral can be a bit cumbersome, it's better than the screaming arguments that used to happen in here. There is one thread (can't remember what it's called for the mo), to which people with opinions on both sides of the divide are welcome to post, provided they behave in a civilized manner and don't start throwing personal insults. Apart from that, it's far easier for everyone, especially the mods, if those who agree that AGW is happening stick to their threads and those who don't believe it stick to theirs.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Using the 5 day average with the NSIDC extent, here's how we currently compare with previous minima

 

 

We're currently below 9 years, and within 15k of another 3.

[stewfox]

If the high lasts any amount of time it will kick start the trans polar drift and so the Fram train. with ice spending a portion of the season going the wrong way in Fram there is an amount now poised for the drop? Export will enhance any bottom melt losses so we'd better hope that the high proves transient?

 

It is reassuring that so many folk understand why last year was able to hold onto so much ice? It's good to know that the 'recovery/global cooldown' crew do not have the influence they would wish to have?

 

As it is the loss of export through the season has lead to a plumper rump end of the season but still a worrying level of loss for a slow start year and near all melt in-situ? It does still leave me wondering what an average weather/export year would have the pack looking like? Will 2012 still look like an outlier should we face another 'average' melt/export year? Looking at the past two summers performance I seriously doubt it?

 

I think MW's point was the ability to mix letters and numbers....... clever eh?

 

People have been talking about major melts last two months and it hasn't happen, maybe it will 

 

I think looking at the last 30 years of arctic ice and saying were 7 off the bottom in itself doesn't say much apart the fact were a long way off an ice free arctic summer

[BornFromTheVoid]

People have been talking about major melts last two months and it hasn't happen, maybe it will 

 

I think looking at the last 30 years of arctic ice and saying were 7 off the bottom in itself doesn't say much apart the fact were a long way off an ice free arctic summer

 

We managed to be just the 3rd year on record to lose more than 1 million km2 in extent in a week, when the weather turned slightly bad between June and July. I think that counts as a major melt, although short lived, and shows the ice hasn't built up a whole lot of resilience yet. The weather is currently turning conducive to melt, so we'll see how it copes. I doubt we'll see another 1 million km2 weekly drop, as that's never happened in August before, but it should be interesting to watch all the same.

[mikeworst]

Seems that there is a possibility that the Northwest Passage may not open for business this season. There are a handful of boats waiting at Pond Inlet for ice conditions to become favourable but that is not expected for at least a few weeks yet

On the west to east route Cambridge bay is reachable and one boat, the steel hulled LE MANGUIER has set off for Gjoa Haven despite ice in the way but that's as far as they will go for now if they get through.

http://cornellsailing.com/2014/08/icebound/  http://blog.mailasail.com/catryn/55  ice conditions  as of yesterday  http://iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/Prod20/page3.xhtml

[knocker]

PIOMAS August 2014

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/08/piomas-august-2014.html

[Gray-Wolf]

After watching HYCOM through July (and now aug) I wonder if Sept will see this uptick taken away from us? There seems to have been a look of 'thinning' going on even if it has not yet resulted in 'melt out' of floes?

 

With the prospect of resumed export ,via fram, we also have another source of losses to add in that has been mostly absent from the rest of the season?

 

Post 07' ( 08 and 09) I was busy highlighting the area of ice lost in situ ( deniers were banging on about how it was the wind that did it) showing it to be comparable to the 07' melt. this time it would appear to be lack of export and melt synoptics that is all that spares us from another 2012?

 

I hear so many folk talking up the pack where I see a pack just as , if not more, vulnerable to melt as it was in 2012.......the only thing missing is the weather that would 'melt it'?

 

Until we have a pack ( again) that can withstand an 07/2012 type melt year and still leave a full basin ( like we saw in 87' and 97') then I will not be tempted to call recovery for fear of crushing disappointment the next time a 'perfect melt storm' synoptic that passes through (2017 is the earliest one could arrive if the spacings are 10 to 20 years apart).

Edited August 6, 2014 by Gray-Wolf

[4wd]

PIOMAS August 2014

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/08/piomas-august-2014.html

 

OMG did Neven really write: 

 

Equally fascinating will be to see how high volume can end up this year, perhaps even doubling the rebound from last year

It will still be spun into imminent and unavoidable catastrophic melt once the comments start.

[Interitus]

The clear conditions are allowing a good view of the East Siberian Sea over the last few days and it is interesting to see quite a number of large grounded ice islands which are causing polynyas in their lee as the general flow of ice goes past. The sea is shallow in this area at generally less than 20 - 50 metres but the ice could still be tens of feet thick.

 

This link shows a few good ones, select the following days to see how they remain stationary while the pack flows past (skip the 3rd August, bit cloudy) -

https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor~overlays,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-07-08&map=-487360,-357760,823360,558720

Edited August 6, 2014 by Interitus

[keithlucky]

Melt season nearly over Arctic ice loss very slow slowly approaching the standard deviation bounds

Edited August 6, 2014 by keithlucky

[stewfox]

Melt season nearly over Arctic ice loss very slow slowly approaching the standard deviation bounds

 

We can see what happens to a fragmented pack in August so wont be opening the champagne just yet. 5/6 weeks more.

 

But with volume up, multi year ice up and extent and area up I'm sure the Daily Mail are putting the article together now for September.

[Gray-Wolf]

You could probably bank on it not  being a 2012 low though?

 

It will be interesting to see what a 'slow year', with august bringing melt, leaves us with come min? We have seen large areas 'blink out' at this time of year as huge areas drop away into nothing?

 

What I want to see is how transport develops? There is a lot of 'good ice' sat in the trans polar drift right now so any reversal of the 'backwards winds' might set things back into motion?

[Geordiesnow]

 

It will be interesting to see what a 'slow year', with august bringing melt, leaves us with come min? We have seen large areas 'blink out' at this time of year as huge areas drop away into nothing?

 

 

 

Its going to be very interesting, must admit the set ups are perhaps not doing the major damage as expected(So far) but in that first blast that we had last week, I think what saved the Arctic from further melting was a shallow low pressure system developing which stopped the southerly winds and bought increased cloud cover but even so, the drops have not been too severe despite charts on paper looking very poor retention. 

 

I have no idea what the final min is going to be, I still would not rule out beating 2013 simply because barring some major pattern change then the Atlantic side of the Arctic should be a lot more extensive than last year which was so low it was looking like we could of seen an ice free pole from the Atlantic side and with the line of retreat on the Pacific side still being a little bit further South in most parts than this time last year. The big question mark is over the scale of the Laptev bite, I said early on in the season that this could come into play by the end of the melt season so it will be interesting how it will all develop. I expect a 2011 type shape to the ice by the end of the season with hopefully a bit more ice. 

 

It is good news regarding volume but I rather see what volume looks like by the time we get into Spring next year before passing judgement. The set ups on paper still look poor with only slight hints of a small pattern change e.g things turning cooler but so they should as we start enter into mid August. 

[keithlucky]

Arctic ice 1,000,000sq km higher than2012  Arctic ice Arctic ice volume doing also well up https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas

Edited August 7, 2014 by keithlucky

[oldsnowywizard]

temps dropping now... no dipole either.... 

[Gray-Wolf]

 More recently this area has been subject to the blob of heat that has been sitting overhead for nearly a week. While the surface is near the melting point (~0C), the temperature at 400m overhead is a whopping +18C. The atmosphere and clouds that sit up in that warm, moist air aloft emit tons of radiation down towards the surface that ends up melting a lot of ice. 

from ; http://ciresblogs.colorado.edu/icebreaker/

 

The blog entry was aug 6th......

 

Should the forecasts pan out then the 'di pole' will not be needed as the low entering the basin puts the 'jenga' stack of ice over Fram into motion?

 

It's odd folk should mention us being 1 million above 2012. What figure for loss did GAC12 give us?

[Geordiesnow]

On paper, there is no signs of the awful set ups we are seeing at the moment, there was a few hints but these have now gone now only to be replaced by a proper dipole set up, these have been some of the worse charts I have seen and probably the worse since 2007 yet the ice is holding out, can't help but feel the extent figures are covering the cracks so to speak. 

 

The ice according to the HYCOM model is quite thin just SE of the pole and with the poor weather conditions set to continue then it does put more pressure on this ice, maybe wind direction will preserve it, who knows with the way this melt season is going. 

 

It does make you wonder what sort of extent we may of seen if low pressure has been more of the dominating force, of course there could be some complications in the fact a deep low could actually do more damage than a high pressure cell but if conditions were reasonably slack then no doubt this year would of finished above 2013. I think the fact 2013 had so much ice in the central basin and the Pacific side of the Arctic is perhaps helping this year somewhat. 

 

The laptev bite is really becoming an unknown now, just how far will it eat into the ice!? 

 

Whatever happens in the next 2-3 weeks, I just can't help but feel its a missed opportunity here to take advantage of 2013's extensive Pacific ice extent and there is just no end to the poor weather conditions that on paper are favorable for rapid melt. 

[stewfox]

Update for July

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/