Summer 2014 thread

[Milhouse]

I wonder if this summer will see anything like the stunning high pressure charts of last July. Such a strong high lasting for so long is such a rarity though.

[Captain Shortwave]

I just hope the charts from the ECM and GEM are off the mark, if they are showing in a few days time I fear the summer washout reaper will be swinging his scythe again.

[MP-R]

June starting cool is one thing, but starting cool AND wet is another.  Can't remember a June that started cool and wet and improved later.

[ANYWEATHER]

I wonder if this summer will see anything like the stunning high pressure charts of last July. Such a strong high lasting for so long is such a rarity though.

As you said, a rarity,    

[Weather-history]

I actually do think the wetness of the winter is still having an effect now. Every time it rains large puddles and areas of standing water form, disproportionate to the amount of rain that's come down. Especially noticeable in fields and gardens- our garden still doesn't seem to have dried out (I notice this each time I cut the grass). 

Hydrologically but not meteorologically. They are talking meteorologically, which I am surprised to be honest, they have come out with a comment like that they are pretty level headed site.

[Milhouse]

As you said, a rarity,    

 

Yes, such an intense high over the UK doesnt happen often. But high pressure to the east can deliver even warmer temperatures e.g 1st August.

[summer blizzard]

I just hope the charts from the ECM and GEM are off the mark, if they are showing in a few days time I fear the summer washout reaper will be swinging his scythe again.

 

Does have a ring of 2011 about it doesn't it. Warm spring quickly degenerates in time for summer.

[virtualsphere]

In terms of the months, the first half of June looks to be greatly influenced by low-pressure and westerly winds. However, if it means that come July and August it will settle down quite a bit, then I'm happy to sacrifice June to more summery weather when all of the holidays arrive.

 

Yes, it would be nice to have a settled second-half of summer this year.  After several decent sunny Junes here in recent years, we were overdue a good July and finally got one last year.  Of all the summer months, a settled August is most overdue - the last good one here was 2006. I wouldn't mind a wet June if it was followed by a settled July and August.  Having said that, recent Augusts haven't been anywhere near as bad as July was between 2007 and 2012.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

If I remember, August 2006 was absolutely dreadful. Do you mean August 2003?

 

Aug '03 was dreadful for members like me, laserguy and simshady!

[virtualsphere]

If I remember, August 2006 was absolutely dreadful. Do you mean August 2003?

 

Actually I think I'm remembering 2005 looking at the Met Office sunshine stats for Wales.

 

Source: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly 

 

Edit: the tail end of that graph serves to prove my point we're due a good one!

Edited May 24, 2014 by virtualsphere

[J10]

Actually I think I'm remembering 2005 looking at the Met Office sunshine stats for Wales.

 

Source: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly 

 

Edit: the tail end of that graph serves to prove my point we're due a good one!

 

 

That link doesn't work.

 

Quite a few recent Augusts have been nondescript, not good but not awful either. June has been the best summer month in most recent years for Wales at least. .

[Summer Sun]

I should be sure to check that out! Accuweather also suggested that summer may start off very Atlantic-influenced, before turning to generally a more settled pattern later on.

 

Forecast now available

 

http://youtu.be/h4UD0bqV7rI?t=1s

 

Gavin Partridge - Thinking it could be a warm one this year, though probably not a "classic"

[Captain Shortwave]

After a scare yesterday with some truly dreadful output, perhaps some signs from the models of resuming the very dominating trend in the longwave pattern.

I think the summer will be a game of two halves;

The first half will likely be dominated by the pattern we are in now, high pressure north east and west/south west of the UK with low pressure being a regular feature to the south of the UK. Winds will be commonly from an easterly direction. Western areas (especially western Scotland) could fare very well. North eastern areas could experience rather cloudy conditions at times. Central/southern areas could be interesting with plenty of opportunities for thundery downpours and perhaps some very warm weather at times.

The second half will see a change as the Atlantic hurricane season starts to show its hand, this will likely bring a much more westerly element to the weather and the Azores high will closer to our shores. We will likely see a typical northwest/south east split with warmer and drier than average conditions in the south east and cooler and wetter conditions in Scotland and Ireland, though there could be more widespread settled conditions at times.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looking over the UK sunshine stats provided by the Met Office,

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/Sunshine/ranked/UK.txt

the August sunshine stats are pretty bizarre.  We have had numerous Mays, Junes and Julys that passed the 200 hour mark, but in the case of August, we have had three phenomenally sunny Augusts (1947, 1976 and 1995, each with over 240 hours) and none of the others reached 200 hours.  Hence August 2003, which was let down by relatively cool cloudy conditions in the last two-thirds of the month following the hot sunny first third, nonetheless ranked as the 4th sunniest August in the series.

 

Looking over that series we are somewhat overdue an August with a national-average sunshine total between 200 and 240 hours.  (Yes, I know that we can't completely rely on the stats for recent years because of the move to Kipp-Zonen sensors from Campbell-Stokes recorders, but I think when we're talking a differential of over 40 hours, it's pretty conclusive.)

Edited May 25, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[summer blizzard]

Is Joe releasing a forecast for Netweather.

[MP-R]

It does seem that August has been the most docile of summer months since the turn of the century with July seeing the most extremes and June the most reliably sunny month. The only absolutely dire August in my neck of the woods was 2008. In all the other unsettled Augusts there has at least been something of merit:

 

2000: Dry and at some times hot despite often being cloudy

2001: Plenty of thundery showers and a a few hot spells, 1 early on, 1 midmonth and 1 over the bank holiday

2002: Often dry and warm after a wet and thundery first week

2003: Beautiful with plentiful sunshine until the final week

2004: Hot spell for the first 10 days then at least warm despite horrendously wet thereafter

2005: Largely warm and sunny with a brief autumnal spell 22nd-26th

2006: No rain in the first half of the month and warm/very warm to boot

2007: Sunny and warm by day in the first third despite cool nights

2008: SELF EXPLANATORY

2009: Mixed but often warm and sunny between the 7th and 20th (considerably better than July)

2010: The saving grace was that there wasn't a lot of rain until the final third of the month where a hell of a lot fell (close to 2008)

2011: Hot start and fairly settled although not overly sunny until the wet period during the final week

2012: Loved this month for the thunderstorms and two very warm spells 7th-12th and 18th-19th

2013: At least in the SW, a very decent summer month, only overshadowed by July

 

So it seems that by the final third of August it tends to get noticeably more unsettled at least in the SW but the first half of the month can often produce very respectable weather. July is the wettest summer month on average going by my records, pushed up by months like 2007, 2008 and 2009.

[hillbilly]

Looking over the UK sunshine stats provided by the Met Office,

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/Sunshine/ranked/UK.txt

the August sunshine stats are pretty bizarre.  We have had numerous Mays, Junes and Julys that passed the 200 hour mark, but in the case of August, we have had three phenomenally sunny Augusts (1947, 1976 and 1995, each with over 240 hours) and none of the others reached 200 hours.  Hence August 2003, which was let down by relatively cool cloudy conditions in the last two-thirds of the month following the hot sunny first third, nonetheless ranked as the 4th sunniest August in the series.

 

Looking over that series we are somewhat overdue an August with a national-average sunshine total between 200 and 240 hours.  (Yes, I know that we can't completely rely on the stats for recent years because of the move to Kipp-Zonen sensors from Campbell-Stokes recorders, but I think when we're talking a differential of over 40 hours, it's pretty conclusive.)

The top 3 sunniest augusts here are 1947...254hrs ,1995...239 hrs ,1975....220 hrs with 1976 at 208 hrs

1959,1949,1935 and 1911 all made above 200 hours with both 1933 and 1926 both making 198 hrs

[TonyH]

Looking over the UK sunshine stats provided by the Met Office,

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/Sunshine/ranked/UK.txt

the August sunshine stats are pretty bizarre.  We have had numerous Mays, Junes and Julys that passed the 200 hour mark, but in the case of August, we have had three phenomenally sunny Augusts (1947, 1976 and 1995, each with over 240 hours) and none of the others reached 200 hours.  Hence August 2003, which was let down by relatively cool cloudy conditions in the last two-thirds of the month following the hot sunny first third, nonetheless ranked as the 4th sunniest August in the series.

 

Looking over that series we are somewhat overdue an August with a national-average sunshine total between 200 and 240 hours.  (Yes, I know that we can't completely rely on the stats for recent years because of the move to Kipp-Zonen sensors from Campbell-Stokes recorders, but I think when we're talking a differential of over 40 hours, it's pretty conclusive.)

Surely though August will tend to come off less sunny as the day length is decreasing through the month compared with the other 3 months.

[hillbilly]

Surely though August will tend to come off less sunny as the day length is decreasing through the month compared with the other 3 months.

Not sure about that as October 1911 made 171 hours here and april 2011 made 206 hrs!!!!!

[virtualsphere]

That link doesn't work.

 

Quite a few recent Augusts have been nondescript, not good but not awful either. June has been the best summer month in most recent years for Wales at least. .

 

Whoops - should be here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly

 

2008 and 2012 were the worst Augusts for me, nondescript is a good way of describing the rest!  Maybe I'm expecting too much because of the number of decent Augusts between 1989 and 2005.

Edited May 25, 2014 by virtualsphere

[I remember Atlantic 252]

May is the wettest and most unsettled month surely? Aug tends to be settled, cannot remember many if any washouts, late Aug temps do drop off and can feel like autumn, but still better than May

[matty007]

May is the wettest and most unsettled month surely? Aug tends to be settled, cannot remember many if any washouts, late Aug temps do drop off and can feel like autumn, but still better than May

 

Actually, May is the driest month of the year on average across the UK. 

[J10]

Whoops - should be here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly

 

2008 and 2012 were the worst Augusts for me, nondescript is a good way of describing the rest!  Maybe I'm expecting too much because of the number of decent Augusts between 1989 and 2005.

 

I was being polite. (in terms of nondescript).

 

Thanks for updating the link, very informative.

 

Many recent summers have been on the edge of bring good/bad ones, with a good June and bad July and the dodgy Augusts have tipped some of them into the latter category.

 

Even last year August wasn't as good as June and July.

Edited May 25, 2014 by J10

[MP-R]

Actually, May is the driest month of the year on average across the UK. 

 

Really?! Goes to show how dry some other areas must be. May is my fifth wettest month of the year on average with 2002, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2012 and 2013 all being the wet category. It's also joint second most thundery month with August taking first place.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Surely though August will tend to come off less sunny as the day length is decreasing through the month compared with the other 3 months.

Absolutely- but I think it is still remarkable that no August in the national series had a sunshine total between 200 and 240 hours in such a long record.  Statistically one would expect August sunshine data to be similarly distributed to the July data but with lower totals.

Of course when we narrow it down to a local and regional level this "quirk" of the August stats largely disappears in some cases.