Summer 2014 thread

[Summer Sun]

Decent start to summer OK we've not had really high temps but you don't need them to enjoy the sunshine thats strong enough anyway warm days and fresher nights bar the odd warm one nights is what most want anyway as its better for sleeping this is the best June we've had in a long time for the persistence of the settled weather.

 

Yes a breakdown will come this week but it doesn't look too wet Friday in the south may see some more persistent rain its early yet but worth keeping an eye on

[damianslaw]

As others have said, this June is certainly turning into the best in terms of dry sunny warm weather since probably 2006. We had a run of good ones between 2003-2006 but since most have been marred by very wet weather or cloudy cool weather such as last year. We have seen higher temperatures such as in late 2009, but overall its been decent and there is still a week to go.

 

June on average is the sunniest month of the year for all, and in the west at least usually drier than July and appreciably drier than August. It is on average though the coolest summer month, and lengthy very hot spells are rare especially in the NW, there have been exceptions such as 1976, late June 1995 for instance. July and August are much more likely to deliver 'heatwave' conditions, but hot weather can often also be associated with thundery humid air.

 

Our highest max for the year so is 24 degrees, not bad, but many years have recorded a higher max by now.. but last year we had wait until July, however, 2012 we got up to 26 degrees in May..

[Summer of 95]

Just looking at the stats on Roger Brugge's site: it really is amazing how many sites so far have an average max above 20C for June, yet have not reached 25C. Much of the west Midlands (Shawbury, Coleshill, Church Lawford) and large parts of the south and east, as well as Wales. Note how far inland some of these sites are, yet they still can't breach the 23-24C barrier near the solstice. This lack of variation in maxima has been a constant theme of every month this year.

[summer blizzard]

Decent start to summer OK we've not had really high temps but you don't need them to enjoy the sunshine thats strong enough anyway warm days and fresher nights bar the odd warm one nights is what most want anyway as its better for sleeping this is the best June we've had in a long time for the persistence of the settled weather.

 

Yes a breakdown will come this week but it doesn't look too wet Friday in the south may see some more persistent rain its early yet but worth keeping an eye on

 

The March-June period in general seems to have seen a pattern of good but not exceptional maxima (think we got 27C this month somewhere) and pleasant amounts of sunshine. 

 

Low solar flux reading at 93 currently, not sure whether that'll cause damage to the rest of summer, but its worrying to say the least.

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/solar.data

 

Monthly suggest solar max was Feb so far. Probably another 2 years until activity really collapses.

[cheeky_monkey]

Just looking at the stats on Roger Brugge's site: it really is amazing how many sites so far have an average max above 20C for June, yet have not reached 25C. Much of the west Midlands (Shawbury, Coleshill, Church Lawford) and large parts of the south and east, as well as Wales. Note how far inland some of these sites are, yet they still can't breach the 23-24C barrier near the solstice. This lack of variation in maxima has been a constant theme of every month this year.

has reached 26c on three occasions this June where I am including yesterday...its also warm and sunny again this morning..so im expecting another 25c at some point today...also it hasn't rained in June yet..if I manage to get to Friday that will be 4 weeks of dry weather..so far its been a near perfect summer month..no rain not too hot and low humidity...could have been sunnier though.

[Weather-history]

Just looking at the stats on Roger Brugge's site: it really is amazing how many sites so far have an average max above 20C for June, yet have not reached 25C. Much of the west Midlands (Shawbury, Coleshill, Church Lawford) and large parts of the south and east, as well as Wales. Note how far inland some of these sites are, yet they still can't breach the 23-24C barrier near the solstice. This lack of variation in maxima has been a constant theme of every month this year.

Warmest day this year so far for Manchester was the 19th May.

[Costa Del Fal]

I hope the CFS trends aren't not to anything recently because if so we wouldnt be seeing much High Pressure and Dry weather. Thankfully it's not the best model but just hoping last year was not a blip.

[cheeky_monkey]

Temp has hit 25c again today as I thought it would where I am

[cheeky_monkey]

I have not seen anyone writing off summer..plenty of people moaning because its too hot, too cold, too wet, too dry etc etc but that's normal

[shedhead]

These Summer write-off comments that I've been reading on some of the other forums are really beginning to get on my nerves now! It looks like it's going to turn more unsettled later this week - whoopdidoo. That doesn't mean that the whole of Summer 2014 is now over. It's June 24 for Christ's sake! If it was August 24 I could maybe understand it a little bit more, but not in bloody June! Furthermore meteorological Summer isn't the only part of the year that is restricted to warm weather. All three Spring months this year brought some very Summer-like weather, and look where 2011 went. Spring and Autumn brought the Summer! Many places recorded their warmest day on either September 30 or October 1. So could people please stop being so foolish with the write-offs!? We still have a good three and a bit months for meaningful sun and warmth!

People have every right to write off Summer whenever they wish. Many wrote last Winter off pre Xmas and they were proven to be absolutely correct. If those kind of comments annoy you then stop reading them, don't tell others what and when to post, that isn't your job.

[NorthernRab]

Not really anything to do with latitude but more the position of the high. Stuck out to the west it is just allowing endless cloud to spew over the top of it and down the eastern side of the UK.

 

We just never seem to get favourable summer synoptics any more. This part of the country seems to come out with below average sunshine all the time except last summer and even then the surplus was smaller than in most other parts. 

 

I'd agree with this, some 100 miles west in Inverness it's been a really great summer so far. 

[Yarmy]

I hope the CFS trends aren't not to anything recently because if so we wouldnt be seeing much High Pressure and Dry weather. Thankfully it's not the best model but just hoping last year was not a blip.

 

 

Looking good for February though :

 

 

 

Seriously though, CFS (as I'm sure you know) is a waste of time and not worth worrying about.  

Edited June 25, 2014 by Yarmy

[Nick L]

And handbags down please folks.

[Gael_Force]

I'm going for a distinctly hot spell at some point, I.e., 30-33C quite widely with the obligatory thundery breakdown..Beginning to mid July or start of August perhaps? Why you rightly may ask? Wouldn't take much to draw up some of the hot air currently sitting over the mainland, namely SE Europe. Writing off any Summer at this point is frankly a tad OTT, let alone when some parts of Europe are currently baking....slight pattern shifts, as we have seen before can make quite drastic changes further down the line.

Obviously in between some typically average weather shall prevail, starting from yes today, remainder of this week and throughout the forthcoming weekend. And of course beyond. Til the notable hot spell lol.

 

I was thinking Europe looked unusually cool for heading towards July,

 

...and no sign of any heatwaves in the next two weeks according to the GFS.

 

 

The upstream analogues from NOAA are indicating years with warm Julys - let's hope that manages to come off. People can quote examples of lovely spring/autumn months but most folk want their fine days when the kids are on holiday, nights are light and all the summer activities are at their height.

[Richard2901]

I'm writing summer off as poor now and with good reason. Good summers don't contain months as dismal as this June. The last fortnight has been grim and depressing with just 35 hours sun. The month to date has managed only 4 hours more sunshine than June 2012 and it's nearly over. We didn't have to put up with this in the worst summers prior to 2007, when we still got varied and changeable weather conditions. Even summers like 1998 seem like a paradise compared to the post-2006 dross.

 

There's no sign of a much needed improvement either. The model output is lamentable. I can't even see one chart, in the reliable timeframe, that would provide any decent weather. No sign of any lengthy sunny spells, no sign of the long-overdue first 21C. Just north to north east winds bringing grey skies, drizzle and sub-15C maxes.

 

By the time this comes to an end, if indeed it does, we'd require the rest of summer to be better than 1976 to cancel out the lack of sunshine to date. Our summer climate truly has changed beyond recognition since 2007. Without wind from the south west quarter we may as well be situated between Shetland and the Faeroes because that is now the summer weather we have to endure

[Milhouse]

The BBC 5 dayer makes for grim viewing for those from Aberdeen. Max temp 13c. urrrghh horrible! 

 

The south and southwest have had it very good this month though.

[weatherguru14]

why does the met office say things will pick up the second week of July and the bbc monthly outlook as something similar.. when there is no current  signs of it? confusing.

[weatherguru14]

so basically  giving people hope who enjoy the summer weather.. when there is no concrete proof of it yet..  I will quote what the bbc said on Monday

 

Monday 7 July—Sunday 27 July More promising signs on the horizon

The smorgasbord of sport (or, given the Tour de France, should that be melange of meets?) continues as we head further into July. By mid-July we'll have the first Test with India already decided and the second getting underway. At the same time, the golfing fraternity will be turning their eyes towards Hoylake for the Open Golf Championship, not to mention those attending the summer festivals and the Commonwealth Games.

It's a long time away and a lot can change but as it looks at the moment, I think we can suggest reasons to be cheerful for all. Early indications lean towards a settling down of the weather with hints at some more prolonged, drier spells and a rise in temperature.

 

 

I know its a way off  in the future etc.. But it does give people the impression july wont be that bad..  You can gurantee come next Monday things will have changed.

I would have preferred it. if they said no inclinations of what  the weather will be like.It just gives  the wrong impression.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I'm writing summer off as poor now and with good reason. Good summers don't contain months as dismal as this June. The last fortnight has been grim and depressing with just 35 hours sun. The month to date has managed only 4 hours more sunshine than June 2012 and it's nearly over. We didn't have to put up with this in the worst summers prior to 2007, when we still got varied and changeable weather conditions. Even summers like 1998 seem like a paradise compared to the post-2006 dross.There's no sign of a much needed improvement either. The model output is lamentable. I can't even see one chart, in the reliable timeframe, that would provide any decent weather. No sign of any lengthy sunny spells, no sign of the long-overdue first 21C. Just north to north east winds bringing grey skies, drizzle and sub-15C maxes.By the time this comes to an end, if indeed it does, we'd require the rest of summer to be better than 1976 to cancel out the lack of sunshine to date. Our summer climate truly has changed beyond recognition since 2007. Without wind from the south west quarter we may as well be situated between Shetland and the Faeroes because that is now the summer weather we have to endure

But in all fairness that's your local experience, for people in many other parts of the country including northwest England and Ireland who traditionally have wetter summers they've had a fantastic month with temps into the mid 20's widely , and for me down in the southern midlands it's been an absolute corker of a month , a few thunderstorms , with many many sunny warm days , it's been the best June Iv had for years. If we have 2 wks of unsettled weather now I really still can't moan. Come middle of July and I expect we will all be seeing some nice weather again. Of course even Aberdeen can get the warmest spots in the uk sometimes with the shelter from the mountains , but then again you can get endless days of coastal mist and drizzle if the feed comes off the North Sea with temps in the low teens , if you get that sick of it I suggest you book a holiday or move further south maybe away from the coast Edited June 25, 2014 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[shedhead]

But in all fairness that's your local experience, for people in many other parts of the country including northwest England and Ireland who traditionally have wetter summers they've had a fantastic month with temps into the mid 20's widely , and for me down in the southern midlands it's been an absolute corker of a month , a few thunderstorms , with many many sunny warm days , it's been the best June Iv had for years. If we have 2 wks of unsettled weather now I really still can't moan. Come middle of July and I expect we will all be seeing some nice weather again. Of course even Aberdeen can get the warmest spots in the uk sometimes with the shelter from the mountains , but then again you can get endless days of coastal mist and drizzle if the feed comes off the North Sea with temps in the low teens , if you get that sick of it I suggest you book a holiday or move further south maybe away from the coast

Indeed, it's been a very decent June here too, but whether bad or good to date it's the future we are interested in. The pattern going forward does not look encouraging imo, with a least the first week of July seeing a dominant Scandi trough affecting the UK, which could very easily extend its influence through week two as well. For those who have endured a poor June, this could mean a first half write off, so it's hard to blame those thinking and saying similar about the whole Summer...even if it does annoy some of the rather more sensitive souls on here. Edited June 26, 2014 by shedhead

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well,its been a superb June for the majority with no or little rain to speak of.

I think on reflection,we have been very lucky esp when one considers the amount of northern blocking on offer during June.

Moving forward it does look quite changeable with the jet forcing those Atlantic systems on a more UK bound trajectory.

A spell of Atlantic weather is now pretty unavoidable but thats not to be unexpected,nearly all UK summers have unsettled spells.

[Polar Continental]

Sorry wrong thread.

Edited June 26, 2014 by Polar Continental

[Milhouse]

Indeed, it's been a very decent June here too, but whether bad or good to date it's the future we are interested in. The pattern going forward does not look encouraging imo, with a least the first week of July seeing a dominant Scandi trough affecting the UK, which could very easily extend its influence through week two as well. For those who have endured a poor June, this could mean a first half write off, so it's hard to blame those thinking and saying similar about the whole Summer...even if it does annoy some of the rather more sensitive souls on here.

 

To be fair its only those on the NE coast of Scotland why could possibly say they have had a poor June. Here further down the east coast temperatures have been down on elsewhere but it aint been bad. Plenty of dry weather since the first week.

[Costa Del Fal]

Atrocious GFS 06z. Most wouldnt be seeing 20c for a long time. Whilst a normal summer will always contain unsettled spells, I'm sure a normal one doesnt constitute stalling LP and consistently cool uppers dragged down just over the UK. Very familiar 2007-12 pattern. 

 

Why does it seems every teleconnection is almost always not in our favour?

[pip22]

Two things I hate Summertime!! Humidity and Cloudiness like today. Its just so uncomfortable.   When is the weather gonna cool off??