Summer 2014 thread

[Don]

You're right, all of those summers were bad but I would say that 2007, 2010 and 2012 were the worst of the worst. 2008, 2009 and 2011 were just bad.

 

Apart from August which was admittedly poor, Summer 2010 wasn't bad.  June in particular was a good month after a cool start and I remember July being pretty good too?

[AderynCoch]

Apart from August which was admittedly poor, Summer 2010 wasn't bad.  June in particular was a good month after a cool start and I remember July being pretty good too?

July 2010 was a very contrasting month.

 

It was very warm and dry in your part of the country but here it was vile (exceptionally dull and wet).

[Summer of 95]

July 2010 was a very contrasting month. It was very warm and dry in your part of the country but here it was vile (exceptionally dull and wet).

July 2010 was even duller than August 2008 here. It wasn't especially wet, but save for that weekend 10-11th the cloud was relentless. There wasn't even the early morning/late evening sun we get in a lot of cloudy summer months.July 2009 was also grim- wetter than 2007, 1988 or 2012 here, and it lacked the thunder it had further east. It was up there with the very worst summer months.

[AderynCoch]

To have a July duller than August 2008 is pretty damning when you consider that it's a month closer to the summer solstice in June, and August 2008 was truly terrible for sunshine (beaten only by the nightmare August of 1912).

 

Even in Shropshire July 2010 wasn't that wet but it was rotten just to the north. Wetter than 2009 and 2012 according to the Met Office maps and about the same as 2007. We really have had some rotten Julys sandwiched between the excellent ones of 2006 and 2013.

[Summer of 95]

To have a July duller than August 2008 is pretty damning when you consider that it's a month closer to the summer solstice in June, and August 2008 was truly terrible for sunshine (beaten only by the nightmare August of 1912).

 

Even in Shropshire July 2010 wasn't that wet but it was rotten just to the north. Wetter than 2009 and 2012 according to the Met Office maps and about the same as 2007. We really have had some rotten Julys sandwiched between the excellent ones of 2006 and 2013.

 

Especially considering August 2008 was supposed to be a once in 100 year dull summer month; we had a July duller two years later and a June two years after that! There hadn't been a summer month under 100 hours since 1912 here as far as I am aware until August 2008; we then had 3 in 5 summers and another three months (Aug 2010, Aug 2011 and July 2012) that only just made it over 100 in the last week.

 

July 2010 only had about 60mm rain here (just above average): but there must have been 20 days with drizzle or light rain. It really was a stinker of a month.

[sundog]

Of the run of poor summers 2007-2012 summer 2010 was definatly the best of them here,decent first half,fairly dry,sunny and warm but a poor second half.

[Summer of 95]

The one statistic that sums up all the 2007-12 summers:

 

Between 2006 and 2013 the hottest day here was 1st October 2011.

[Summer of 95]

Manchester had it's first 30C day on 1 August 2013 since July 2006.

We only got to 29.5 that day and are still waiting... Between 1990 and 2006 on average every other year hit 30C.

[damianslaw]

Last summer was by far our best summer for warm, dry sunny weather since 2006, beating the previous 6 summers by some margin and came as a surprise as I wasn't expecting lengthy dry warm sunny spells. July 2013 was a wonderful month, indeed in many recent summers, July has been the worst of the three summer months, with only 2006 being an exception. July 2012 was one of the wettest summer months on record in these parts.

 

I'd be happy if summer 2014 was similar to summer 2013. Interesting to see how our hottest summers/months have occurred in summer pairings as follows:

 

1975/1976 - 2 hot summers in a row, with record warmth sandwiched in a long run of very poor summers for warmth, also occurred during a very dry 12 month spell. June 1976 hottest on record.

 

1983/1984 - 2nd warmest July on record in 1983, followed by a notably sunny warm dry summer in 1984 with drought conditions here.

 

1989/1990 - two cracking summers, 1989 was wonderful lots of sunny dry warm weather throughout,  August 90 produced record heat.

 

 1995/1996 - 1995 a wonderful summer, warmest driest sunniest August on record, summer 96 despite being close to average temp wise, was indeed a good one with lots of dry sunny warm weather. I've chosen 1996 as a pairing rather than 1994 which despite being much warmer, indeed we were on the brink of a very hot summer, was generally less settled with a very wet July, but you could pair it with 1994.

 

2005/2006 - summer 2005 despite some very wet thundery spells at times, was mostly fine warm and sunny, summer 2006 produced record heat in July and our warmest July on record overall.

 

 2013/2014 - another pairing I wonder?

 

A statistical quirk... mmm not so sure.. too much of a coincidence.

Edited April 13, 2014 by damianslaw

[cheese]

Manchester had it's first 30C day on 1 August 2013 since July 2006.

Years that reached 30C here:

 

2013

--

2011

--

--

--

--

2006

2005

--

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

 

So, over the past 15 years, 9 reached 30C, 6 did not. The 4-year gap between 2007 and 2010 was  the longest consecutive run of years not to reach 30C I can find.

Edited April 13, 2014 by cheese

[damianslaw]

I think 2011 in my area got very close on June 27 (sadly the day that my Grandma passed away) at 29.5C, but still it wasn't reached. 2012 got nowhere near 30C, I think the highest was 26C on July 26.

 

 

2012 was woeful for warm conditions. I think our highest max was 24 degrees. We might have scraped 25 degrees at the end of May.

 

2011 was unusual our highest maxima occurred on the 30 September, and the warmest week occurred at the end of May.

 

We just about managed 30 degrees in July 2013, we had a run of days above 27 degrees, delivering our longest spell of high maxima since July 2006. Achieving 30 degrees is quite difficult here, on average our highest maxima of the year is about 28 degrees, and we can only expect a handful of days above 26 degrees. A max of 24 degrees is a very respectable temperature, but it is unusual if we don't at least see a few days or a shortlived spell of maxima in the 25-28 degree range.

[Summer of 95]

2002? We had nothing higher than 27C that year, I didn't think anywhere outside the usual London places made 30.

That day in June 2011 made 28, 0.3C shy of October 1st, but it was an isolated warm day in a cool summer.

2001 which wasn't a particularly good summer had 3 days make it, showing it doesn't take exceptional weather to do it.

[Captain Shortwave]

The strange thing about that spell between 2007 and last year was how often those poor summers were couple by very warm spells in May and September. The one thing I remember from my time at uni was the exam period at the end of May was always accompanied by a heatwave. Oddly last May was well below average (the first year since leaving uni).

Not sure about this summer, but I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't close to average. A couple of hot spells in a mainly showery westerly summer I think.

[Supercell 89]

Last summer was wonderful, particularly the July. Having moved from South Devon to Berkshire, where its rare to reach above 25c let alone reach 30c having 7 days of temperatures of 29c and above was fantastic! and something which i've never experienced before in the UK.

 

In regards to this summer, I've been doing a lot of background reading into signals such as the QBO, PDO and keeping an eye on the ENSO conditions and I have a strong hunch that this summer will be warmer and drier than average if and only if this El Nino is able to get in gear in time. So I decided to give it a go and put together an amateur outlook to summer 2014.

 

Looking more in depth other signals and patterns, the QBO it looks to be turning into its negative phase most likely around June possibly July which isn't normally favourable for warm dry conditions during summer. The last time we saw a switch from negative to positive during summer was 2011 and 2009 before that, in which both featured negative PDO phases. The negative PDO also enhances a cool wet pattern for the UK with a southerly tracking jet.  Now 2013 saw a -PDO pattern although it was weaker than in previous summers although it did strengthen towards August but we also saw a pretty strong +QBO event which peaked during July and August which coupled with low SST's around the UK I think helped high pressure to ridge across the UK for those three weeks. 

 

 

Unlike 2009 and 2011 the PDO has been positive the last few months which by no means guarantees a nice summer, however if this El Nino event is able to take off then it could encourage a more positive perhaps a strongly positive PDO during the summer this year, which will hopefully mean the jet stream will move northwards as it should do during the summer instead of tracking southwards.

 

When looking at other years to match this type of pattern I managed to the following:-

 

1967

1976

1981

1983

1986

1988

1991

2009

 

A very interesting mix especially '76 and '83. 

 

From that list we have;

 

2 Very Warm Summers (1976, 1983)

1 Warm Summer (1991)

1 Average Summer (1967)

4 Cool Summers (1981,1986,1988 & 2009)

 

The composite I got from all of those years was interestingly quite good, although the high pressure anomaly is quite weak. 

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.pl?var=Geopotential+Height&level=1000mb&mon1=5&mon2=7&iy=1967&iy=1976&iy=1981&iy=1983&iy=1986&iy=1988&iy=1991&iy=2009&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&ipos%5B1%5D=&ipos%5B2%5D=&ineg%5B1%5D=&ineg%5B2%5D=&timefile0=&tstype=0&timefile1=&value=&typeval=1&compval=1&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=100&labelcon=1&switch=0&cint=&lowr=&highr=&proj=ALL&xlat1=0&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&custproj=Northern+Hemisphere+Polar+Stereographic&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot

 

By taking out the La Nina year (1988) and those with -PDO patterns throughout the summer (1967,1991 and 2009) we get the following composite;

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.pl?var=Geopotential+Height&level=1000mb&mon1=5&mon2=7&iy=&iy=1976&iy=1981&iy=1983&iy=1986&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&ipos%5B1%5D=&ipos%5B2%5D=&ineg%5B1%5D=&ineg%5B2%5D=&timefile0=&tstype=0&timefile1=&value=&typeval=1&compval=1&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=100&labelcon=1&switch=0&cint=&lowr=&highr=&proj=ALL&xlat1=0&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&custproj=Northern+Hemisphere+Polar+Stereographic&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot

 

This time we can see a much stronger high pressure anomaly right over the UK and North-Western Europe. Just for interest if we take the -PDO years and the La Nina summer we get the following composite;

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.pl?var=Geopotential+Height&level=1000mb&mon1=5&mon2=7&iy=1967&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=1988&iy=1991&iy=2009&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&ipos%5B1%5D=&ipos%5B2%5D=&ineg%5B1%5D=&ineg%5B2%5D=&timefile0=&tstype=0&timefile1=&value=&typeval=1&compval=1&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=100&labelcon=1&switch=0&cint=&lowr=&highr=&proj=ALL&xlat1=0&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&custproj=Northern+Hemisphere+Polar+Stereographic&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot

 

So my thoughts are if we can keep a positive PDO throughout the summer with an El Nino and the QBO transition is slow or the negative QBO weak then we should get a pleasant summer with more lengthy warm dry spells of weather

Edited April 13, 2014 by Supercell 89

[GRHinPorts]

Thanks for the decent analysis Supercell 89. Sounds like the whole thing is on a knife edge. The poorer Summers you mention above seem to be dominated by a rather boring westerly cool cloudy pattern than weeks and weeks of rain. Thinking 1981 and 1988 in particular.

[Summer Sun]

Early look at June and July from Netweather

 

June

 

June could prove to be a tricky month to nail down with no really clear signals from the expected pressure pattern, so low confidence at this stage. Currently with a weak low pressure anomaly close to the south of the UK, the CFS forecasting model is suggesting a wetter than average month is likely for a good deal of England and Wales with Scotland and Northern Ireland closer to normal. Temperatures countrywide are forecast to be near to, or a slightly warmer than the long term average.

 

July

 

As always at this range confidence falls away further, but at this stage with higher than average pressure forecast across the British Isles the outlook is for a generally drier and warmer month than average.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

 

Like the sound of July

 

Edited April 14, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Weather-history]

  1995/1996 - 1995 a wonderful summer, warmest driest sunniest August on record, summer 96 despite being close to average temp wise, was indeed a good one with lots of dry sunny warm weather. I've chosen 1996 as a pairing rather than 1994 which despite being much warmer, indeed we were on the brink of a very hot summer, was generally less settled with a very wet July, but you could pair it with 1994 

Summer 1994 is as underrated as summer 1990 is overrated IMO.Summer 1990 and 1994 have pretty similiar values overall, in terms of CET and rainfall.Summer 1994 was a good summer.

[Don]

Summer 1994 is as underrated as summer 1990 is overrated IMO.Summer 1990 and 1994 have pretty similiar values overall, in terms of CET and rainfall.Summer 1994 was a good summer.

 

I've always thought Summer 1994 gets forgotten because of the Summer that followed it.  However, I do remember July 1994 being hot at times.

[damianslaw]

I've always thought Summer 1994 gets forgotten because of the Summer that followed it.  However, I do remember July 1994 being hot at times.

 

 

Yes Summer 1994 was a good one for temperatures, but I seem to remember quite a lot of thundery rain at times.. my memory is a little hazy. It was often humid.

 

Summer 1996 was cooler but I remember it being very pleasant, less humid. Clusters and couplings of good summers have occurred, 03-06 being a very lengthy one, 75-76, 83-84, 89-91 and 94-96 (97 nearly added but the wet June ranks it outside of good ones, Aug 97 was indeed a very warm one, one of the warmest but it was also wet. Summer 94 and 97 were quite similar.

 

I've commented many a time on how dry spells have been followed by wet spells and vice versa, I wouldn't at all be surprised if we are now entering a dry period after a notably wet 6 months. Dry doesn't necessarily mean warm, even in summer, all depends on the air source, we can have dry cool summers  if heights are high to our north and northwest/west, mind such a synoptic is very rare in summer, we could end up with an azores high ridge and a northerly tracking jet which would be a very warm dry signal. Who knows? Not one forecast foresaw how wet and stormy a winter we just had.

[SP1986]

I agree with summer 2004 being underrated.. I can understand why however. When you look at the synoptic archives it was quite unsettled by nature, and actually the atmospheric temperatures were not that warm.. synoptically. However on the ground it was a different story - it was often unsettled, but this was a summer with a thundery nature, with lots of surface warmth coming in from Europe. This is essentially what must have contributed to it's thundery nature - relatively cool, dry upper air, and relative warm humid surface air. Some nice thunderstorms in summer 2004!

[AderynCoch]

The first half of August 2004 was very warm and thundery. A dream for convection-lovers.

 

I think we had low pressure anchored to the southwest of Britain, allowing warm air to be advected off the continent from the southeast but making it unsettled and humid (some very warm nights that month).

[Milhouse]

The noticeable feature of last Summer was the return of low pressure over Greenland instead of the monotonous high pressure that for so many summers had forced depressions on a southerly track towards the UK. Any warm and settled period was followed by a longer lasting unsettled period as low pressures queued up in the Atlantic to affect the UK. June 2012 was a classic example of this after a nice end to May. In 2012 the UK was very much stranded in a cool NW airstream. Last summers occasional unsettled conditions tended to come from a warmer source.

[cheeky_monkey]

I've always thought Summer 1994 gets forgotten because of the Summer that followed it.  However, I do remember July 1994 being hot at times.

Indeed..July 1994 was particularly hot and thundery in London where i was living at the time..reached the mid 30s on a few occasions

 

Summer 1994 is as underrated as summer 1990 is overrated IMO. 

Summer of 1990 was fabulous..May was very sunny and very warm..August was hot and sunny in the south east at least and who can forget the wonderful June with Italia 90 as the perfect backdrop to those long June evenings!

[Mokidugway]

End of june 94 at Glastonbury festival , some days the heat and humidity was at times unbearable , possibly one of hottest ive been to ,although not completely sunny !!....

[Frank Trough]

I was thinking about the recent abundance of above average months...what has it been? July, august (?), October, December, January, February, March, April..?  Can it continue? not indefinitely.

 

Predictions and models aside, surely we are due a few below average months and it would be typical they would occur in summer. I think May is going to be cold and wet (northern blocking lingering, troughing over us) and on the basis that above average has to end mulitplied by sod's law, i'm going for a cold, wetter than average summer. Plenty for Karyo and Laserguy to enjoy...and nothing much for the rest of us.

 

There, i've said it.