Summer 2014 thread

[matty007]

to me its all a bit too much.

 

i can deal with short term stuff but long term seems to be just pointless.  It never verifies to what people say and i don't see how people can interpret charts in different ways.

 

i look at the sky and the radar for my weather.

 

BUT i do appreciate others longer term outlooks and their interpriation on the weather.

 

True. It's all just intuition and guess work at the end of the day. 

 

All you can do is judge it against past trends and join the dots. But that's not to say you'll have the same outcome. For all we know we can be hit by a vicious heatwave in July with the record temperature being breached, anything can happen. The July 13' heatwave appeared quite quickly. 

 

But judging by the current weather and outlook, it seems very improbable, we're approaching a rut by the looks of it. Still, that's not to say it'll stay that way for long. 

[matty007]

What we have to remember is it's been a nice June overall. Warm for much of it, decent sunshine amounts and some thundery activity. Best June since 2009 in my opinion. 

 

More than likely this is just a blip and we'll see some nice weather in patches next month. 

 

The only thing that would really irk me is after the last 11 very pleasant months, especially those of Spring, it would come full circle just in time for Summer and all the way into Autumn like many were saying could happen. Law of averages says the month after month of well above average temperatures have to come to end at some point. Sods law it would be now. 

 

Like others have said, it could be worse. 

[hillbilly]

If it is the case that this july is to be another poor one then it begs the question what has happened to july?

[matty007]

If it is the case that this july is to be another poor one then it begs the question what has happened to july?

 

That question should be asked of August rather than July. While July's have been poor since 2006 for the most part we have had some decent ones in patches, especially 2010, and we had a fantastic one last year. 

 

August on the other hand has been dire. 

Edited June 27, 2014 by matty007

[SLAMMER]

yes but we can't do anything about it can we.

 

lord lummy you'd think we've worn the wrong coloured pants and are unlucky.

 

IT JUST HAPPENS

[AderynCoch]

yes but we can't do anything about it can we.

 

lord lummy you'd think we've worn the wrong coloured pants and are unlucky.

 

IT JUST HAPPENS

Sounds like you're on the wrong forum!

 

People like to talk about the weather on here, whether they're happy with it or not. That we can't change the weather is irrelevant.

[reef]

I'm afraid it's the all familiar story. Nice spring but as soon as you approach and get into July (which should be the hottest month of the year) the temperatures and sun amounts take a nosedive, with the exception of last year, where coincidentally we had a poor spring. This Summer is looking ominously like it could shape up like 2011. Albeit it's very early to tell. 

 

I can't see us getting another spell like July of last year that's for sure. But things can change, seems unlikely to me though. This last 11 months has been very notable for it's high minima but low maxima. 

 

My gut is still telling me we'll see the best of the weather in late July and August. 

 

I'm not sure where this keeps coming from. Mean maxima have generally shown a larger positive anomaly in the last 12 months than minima have. Taking this year so far for example:

 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_max.html

 

Mean max is 2.05C above the 1961-90 average.

 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_min.html

 

Mean min in 1.75C above the 1961-90 average.

 

The last 12 months are likely very similar overall when you look at months like July 2013:

 

Mean Max: 24.0C (+3.6C)

Mean Min: 12.7C (+1.0C)

 

and August 2013:

 

Mean Max: 21.4C (+1.3C)

Mean Min: 12.4C (+1.0C)

 

Seems to be a bit of an urban myth. What it has been however is homogenously warm without any great extremes, perhaps that's what people mean.

[Zenarcher]

My forecast for July can be found here http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4802-july-2014-forecast/

[Weather-history]

The CFS seem to have higher hopes for July now, when I looked at the temperature anomolies on there today it was even indicating 2 above average in the CET area. I was pleased with what I saw Scott, I'm telling ya.

Interesting but why do people get hung up about CFS?As I said last year I'm sure CFS stands for Complete Fantasy Scenarios.

[Summer Sun]

Turning a lot warmer for the second half of the week possibly hitting 28c in the south east

 

[Captain Shortwave]

This summer has been pretty strange, again July looked like being possibly cooler and wetter than normal. But again at the death we are now looking at the CET for the first week of July looks like being above or even well above average given fairly high maxima and minima given the relatively high humidity from a west/south westerly flow.

Edited June 29, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Geordiesnow]

To be honest, I think June in my area in term of sunshine levels has been a bit dissapointing, it has not been helped by the wind direction by any means really and the pattern of high pressure just to the West has been a bit of a factor this month. 

 

However rainfall has been below average I'm pretty certain so pretty uneventful month but by no means a shocker. 

 

Looks like the weather patterns for next week look very normal like too me, low heights over Greenland, jet stream buckling just to the North of Scotland and some fine sunny days to come for some areas. I'm just happy we are finally going too see Westerly facing winds as these Northerlies has bought quite a fair number of cloudy days.

[SP1986]

Funny, the models have now backtracked towards something cooler/unsettled for the start of July. 

 

Point being, I suppose, why take notice of even mid range, when the models have been so poor of recently at that time frame?

Edited June 29, 2014 by SP1986

[SP1986]

Well we'll see, as it stands, my location is heading for the coolest absolute maximum on my records, so it'll need another 1C higher to ensure we don't set that unwanted record.

Edited June 30, 2014 by reef
Original quoted post removed

[Summer Sun]

Wouldn't be surprised if somewhere in the London area gets close to 28c on Wednesday and or Thursday

 

[Derp Patrol]

About time! A high of only 26.4C so far this year in both May and June..

[Weather-history]

One summer month down, two to go.

June was a decent month here.

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday has backed of slightly now but Thursday still has every chance of seeing 28c somewhere in the south, Friday is now looking like a very warm day in the south so another possibility for hitting 28c cooler in the north though under the rain which will be moving across all parts by Saturday

 

Edited July 1, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Supercell 89]

June was a very typical early summer month for me i felt in Reading and it was lovely. Mostly warm and dry with temperatures in the low 20's with a few cooler days slotted in-between and some thunderstorms. If July carries on in the same vein but is slightly warmer than I'll be ranking this summer quite highly.  

 

Highest temp was 23.9c but this year has been pretty strange its been persistently warm but its never gotten hot. However back at my parents in South Devon its been a different story, its been very dry and very warm month with temperatures in the low to mid 20's for at least two and a half weeks with it reaching 24c at least five times during the month but was more average and wet during the last few days. 

 

There seems to be a lot of hinting of riding coming in strong for the second week of July. I have a hunch we may see that developing russian high pressure link up with ridge from the azores during the middle part of the month which could give a widespread spell of very warm and mostly settled weather. Just a hunch though  

[summer blizzard]

The problem we had with summers 2007-12 were that we had a protracted la nina domination along with very low solar activity, although November 2011 was our first peak of the solar cycle, the second was February of this year.

 

09 and 12 had Nino i think.

[Richard2901]

Good riddance to June 2014 one of the worst summer months on record. Just hideous with only 117.5 hours sun here - 69% of average and 0.4 hours fewer than November 2013 managed. Yet again we see the familiar 2007-12 scenario of the summer months being gloomier than the traditionally gloomy months

 

7th dullest June locally since 1881 ahead of only 2007, 1912, 1966, 2012, 1916 and 1954. Worst ever anticyclonic summer month. June 1932 was a similar type month with high pressure to the west but managed 134 hours sun at Craibstone and more dry days.

 

The abysmal run of Junes just goes on and on. June was most commonly the sunniest month of the year here but has not been since 1996. Sunshine has dropped from 190 hours for 1921-50 to 170 hours for 1981-2010 and a disgusting 143 hours for 2007-14 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Richard2901 do you think it might be best for you to move house? I mean,you sound a very very stressed individual.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Good riddance to June 2014 one of the worst summer months on record. Just hideous with only 117.5 hours sun here - 69% of average and 0.4 hours fewer than November 2013 managed. Yet again we see the familiar 2007-12 scenario of the summer months being gloomier than the traditionally gloomy months

 

7th dullest June locally since 1881 ahead of only 2007, 1912, 1966, 2012, 1916 and 1954. Worst ever anticyclonic summer month. June 1932 was a similar type month with high pressure to the west but managed 134 hours sun at Craibstone and more dry days.

 

The abysmal run of Junes just goes on and on. June was most commonly the sunniest month of the year here but has not been since 1996. Sunshine has dropped from 190 hours for 1921-50 to 170 hours for 1981-2010 and a disgusting 143 hours for 2007-14 

 

Swap locations?, I'm not keen on warm weather

[weatherguru14]

For those enjoying the heat.and sunshine. its dark and looks like rain here   honestly cant remember  a summer thus far. so devoid of sunshine. Sure we had the odd nice  day. But  just the odd day..

[cheeky_monkey]

For those enjoying the heat.and sunshine. its dark and looks like rain here   honestly cant remember  a summer thus far. so devoid of sunshine. Sure we had the odd nice  day. But  just the odd day..

Warm and sunny here again..cheers