Summer 2014 thread

[cheeky_monkey]

Summer 2003 was decent but it was nothing compared to 1995.Manchester Summer IndexSummers in order with the best at the top and the worst at the bottom1976 3011995 2981983 2781955 2771911 2741984 2711959 2691975 2681949 2671989 2622013 2601947 2551933 2511901 2491921 2492003 2471925 2462006 2461996 2451935 2431994 2401934 2381940 2381941 2361970 2351969 2341973 2341999 2341997 2321990 2291917 2281926 2272005 2241905 2231932 2231945 2231967 2231977 2231914 2221992 2221908 2201960 2171950 2161957 2161968 2151906 2141942 2141937 2131939 2131904 2121929 2112001 2111903 2091943 2091991 2071913 2051971 2051919 2031961 2031982 2031951 2011918 2001944 2002002 2001930 1991974 1991979 1991952 1982000 1981928 1971962 1971964 1972004 1971915 1961981 1961902 1951963 1941993 1942009 1941953 1931966 1921998 1921988 1912010 1911910 1901936 1901965 1891986 1891916 1881972 1851958 1841985 1802011 1791922 1781938 1771948 1761927 1751920 1741923 1742007 1741931 1731978 1731980 1731909 1711946 1701987 1692008 1682012 1641924 1581912 1561956 1551907 1471954 143

Surprised no one has commented on 1983 being number 3 on the list. Very much a forgotten hot summer dservedly up there with 1976 & 95 but never ever gets a mention when people talk about hot sunny weather with regards to summer

Edited May 14, 2014 by cheeky_monkey

[Summer Sun]

The first Netweather summer 2014 forecast is out

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

Edited May 14, 2014 by Summer Sun

[NeilN]

So warm and wet the theme is then?

 

Isn't this in parallel with the last two years ending with 4? 

[Weather-history]

So warm and wet the theme is then? Isn't this in parallel with the last two years ending with 4?

If you are referring to 1994 and 2004, 1994 was a dry summer overall at least south of the Border.

[GRHinPorts]

That Netweather forecast has a sub 200 Manchester Summer Index written all over it.

[lassie23]

Good start to the summer according to this video at www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php, with June being the best month, then things go downhill in July and August!

Edited May 16, 2014 by lassie23

[EML Network]

Mark my words, Summer will be wet, Summer will have some very hot days (35 +) and vicious thunderstorms. 

 

But wall to wall sunshine it will NOT be, CET will be about the norm for most, but it won't tell the full story. 

 

Anything but dull weather over the next 3 months IMO. 

[AderynCoch]

That Netweather forecast has a sub 200 Manchester Summer Index written all over it.

Close to average rainfall and warmer than average temperatures? I don't think so, unless there's a notable lack of sunshine involved.

Edited May 16, 2014 by AderynCoch

[fendermaestro]

Vantage Weather Services formerly known as Positive Weather Solutions aka Jonanthan Powell has produced its/his Summer 2014 forecast and here it is:

 

Summer 2014:  Some Favourable Passages of Weather.

 

JUNE 2014

June looks likely to offer some decent spells of weather with warm temperatures to match.  Whilst projections seem to run close to the average a lot of the time against year on year records, there is, especially across southern and eastern areas, a lean towards drier and warmer than average values.  The rest of the country will also experience some fair weather, but probably tempered by the Atlantic, making for quite a changeable regime.  That said, even across the more favoured areas, any good run of weather will be broken down by thunderstorm activity.  Over all, June looks likely to be on balance, a slightly drier and slightly warmer than average month.

 

JULY 2014

With July 2012 and July 2013 offering some fine and settled weather at times, (especially the latter), it is expected that a similar pattern may well emerge again for 2014, although the duration and temperature properties associated with it remain in question.  Of the three summer months, whilst June offers more in the way of chances for fine weather to build-in, July could see a 'sun or bust' scenario, where we may well see one individual settled run of warm to very warm weather, or next to nothing.  During the said run of weather, the potential for some extreme temperature values may occur.  Over all, July will come in on the average for rainfall, with temperatures on or above average.

 

AUGUST 2014

August, (whilst offering some early summer weather in the month, and again late in the month heading out into September), will be largely changeable with wet and cooler days mixed in with bursts of drier and warmer ones.  The VWS system reflects average on rainfall and temperatures which would appear to back-up some short-lived warm phases given the time of year, quickly being replaced following thunderstorm activity by more changeable conditions.  It doesn't seem that August will be the case of 'saving the best until last' as June and July may have already seen the best of what was on offer.  For August, average to slightly above average rainfall, temperatures on or around the average.

 

VWS

Sunday May 18th 2014

 

Now ladies & gents, DO NOT shoot the messenger!  I only post this forecast for what its worth.  I know how some of you feel about James Madden, Jonathan Powell and others and I also know that neither of these named gentlemen publish any science or reasoning behind their predictions.  Interestingly, Powell forecast a reasonably poor Summer last year and was way out in all three months!  Enjoy

[Weather-history]

Vantage Weather Services formerly known as Positive Weather Solutions aka Jonanthan Powell has produced its/his Summer 2014 forecast and here it is:

JULY 2014

With July 2012 and July 2013 offering some fine and settled weather at times, (especially the latter), it is expected that a similar pattern may well emerge again for 2014,

Jonathan Powell needs to look at the weather history of those two months. There is no way July 2012 and July 2013 can be comparable.

For a start there is nearly 3C difference in the CET and about 65mm difference in rainfall!

Edited May 20, 2014 by Weather-history

[damianslaw]

Summer tends to show its true hand in late June, this is when the northern hemisphere settles into its summer base state, I've said before a southerly positioned jet by that stage of the summer should be viewed with concern, the jet tends to lock itself into position for the rest of the summer. If we look at 2012 and 2013 we saw two very contrasting jet stream positions in early July, in 2012 very southerly, 2013 northerly. Some early forecasts are suggesting a fairly normal positioned jet in June, but more southerly positioned in July and August, we saw such a pattern in 2009 and 2010, half decent summers but with fairly poor second halves in particular after some early decent warmth.

[Alex]

Summer tends to show its true hand in late June, this is when the northern hemisphere settles into its summer base state, I've said before a southerly positioned jet by that stage of the summer should be viewed with concern, the jet tends to lock itself into position for the rest of the summer. If we look at 2012 and 2013 we saw two very contrasting jet stream positions in early July, in 2012 very southerly, 2013 northerly. Some early forecasts are suggesting a fairly normal positioned jet in June, but more southerly positioned in July and August, we saw such a pattern in 2009 and 2010, half decent summers but with fairly poor second halves in particular after some early decent warmth.

June and July 2010 was great here in Essex but August was horrendous. I think July averaged around 25c avg max. Although there was a drier cooler interlude mid month in June.2009 was mixed but August was generally settled and warm. Edited May 21, 2014 by Alex

[cheese]

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2014/590x331_05161203_europe-summer-highlights4-hd-(1).jpg

[hillbilly]

Vantage Weather Services formerly known as Positive Weather Solutions aka Jonanthan Powell has produced its/his Summer 2014 forecast and here it is:

 

Summer 2014:  Some Favourable Passages of Weather.

 

JUNE 2014

June looks likely to offer some decent spells of weather with warm temperatures to match.  Whilst projections seem to run close to the average a lot of the time against year on year records, there is, especially across southern and eastern areas, a lean towards drier and warmer than average values.  The rest of the country will also experience some fair weather, but probably tempered by the Atlantic, making for quite a changeable regime.  That said, even across the more favoured areas, any good run of weather will be broken down by thunderstorm activity.  Over all, June looks likely to be on balance, a slightly drier and slightly warmer than average month.

 

JULY 2014

With July 2012 and July 2013 offering some fine and settled weather at times, (especially the latter), it is expected that a similar pattern may well emerge again for 2014, although the duration and temperature properties associated with it remain in question.  Of the three summer months, whilst June offers more in the way of chances for fine weather to build-in, July could see a 'sun or bust' scenario, where we may well see one individual settled run of warm to very warm weather, or next to nothing.  During the said run of weather, the potential for some extreme temperature values may occur.  Over all, July will come in on the average for rainfall, with temperatures on or above average.

 

AUGUST 2014

August, (whilst offering some early summer weather in the month, and again late in the month heading out into September), will be largely changeable with wet and cooler days mixed in with bursts of drier and warmer ones.  The VWS system reflects average on rainfall and temperatures which would appear to back-up some short-lived warm phases given the time of year, quickly being replaced following thunderstorm activity by more changeable conditions.  It doesn't seem that August will be the case of 'saving the best until last' as June and July may have already seen the best of what was on offer.  For August, average to slightly above average rainfall, temperatures on or around the average.

 

VWS

Sunday May 18th 2014

 

Now ladies & gents, DO NOT shoot the messenger!  I only post this forecast for what its worth.  I know how some of you feel about James Madden, Jonathan Powell and others and I also know that neither of these named gentlemen publish any science or reasoning behind their predictions.  Interestingly, Powell forecast a reasonably poor Summer last year and was way out in all three months!  Enjoy

My 10 year old could guess a better forcast than that...it is meaningless!!!!

[stewfox]

My 10 year old could guess a better forcast than that...it is meaningless!!!!

 

Its a weather forecast , do you want to post yours.

[Don]

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2014/590x331_05161203_europe-summer-highlights4-hd-(1).jpg

 

 

Accuweather seem to have done rather well with their last few Winter forecasts.  Not sure about their Summer forecasts though?  Any ideas?

[NeilN]

Can we have heatwaves please?

 

Yes 2009/2010 had offered promise, but didn't deliver that well. 

[Summer Sun]

Full accuweather European Summer Forecast 2014 is Widespread Heat & Drought for those that have not viewed it here is the link: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/european-summer-forecast-2014/27004460

 

For the UK

 

United Kingdom to Start Cooler, Wetter

 

The United Kingdom has had one of the wettest winters on record, which will account for some lingering wetness and cooler temperatures to start the summer. However, by August that will no longer be the case. "I think it's going to be a lot of different than the winter was with all those storms in the U.K.," Reppert said. "It's going to be drying out and getting warm." The U.K. is expected to experience average rainfall and temperature levels overall for the season.

 

Here is 2013's for anyone who wants to compare: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2013-europe-summer-forecast/13458131

[Weather-history]

The United Kingdom has had one of the wettest winters on record, which will account for some lingering wetness and cooler temperatures to start the summer.

That's just twaddle, IMO. What happened last winter will have nothing to do what will happen with the start of summer. Have they forgotten that there a season in between called spring? What lingering wetness? The spring has not been that wet. Infact, I think it is close to average for England and Wales. If the wetness of last winter didn't carry on into the spring, why should it have any effect on the start of summer?Also temperatures have been above average for weeks. Edited May 22, 2014 by Weather-history

[hillbilly]

Its a weather forecast , do you want to post yours.

It contradicts everywhere!!!!There will be some good spells.....it will be changeable....it will be close to average.....there could be thunderstorms..........Is there anything it will not be??????

Yes I will give my prediction........2 weeks of good sunshine in each of june,july and august...august being the best month and june being cooler,a drier summer.........Based purely on the law of averages and not a single metreological chart in sight!!!!!

[damianslaw]

This isn't a forecast, just how I hope our summer weather to be -

 

June - starting off showery with decent sunny spells and average conditions, by the solstice a dry warm clear spell to make the most of maximum daylight, these conditions lasting through July - in the main I always hope July to be a sunny dry warm month, maxima between 22-25 degrees suits me fine, I'm never after a heatwave as such, though a shortlived spell of maxima up to 28 degrees is always a bonus a Spanish plume type set up with a crashing firework breakdown. Into August dry and sunny - peak holiday season, but by mid August I'm ok with things turning generally unsettled and perhaps thundery by then we are losing daylight quite rapidly and things tend to take on a wistful late summer feel. Last summer was quite perfect in this respect and followed this pattern in the main.

[Summer of 95]

That's just twaddle, IMO.What happened last winter will have nothing to do what will happen with the start of summer. Have they forgotten that there a season in between called spring? What lingering wetness? The spring has not been that wet. Infact, I think it is close to average for England and Wales. If the wetness of last winter didn't carry on into the spring, why should it have any effect on the start of summer?Also temperatures have been above average for weeks.

 

I actually do think the wetness of the winter is still having an effect now. Every time it rains large puddles and areas of standing water form, disproportionate to the amount of rain that's come down. Especially noticeable in fields and gardens- our garden still doesn't seem to have dried out (I notice this each time I cut the grass).

 

Also we had several spells of high pressure and dry air during the spring, which normally would have given weather similar to late March 2012. But often they just gave fog, mist and low cloud this time around, which seemed to me a result of the ground still being so wet, it basically formed sea mist over land. Last weekend's was the first one that didn't, but even then the temps didn't rise quite as high as they might (21-22, compare 25-26 in the similar setup ln May 2012) which I think is due to the sun using much of its energy drying the ground up. 

 

This may still have an effect on maxima in summer:  it just needs the ground to dry out but the fog and cloud prevented this happening during spring's dry spells. What we really needed more than anything to dry it up was the one thing that's been absent for over a year now, a frosty spell. 

[Summer Sun]

Unfortunately the models at the moment are showing June, at least the first half of it, to be potentially quite cool and wet at this stage. However as I've seen people post before, Summer generally doesn't show it's true colours until late June and early July, with Summer 2013 being a classic example of this.

 

Yes, additional rain in June may hinder temperatures should we get a persistent area or high pressure building in July or August, but as long as it's sunny with temperatures maybe hovering 25-28°C for a few weeks, would suit me fine. Of course I certainly wouldn't mind hotter, but I would settle for what I just suggested.

 

Yes June can often start cooler and wet its towards mid June when things can start to improve take 1976 as an example the hottest summer ever in the UK with the drought but it didn't get going properly till mid month then by the end of the month high pressure really started to build and so did the heat

 

[weatherguru14]

From my recollection of last june  in the western part of the uk. The first 2 weeks was excellent..And felt different last summer.. this year  it feels  like a typical summer in the UK and that's unsettled.

2013 was the exception to the rule.We will get some good periods  this summer. But nothing great.. That's just my opinion.

[J10]

From my recollection of last june  in the western part of the uk. The first 2 weeks was excellent..And felt different last summer.. this year  it feels  like a typical summer in the UK and that's unsettled.

2013 was the exception to the rule.We will get some good periods  this summer. But nothing great.. That's just my opinion.

 

Indeed the start of June last year was great (at least in western areas), pretty much 10 days unbroken sunshine, no real heatwave but pleasant enough.