Summer 2014 thread

[Don]

In fact every month since and including June 2013 have been above average. I predict April coming out above average too, so that's 11 above average months in a row so far.

 

At 13.6C, June 2013 was below average.  We then abruptly shifted to a warm phase in July.

[summer blizzard]

At 13.6C, June 2013 was below average.  We then abruptly shifted to a warm phase in July.

 

November was cooler than average.

[cheese]

Oh, I thought June was actually relatively warm, or it just seemed warmish. Fair enough...

It was average here more than anything. As ever, there are local discrepancies. It was cloudy though.

Edited April 23, 2014 by cheese

[damianslaw]

Since summer 07 we have had quite well defined periods of average/below average temps and average/above average temps, but this is turning into a notable lengthy spell of consistently above temperatures, the longest since the very mild period between May 06 and May 07.

 

June 07 marked a turning point of sorts to a more average spell of weather temp wise, before we saw another above average spell from Nov 07 - May 08. June 08 - Feb 09 saw a period of mostly below average temps with a few quite chilly months relative to average. A warm period then followed in the main from March 09 through to November 09 with a notable very mild November. A marked cool down occurred between December 09 and Jan 11 with some very chilly months especially Jan 10 and Dec 10. Feb 11 - Mar 12 produced a lengthy period of mostly well above average temps, with some very mild months in April 11, Sep/Oct 11, March 12. April 12 - June 13 saw the opposite with another bout of cold months especially March 13. Since July 13 its been very mild in the main, indeed apart from one or two weeks in Sept and November there has barely been a few days of temps below the seasonal average - preety exceptional. Its inevitable we will see a cooler phase at some point and sod's law would favour this coinciding with the warmer months of the year May - September, but it may only be a temporary blip, I bit like what occurred in Nov 05 - March 06 period which was sandwiched in a lengthy warm phase roughly starting June 04 and ending in June 07.

Edited April 24, 2014 by damianslaw

[GRHinPorts]

This evening I have been looking to see if there is any correlation between warmth/cold in the Spring and the quality of the following Summer. I just looked at the years 1971-2013 (i.e the years of my life) so the sample size maybe two small for any serious conclusions to be drawn. 

 

The first thing I found in doing is this that both Spring and Summer have become progressively warmer (as per the CET) - in particular since 1989. However whilst cooler Summers (as per the CET) have become relatively unusual its the increase in Spring temps that is really striking. Since 1989 there have been 16  Springs above average by half a degree and 10 of these were over 1 degree above average across the Season. Only 2 years since 1989 have produced Springs 1 degree below average. By comparison there have only been 10 Summers since 1989 that were above average by half a degree and only 3 that were 1 degree above average. Only two Summers since 1989 though were even a modest half a degree below average. This in spite of all the poor run of Summers we all felt we endured between 2007-2012.

 

Obviously this poorness or quality of a Summer goes beyond mere CET as so often in the Summer we can often get wet mild muggy weather where high mimimums push up the CET but sunshine and high maximas are in short supply (June 2007 and August 2004 immediately come to mind). So to get around this problem I decided to compare Spring CET with the Manchester Summer Index for the following Summer.

 

Whilst I hesitate to say there is any genuine link it is striking how often cold Springs produced a high Manchester Summer Index (1975, 1983, 1984, 1996 and 2013 being striking examples) and more relevantly how warm Springs are often followed by a low Manchester Summer Index (1998, 2000, 2004, and all of 2007-2012). 

 

Of course there were years where it worked the other way but looking at the average for the 43 years the Spring CET is 8.72 and the Manchester Summer Index is 215.

 

However averaging the Summer Index for all Spring CETs under 8.72 gives a figure of 221.53. Where as averaging the Summer Index for all Spring CETs above 8.72 gives just a figure of 209.83.

[GRHinPorts]

The relevance of the above in relation to Summer 2014 is just that the CET for this Spring is surely to be above the 8.72 average (CET since 1971) so the odds to me seem to point to a below average Summer.

[GRHinPorts]

I refined my calculation this morning to look at just since 1989...(i.e only 25 years which weakens the statistical validity yet further)...and the inverse correlation between Spring CET and the Manchester Summer Index becomes even stronger.

 

Since 1989 the average Spring CET has been 9.14.

 

Those Springs below this mark average have a Summer Index Average of 240.

 

Those Springs above this mark average have a Summer Index Average of 203.

 

Further more the warmth of the Spring would probably push 2005 (Spring CET 9.17, Summer Index 224) into the below average half worsening the upper halfs Summer Index average yet further. But of course we will have to wait to see yet how Summer 2014 turns out.

[hillbilly]

It does appear to me that most of you out there judge summer by temps and cet whereas to me being brought up as a farmer I judge it by sunshine and settled patterns as we used to make the majority of our hay from end of june into august so I am going to list the summers as I remember them.....this is a bit general and it is based on this area of the pennines

....1975   9/10

1976   10/10

1977 4/10

1978 5/10

1980   5/10

1981   6/10

1982   7/10

1983   9/10

1984   9/10

1985   4/10

1986   4/10

1987   4/10

1988   4/10

1989   9/10

1990   8/10

1991   6/10

1992   6/10

1993   6/10

1994   7/10

1995   10/10

1996   9/10

 1997   8/10

1998   4/10

1999   7/10

2000   7/10

2001   7/10

2002   4/10

2003   9/10

2004   8/10

2005   6/10

2006   9/10

2007   4/10

2008   0/10

2009   3/10

2010   3/10

2011   4/10

2012   1/10

2013   7/10

giving aaprox 2 very good summers per decade and 2 poor ones ....except the last few years!!!!!!

[Supercell 89]

2009 I would call a warm summer despite it being changeable and had a warmer CET than in 1991. The el nino we had in 2009 I think prevented it being a total stinker that it could have been, however the AO was negative caused by the easterly QBO settling in.

 

Yeah sorry it was my personal view of it from the South Devon as we had a very warm june followed by a cold July like most of the UK but the August was coolish but the further east you went it was more near average and it was above average for the South East as they had frequent S/SE flows off the continent if I remember rightly but I do think this was El Nino's influence kicking in as you say.

 

The -QBO and the PDO combination I think were the key points to that summer being unsettled during July to early August, interestingly 1991 and 2009 were quite similar in respect of ENSO, QBO but the PDO turned positive more quickly and was positive during the August.

 

Looking at this year, again those two years are pretty close, especially 1991 however we haven't had a -PDO since late last year and it was very positive during March so we are in a much better starting position for this summer than those two which had strong -PDO springs. Looking at the SST's in the Northern Pacific they don't seem to have been showing a strong +PDO pattern the last few weeks so its possible we may see a return to more neutral conditions for a time or perhaps even into weak -PDO territory. 

 

The ENSO conditions remain mostly positive with warm SST's across the pacific except for S.America but they have decreased since early April.  I've been watching it since January and it seems to be building in waves with each burst of low level westerly winds from Indonesia. Theres currently been another build up of westerly low level winds over Indonesia, coupled with the Kelvin wave which is now coming to the surface across S.America we could see another increase in STT's, particularly around S.America. If I was to be really bold i'd say we may see a quick transition to weak El Nino during the next month or so but this is the first time i've routinely watched a possible ENSO event build so I'm certainly no expert. 

 

So in regards to this summer I think the next few weeks may paint a better picture for where we may be heading

[Zenarcher]

My May 2014 forecast http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4747-may-2014-forecast/

[summer blizzard]

For anybody concerned about northern blocking in the outlook its worth a note that May's 10, 07 and 05 were average to cool and were all followed by warm June's (though 07 was horrifically wet).

[Alex]

All of those may months were -QBO influenced SB although 2010 was changing from negative to positive pretty much in the spate of 3 months. Wish Alex was here for his analysis of angular momentum and other factors. The sun on the other hand seems to be declining in activity, now I'm not sure whether that'll bode well for the summer coming up. However we'll just have to wait and see what effect that has on the gulf stream for the summer.

Sorry people, been away for a while with other commitments.Anyways this summer is v interesting for a number of reasons.Firstly we have a rapidly declining QBO coupled with a neutral MEI.PDO has recently swung to positive and this is associated with a developing El Niño.With rapidly changing upstream patterns I think you can totally ignore May, of course summer could follow in a similar vain.At the moment my thoughts are for a decent start to summer, The developing El Niño is not evident enough to have much effect on us yet. Interestingly enough sea ice is at much larger values than recent years. The developing easterly based QBO is of more concern however with the other upstream patterns, I feel that we could see a greater than avg chance of scandi blocking particularly around the early part of summer.Towards August there is of course considerable uncertainty but I would punt for a more 2004 style month so warm and wet.Therefore in summary, early thoughts are for a decent summer probably nothing spectacular but there will be changeable periods particularly to the north and west. August is looking wetter.I will update my thoughts towards the end of May along with looking at longer term modelling, for now check out my twitter feed - @alexbweather.

[johnholmes]

the latest from ENSO=

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

[laserguy]

Seen on TWO that Gavin P has hinted a possibility of Flaming June according to korean model and I hope it comes off.

 

Me too... in Korea.

[Supercell 89]

The latest QBO data has come in and shows that the +QBO is now well on the decline with last months reading coming in at 7.15 a decline from 11.72. So I would expect a transition to a weak -ve stage during June very much like 2009.

 

Also i've been trying to find some information on the chase of phase state of the QBO as i'm sure i read on here once, possibly courtesy of GP that these phase changes have an impact upon the troposphere for a time and also that March 2013 was one example of that but again I can't find anything so not sure if its me going crazy or if I misread something at some point, don't know if anyone else knows? 

 

The PDO looks like its starting to turn more positive again judging by the latest SST anomalies and with the pacific looking more favourably towards a weak El Nino event this could help us possibly see the PDO remain positive for the summer which puts us in a much more favourable position to 2009 when the PDO was weakly negative throughout the majority of the summer. However we will have to see if this ENSO event really takes off in the next few weeks.

 

So at the moment I still think a warm dry summer is likely for the UK especially if we can keep a positive PDO phase throughout. 

Edited May 8, 2014 by Supercell 89

[Cheshire Freeze]

I wouldnt mind a summer like 2009 I think it was as we had some good thundery days and nights then and some decent warm stretches!

 

I remember summer 2009 being decent for its convective episodes. I lost count of how many storms I saw that year....and not many of those episodes were from plume events either as I recall.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Sorry people, been away for a while with other commitments.Anyways this summer is v interesting for a number of reasons.Firstly we have a rapidly declining QBO coupled with a neutral MEI.PDO has recently swung to positive and this is associated with a developing El Niño.With rapidly changing upstream patterns I think you can totally ignore May, of course summer could follow in a similar vain.At the moment my thoughts are for a decent start to summer, The developing El Niño is not evident enough to have much effect on us yet. Interestingly enough sea ice is at much larger values than recent years. The developing easterly based QBO is of more concern however with the other upstream patterns, I feel that we could see a greater than avg chance of scandi blocking particularly around the early part of summer.Towards August there is of course considerable uncertainty but I would punt for a more 2004 style month so warm and wet.Therefore in summary, early thoughts are for a decent summer probably nothing spectacular but there will be changeable periods particularly to the north and west. August is looking wetter.I will update my thoughts towards the end of May along with looking at longer term modelling, for now check out my twitter feed - @alexbweather.

 

I'd take a warm, wet summer in all honesty- as long as it wasn't incessantly wet......given the wet winter 2013/14 it surely increases the chances of a (cold) dry winter  The -QBO should, in theory, give this a helping hand also.

 

All fits together very nicely with the potentially developing el Nino. From Paul Hudson's blog posted on the ENSO thread...

 

''Research suggests that the main impact is more likely to be felt in winter, causing colder, drier conditions in Northern Europe, and wetter, milder winters through southern Europe and the Mediterranean.During the last El Nino of 2009/2010, the winter across northern Europe, including the UK was exceptionally cold''

 

Then again when does the weather ever follow the form guide!

Edited May 9, 2014 by CreweCold

[neige57]

The latest QBO data has come in and shows that the +QBO is now well on the decline with last months reading coming in at 7.15 a decline from 11.72. So I would expect a transition to a weak -ve stage during June very much like 2009.

 

Also i've been trying to find some information on the chase of phase state of the QBO as i'm sure i read on here once, possibly courtesy of GP that these phase changes have an impact upon the troposphere for a time and also that March 2013 was one example of that but again I can't find anything so not sure if its me going crazy or if I misread something at some point, don't know if anyone else knows? 

 

The PDO looks like its starting to turn more positive again judging by the latest SST anomalies and with the pacific looking more favourably towards a weak El Nino event this could help us possibly see the PDO remain positive for the summer which puts us in a much more favourable position to 2009 when the PDO was weakly negative throughout the majority of the summer. However we will have to see if this ENSO event really takes off in the next few weeks.

 

So at the moment I still think a warm dry summer is likely for the UK especially if we can keep a positive PDO phase throughout. 

 

 

The QBO is already past in its negative phase since April 20

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf10/ecmwfzm_u_f240.gif

 

 

His first negative phase will be May so a month earlier than in 2009

 

On the summer I not see him warm and dry but disturbed, often moist and cool but warm in the central Europe. QBO and ENSO + are not conducive to stable summers on Western Europe in the image of the summer of 1972 (same indices)

[Supercell 89]

The QBO is already past in its negative phase since April 20

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf10/ecmwfzm_u_f240.gif

 

 

His first negative phase will be May so a month earlier than in 2009

 

On the summer I not see him warm and dry but disturbed, often moist and cool but warm in the central Europe. QBO and ENSO + are not conducive to stable summers on Western Europe in the image of the summer of 1972 (same indices)

 

Is it me or is there still positive anomalies shown down to the surface on that chart? As to me it looks like the +ve values are just starting to be flushed down to the troposphere before the negative values take their place, so we could yet still have another month or so of the +QBO's influence? (I am trying to still familiarise myself with these charts)

 

Comparing this year with 1972 though, 1972 had a -PDO for the majority of the summer like 2009, in fact it was more strongly negative. The latest PDO values are out and its strengthened to 1.12 during April making it the highest value its been since July 2006. If it stays on this course I think this may be able to counter the -QBO during the summer but if it weakens to more neutral values then I would favour more cooler and unsettled conditions prevailing.  

 

PDO link  

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[Weather-history]

Overall, my dream summer would be the heat and sun of 2003 and 2006, but also the thunderstorms of 2012 - just more widespread and not confined to the East of England.

Summer 2003 was decent but it was nothing compared to 1995.Manchester Summer IndexSummers in order with the best at the top and the worst at the bottom 1976 3011995 2981983 2781955 2771911 2741984 2711959 2691975 2681949 2671989 2622013 260 1947 2551933 2511901 2491921 2492003 2471925 2462006 2461996 2451935 243 1994 2401934 2381940 2381941 2361970 2351969 2341973 2341999 2341997 2321990 2291917 2281926 2272005 2241905 2231932 2231945 2231967 2231977 2231914 2221992 2221908 2201960 2171950 2161957 2161968 2151906 2141942 2141937 2131939 2131904 2121929 2112001 2111903 2091943 2091991 2071913 2051971 2051919 2031961 2031982 2031951 2011918 2001944 2002002 2001930 1991974 1991979 1991952 1982000 1981928 1971962 1971964 1972004 1971915 1961981 1961902 1951963 1941993 1942009 1941953 1931966 1921998 1921988 1912010 1911910 1901936 1901965 1891986 1891916 1881972 1851958 1841985 1802011 1791922 1781938 1771948 1761927 1751920 1741923 1742007 1741931 1731978 1731980 1731909 1711946 1701987 1692008 1682012 1641924 1581912 1561956 1551907 1471954 143 Edited May 12, 2014 by Weather-history

[Summer of 95]

2003 was certainly very overrated, especially outside the SE- as is 2013 to some extent. Apart from those 10 days in July it wasn't really anything special.

2006 is so low down presumably because of the August, I wonder what it would score with August and September swapped round?

[CongletonHeat]

The best two summers i have known were obviously 76 and 95, 19 years apart so this year will be brilliant on that basis.

[hillbilly]

How 2013 got so high up that list I will never know,the midlands must have been far better than round here,i would place it 10 places lower at least on the list for this area!

[Costa Del Fal]

2003 was certainly very overrated, especially outside the SE- as is 2013 to some extent. Apart from those 10 days in July it wasn't really anything special.2006 is so low down presumably because of the August, I wonder what it would score with August and September swapped round?

I really disagree about last year. July was fantastic all round. The end was more unsettled but still warm and thundery. August although not as good still wasnt bad. A hell of a lot better than most summers. 

[damianslaw]

Always difficult to predict summer. We've had a very long period of above average temperatures - considerably so since July but also a very wet period. Will this continue? probability would say no, we could end up with a cool dry summer..

 

I've no idea to be honest. I'll be pleasantly surprised if beats 2013 temperature wise, or is as wet as 2012. I'm keeping an eye on the position of the jet, if by early July it is on a southerly trajectory this won't be a good signal as it often then gets locked in for the rest of the summer, last summer saw the jet do a marked northward turn around end of June and hence we ended up with a very decent July and ok August.

 

Its not until late June you can get a real sense of where summer might be heading, a bit like winter when it isn't until late December you can start predicting with some confidence the general shape of the winter. So a good 6 weeks left, conditions now have very little bearing usually on the summer as a whole, 2012 saw a very warm dry spell at the end of May and look what happened thereafter, May 2013 was plagued by consistently chilly weather and look what happened in July, indeed going back to the infamous summer of 1995, the first half of June was decidedly un-summer like then we saw a major swing around the solstice.

Edited May 13, 2014 by damianslaw