Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Feel GEM in FI is very wrong, cold fans like me sadly fantasy run/model that 12z today

 

ECM 00Z feel is closer, ECM 12Z closer still

[phil nw.]

I am still hopeful that ens means continuing to show a more settled,warmer period from Mid-June will verify.

An Atlantic trough further west and a Euro rather than Azores High seem the likely outcome.

Nothing to change my mind on this.Looks the likely outcome after the thundery plume over the week end.

Edited June 4, 2014 by phil nw.

[Milhouse]

Acceptable early summer weather on the way looking at the models tonight A fair bit of dry weather around and temps in the low 20s. In a lot of the good summers early June wasnt much to right home about so we arent doing too badly. A far cry from the poor outlook about a week ago that got all the doom mongers all excited.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

still looks like turning much cooler/colder from around 14th June, good FI charts for members like me who think hot weather sucks!

[summer blizzard]

After the humidity of the last third of May and first third of June i can't say i'm sad with recent outputs. Dry and (potentially chilly at night) is just what i need.

 

IRA52 - Come August i'll be happy with an Aug 10 repeat.

[cheese]

What humidity?

[harryc]

Never mind what humidity what heat? Some strange inhabitants on Netw

[Captain Shortwave]

still looks like turning much cooler/colder from around 14th June, good FI charts for members like me who think hot weather sucks!

Having looked at the temperatures forecast for your area, I can only say this.

You are the first person ever to call 18-21C hot.

Edited June 8, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[mushymanrob]

What humidity?

 

lol..completely agree.... its been a tad muggy sometimes but its been far from humid (as in warm and humid) on most days. ive hardly broken sweat.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

When did I call 18-21C hot? hate hot weather so 18-21C would be fine, not hot

[draztik]

If we are going to have 'hot' weather, I'd rather it occur in June than in July and August. Nothing worse than heat in the Uk, as it's usually accompanied with muggy conditions. Give me 18-21c in summer and I'm very happy indeed. Anything above that and I'm delving into gfs fi looking for a breakdown tho on a serious note, I don't suspect we will have a summer like last year. My garden at least hopes not.

[Summer Sun]

Well looking at the models today to the 23rd I'd say it looks fairly settled from Wednesday note I say fairly as some patchy rain is possible at times for England and Wales as weak fronts could move across the country at times, NW Scotland looks like it will see the most rain but even here it will be dry at times rainfall totals look fairly low elsewhere.

 

We should see a lot of sunshine for the next few weeks but some cloudier spells are also likely from time to time, temperatures look pleasant for most ranging from the low to mid 20's though slightly cooler in any unsettled periods but these look like they'll be limited

 

North west Scotland could struggle with temperatures struggling to make it into double figures at times during the next few weeks

[MR EXTREMES]

still looks like turning much cooler/colder from around 14th June, good FI charts for members like me who think hot weather sucks!

it looks to be fine and settled 24c in the south of the uk is rather nice warmer and cooler from time to time no heatwave but rather nice right out into fi no cold northerly as we see in winter scandi area will be chiller , once again models did over cook the lower heights to our east and east they will stay.

 

its a progressive build of heights more homegrown in nature but lovely to see.

of coarse there will be areas plagued by low cloud and sea breezes but over all ver settled as we progress through the week we should now see the models starting to agree with each other.

 

the ecm seems to have called this current building of heights well.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It will be interesting to see what the NOAA 8-14 update goes with tonight, as two out of the three main models have not only stuck with the high pressure scenario, but have also placed it further east, into a far more favourable position for warmth/sunshine as well as lack of rain.  We still await the ECMWF run though.  Cloudy anticyclones in summer are usually associated with breezy conditions on the periphery of the high bringing in a steady supply of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and/or the North Sea- if the high sits on top of the country then strong solar heating at this time of year tends to result in skies rapidly clearing inland, with any low cloud tending to become restricted to coastal fringes.

 

Re. heat, I've been on a brief holiday in Norwich and the past three days have had maxima of 23C, 24C and 24C at Norwich Airport according to Weather Underground.  Maybe calling it "hot" is an exaggeration, but it is certainly well above the long-term normal, which for Norwich is probably between 18 and 19C at this stage of the month.

Edited June 9, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[cheese]

Hm - I'm still not happy with output. Looks like the east of the country will be prone to cooler and cloudier weather. Would prefer the high to be centred further south and east.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yeah, it's looking like the ECMWF was nearer the mark on the 9th June with the UKMO/GFS placing the high too far east.  The high should be far east enough to give sun and warmth for central and western Britain but it may well be cool and cloudy at times in the east.

[MP-R]

^^ So perhaps similar conditions to the first week of June last year?

[Thundery wintry showers]

It does look similar to me.  Especially with the high pressure over the NW, I can also foresee north-eastern Britain getting more sunshine overall than south-eastern Britain, like happened in the first week of June last year.

[mushymanrob]

at long last the md thread isnt empty of knowlegable posters this year.

 

for years it seems to have been the preserve of summer fans, whilst the more knowlegable deserted it . so its a real pleasure to see more people then before submitting more in depth posts, thumbs up!

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Mushy, Last summer did well in the Mod thread to, Before that it was like a ghost town during the Summer month's in there.

[knocker]

That's why I've ceased posting Mushy.

Edited June 13, 2014 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Don't stop posting in there Knock, It all ads to discussion.

[Richard2901]

Yet another dire start to summer with above average rainfall, below average sunshine and wind almost exclusively from the easterly half of the compass as it has been pretty much all year 

 

Now into the third consecutive day of disgusting overcast. With little hope of a clearance and more of the same tomorrow this will be the umpteenth revolting grey sunless weekend this year. It really is a sick joke that in this abysmal record-breakingly cyclonic year we finally get high pressure and this is the rubbish it is producing. The next week looks horrible with very little sunshine just lots of cloud to add significantly to the 500-hour summer sunshine deficit since 2007 

 

http://www.niederschlagsradar.de/niederschlagsprognose.aspx?type=4&continent=europa

 

Totally and utterly depressing. This year is worse than 1993 for consistently awful weather. Simply vile 

Edited June 14, 2014 by Richard2901

[Polar Maritime]

Plenty of Summer left yet..

[Frosty_wsm]

Yet another dire start to summer with above average rainfall, below average sunshine and wind almost exclusively from the easterly half of the compass as it has been pretty much all year   Now into the third consecutive day of disgusting overcast. With little hope of a clearance and more of the same tomorrow this will be the umpteenth revolting grey sunless weekend this year. It really is a sick joke that in this abysmal record-breakingly cyclonic year we finally get high pressure and this is the rubbish it is producing. The next week looks horrible with very little sunshine just lots of cloud to add significantly to the 500-hour summer sunshine deficit since 2007   http://www.niederschlagsradar.de/niederschlagsprognose.aspx?type=4&continent=europa Totally and utterly depressing. This year is worse than 1993 for consistently awful weather. Simply vile 

Ever thought of moving then? lol. Beautiful summer weather here and has been for days and days, long may it continue too.