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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014


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Whit week, and upto mid June is nearly always unsettled, and tends to feel more like Autumn, I am not a hot weather fan, but loads of time yet for summer fans weather, after Wimbledon, through to mid Sept, bound to be hot days thrown in, maybe even during Wimbledon

 

.... but 'summer' isnt about sunshine and warmth per se, thats only the backbone. by late august despite any sun/warmth summer is over.

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blimey it's busier in here now than it was last winter and summer hasn't even started yet, anyway at least we still see pleasant warm days in spring and summer, most places didn't even have a flake of sleet last winter or a cold winter's day, wasn't it obvious all this northern blocking would turn up now? maybe mildies should hope for a cold blocked winter then in summer we might get bartletts and spainsh plumes instead of wanting them in winter when its pointless, i don't like hot weather any more but im hoping we don't have northern blocking all summer then come autumn and winter we get another raging PV again, i do believe in the law of averages

Edited by Tony27
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I always like to look at June 2005 for an example of where it can quickly go from hideous looking unsettled charts to a heatwave within the space of a few days. The current output needs a few tweaks then we would be looking at something similar. I would definately take this mornings ECM.

 

I remember the first half of June 2005 was generally cool and unsettled but then around mid month a big change took place and temperatures soared to 34C in London on the 19th.  That heatwave boosted the monthly CET to a warm 15.5C.

Edited by Don
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I remember the first half of June 2005 was generally cool and unsettled but then around mid month a big change took place and temperatures soared to 34C in London on the 19th.  That heatwave boosted the monthly CET to a warm 15.5C.

Yep, I can even remember talks of a ground frost sometime in early June in 2005!! I can only then remember the 19th being an absolute sizzler with tremendous storms hitting the midlands and northeastern parts, then two of the best thundery periods of the decade hitting on the 24th and 28th. What a month that was.
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June 2005 was a really good month in the south with length settled spells and generally brief unsettled spells. The 1st-5th was cool and cloudy with some rain, the 6th-11th was fine, dry, sunny and increasingly warm, the 12th-16th was the only real unsettled period with a northerly followed by a brief onslaught of the Atlantic, then the 17th onwards saw the start of the repeating plume scenario with warm to hot weather until month's close. The only June I can think of in the 2000s that began unsettled then improved is 2003.

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To be fair summers of 2005 and 2003 had more or less the same analogue matches. The years both began as Nino types of year and reversed into neutral or weak Nina. 2010 and 2007 reversed into a Nina too.

 

congrats on you staying, seen the thread, 2 Jan 2001? makes you 13?

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To be fair summers of 2005 and 2003 had more or less the same analogue matches. The years both began as Nino types of year and reversed into neutral or weak Nina. 2010 and 2007 reversed into a Nina too.

 

Sure, I'm just referring to how different they turned out. Equally 2007 and 2010 were quite different with almost a reverse in becoming settled and unsettled.

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I must be honest, apart from Scotland, this coming week doesn't look particularly awful. Most rainfall coming in the form of showers and Thursday now looking like potentially being a dry, cool and sunny day now as a weak ridge of high pressure pushes through.

Posted Image

Close of play on Friday

Posted Image

South could see very little rain this week. 

Next weekend could see a lot of rain in some areas, typical Spanish plume rules apply of course :p

Edited by Captain shortwave
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I think that,s shifted I am sure the worst was north yorkshire/lancashire yesterday.   Remember us was on 47mm.    Our rain totals last month was 110mm  thats 2.5 times our normal rainfall here.   I wonder if summer going to be late by a month.  

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I am still hopeful that ens means continuing to show a more settled,warmer period from Mid-June will verify.

An Atlantic trough further west and a Euro rather than Azores High seem the likely outcome.

Edited by phil nw.
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I am still hopeful that ens means continuing to show a more settled,warmer period from Mid-June will verify.

An Atlantic trough further west and a Euro rather than Azores High seem the likely outcome.

 

this morning everything pointing towards this... a euro high not the azores high bringing heat... fingers crossed.

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this morning everything pointing towards this... a euro high not the azores high bringing heat... fingers crossed.

Yes Mushy although i think based on the latest ens we will see more of a south westerly influence so some decent warmth but further north west could see some cooler,damper interruptions.

At the moment it looks like the main heat will be over the near continent by the end of the week giving the se a glancing blow before the flow turns more into the west.

I thinking more a nw/se split evolving later in week 2-typical of early Summer i suppose but surely better than some of the recent ones-if this pattern verifies of course.

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Yes Mushy although i think based on the latest ens we will see more of a south westerly influence so some decent warmth but further north west could see some cooler,damper interruptions.

At the moment it looks like the main heat will be over the near continent by the end of the week giving the se a glancing blow before the flow turns more into the west.

I thinking more a nw/se split evolving later in week 2-typical of early Summer i suppose but surely better than some of the recent ones-if this pattern verifies of course.

 

i think thats good, the anomaly charts support this, and we would be close to getting a hot spell as as you say, the heat would be close by on the continent. it wouldnt take much of a shift to get some. however a 'normal' spell in june would be most welcome.

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models trended (at least on 00z's) to surely a cooler less settled setup? good trend hopefully for members like me and others that think hot weather sucks!

 

The signals are certainly looking more West based into the outlook.

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what do you mean more west? winds more west from atlantic, or whole setup moved west allowing hot weather

Yes more weather off the Atlantic from the West. Edited by Polar Maritime
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This mornings ECM.... the summer equivalent of "that ECM"

 

Holy hell that would be a prolonged heatwave developing over the whole of central/western Europe with the UK also getting in on the action. 16C 850s or higher from Tuesday all the way until the end of the run in the south east. That would probably bring several consecutive 90F maxima!!!!  :shok:

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WHAAAATTT?.... 

 

post-2797-0-74232700-1401887527_thumb.gi

 

that would roast us in temps c 30c and humid too...whilst im tempted to bin it, thinking its an outlier and will probably be proven to be so, it is also a feasible evolution from the synoptic pattern we expect over the next few days.  i note the latest ecm anomaly supports this, but is on its own.... the gfs doesnt support it ... BUT ... isnt a million miles away from doing so...my monies on something halfway house, not as extreme as this ecm run, but possibly something similar?...nice eye candy anyway! :)

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WHAAAATTT?.... 

 

Posted Imagehot!.gif

 

that would roast us in temps c 30c and humid too...

whilst im tempted to bin it, thinking its an outlier and will probably be proven to be so, it is also a feasible evolution from the synoptic pattern we expect over the next few days.  i note the latest ecm anomaly supports this, but is on its own.... the gfs doesnt support it ... BUT ... isnt a million miles away from doing so...

my monies on something halfway house, not as extreme as this ecm run, but possibly something similar?...

nice eye candy anyway! :)

 

Big outlier, one for the bin I think.

 

Posted Image

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Having a wee dander down the garden path, to have some champers with the ecm! Champers and maybe some humble pie! I've nearly stopped looking at the ecm post day 6/7. Tho as always, people will roll with it no matter what the American models/ecm mean suggest.

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