Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

[SP1986]

Having looked at the models, I have never seen a such prolonged output where the GFS forecasts frequent temperatures below 6C for minima in June.. 4-6C is astonishing. I think June may turn out to be nothing more than a continuation of our mild, wet Winter.

 

Also whilst I speak about it, I haven't seen it so dark approaching June.. I have to put the light on it's so dark.. not sure Ive done that a few weeks before the longest day before.

[SP1986]

Indeed it does, I really think this June has the potential to make June 2012 look like a happy party. But like 2012, it's a self preserving pattern, so the question isn't when will the warmer weather come, but more along the lines of how long will this cool, unsettled spell last? I know that sounds glass half emptyish, but can anyone argue with it.

 

 

Stock up on the Vitamin D3 tablets, and the sandbags I think!

 

I'll stop short of dusting off your sledge .. but only just. 

Edited May 29, 2014 by SP1986

[Tim M]

Still raining. How can the forecasts be so wrong at so close range. Yesterday it said this afternoon onwards would be dry and a little warmer. Wrong. Yesterday Sunday was a good day for dry weather. Now that has changed. And which model said 2 weeks ago June would be the best month of the summer?

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't think the outputs suggest a repeat of June 2012 yet, as while the jet is over the top of the British Isles, we don't have a succession of deep lows streaming in from the Atlantic.  The emphasis for many may well be on thundery downpours rather than persistent frontal rain, though this is far from certain as sometimes these slack lows contain slow-moving frontal systems and/or large amounts of cloud in their circulation (which I recall was a major issue during early July 2012).

[mushymanrob]

I don't think the outputs suggest a repeat of June 2012 yet, as while the jet is over the top of the British Isles, we don't have a succession of deep lows streaming in from the Atlantic.  The emphasis for many may well be on thundery downpours rather than persistent frontal rain, though this is far from certain as sometimes these slack lows contain slow-moving frontal systems and/or large amounts of cloud in their circulation (which I recall was a major issue during early July 2012).

 

i agree that atm the synoptic pattern isnt the same as early june 12.... but it is a repeating pattern of having a low over/near the uk trapped or locked in by two large stubborn areas of high pressure , one to the ne, and the azores high (which many think its great for summer weather... no its not, not unless it displaces and then its not an azores high).ultimately its a wet picture, whether its heavy showers of recent weeks, or more organised frontal rain...  can things change? yes and they will.... but when?... summer starts in 2 days.

[Bradowl]

Very disappointing summer so far with no prolonged fine weather on horizon. 

 

We've not seen any sunshine here since Monday morning and we might have to wait until Sunday before seeing it again. 

 

Glad I've booked my summer holiday for Majorca. 

[Summer Sun]

Very disappointing summer so far with no prolonged fine weather on horizon. 

 

We've not seen any sunshine here since Monday morning and we might have to wait until Sunday before seeing it again. 

 

Glad I've booked my summer holiday for Majorca. 

 

Given its only late May we still have ample time for change we're bound to see some heat at some point even the "poor" summer of 2012 delivered a hot spell was around the time the Olympics was on I seem to remember

Edited May 30, 2014 by Summer Sun

[summer blizzard]

I don't think the outputs suggest a repeat of June 2012 yet, as while the jet is over the top of the British Isles, we don't have a succession of deep lows streaming in from the Atlantic.  The emphasis for many may well be on thundery downpours rather than persistent frontal rain, though this is far from certain as sometimes these slack lows contain slow-moving frontal systems and/or large amounts of cloud in their circulation (which I recall was a major issue during early July 2012).

 

The main difference right now is that we lack the jet strength of 2012 so while the models do pretty much all agree that the Scandinavian High will move to Greenland we can't quite be sure where the mean trough will be.

 

One assumes though that if heights remain high over Greenland then slowly but surely we should expect the degeneration of early summer.

[Frank Trough]

i agree that atm the synoptic pattern isnt the same as early june 12.... but it is a repeating pattern of having a low over/near the uk trapped or locked in by two large stubborn areas of high pressure , one to the ne, and the azores high (which many think its great for summer weather... no its not, not unless it displaces and then its not an azores high).ultimately its a wet picture, whether its heavy showers of recent weeks, or more organised frontal rain...  can things change? yes and they will.... but when?... summer starts in 2 days.

 

After last winter the "writing off a whole season before it starts" seems to have gained a bit more traction. It's perfectly plausible of course but it's also spectacularly wrong on more occasions. No better example than last year - last May you wrote off summer, Shedhead said it would be like 2010 and SP1986 said it would be the same as 2012.

 

I know you'll all be desperate to say "I told you so" when we've all drowned by the end of August but please let's at least let a bit of summer actually happen before we do.

 

and who knows! maybe the 06z is right! yes, some rain to get through but it does at least show how even that pattern can evolve more favourably (it's not massively different to the ECM in the latter part).

 

I'm a summer weather fan I make no bones about that and i'm not prepared to throw in the towel in May!!!! Sadly I am almost always wrong.......

Edited May 30, 2014 by New Forest Gump

[Bobby]

A pattern like 2012 or not if the current modelling for June continues through the month we're looking at another 2007/2008/2012 style washout for sure! You'd get good odds on writing off the first half of the month as things stand but that's just 2/13 weeks of summer 2014. I hope we don't get stuck in another post-2006 summer rut though, it's been happening a lot since then.

Edited May 30, 2014 by Bobby

[The PIT]

Too early to write off summer but after this weekend it looks like almost a repeat performance of the last few weeks weather. Low pressure sinking south to the west and then swinging back round again. So another wet spell on the way.

[stainesbloke]

Certainly too early to write off Summer, let alone June. I don't think anyone is seriously suggesting that. However, the model output isn't cheerful, it's the same old story of troughing sat over us giving cold, wet, grey and windy conditions that seem to be the default weather settings theses days. The 'beauty' of our climate is in it's supposed variety or changeability. Not much variety on offer that I can see, would of course be happy to be proved wrong.

[mushymanrob]

After last winter the "writing off a whole season before it starts" seems to have gained a bit more traction. It's perfectly plausible of course but it's also spectacularly wrong on more occasions. No better example than last year - last May you wrote off summer, Shedhead said it would be like 2010 and SP1986 said it would be the same as 2012.

 

I know you'll all be desperate to say "I told you so" when we've all drowned by the end of August but please let's at least let a bit of summer actually happen before we do.

 

and who knows! maybe the 06z is right! yes, some rain to get through but it does at least show how even that pattern can evolve more favourably (it's not massively different to the ECM in the latter part).

 

I'm a summer weather fan I make no bones about that and i'm not prepared to throw in the towel in May!!!! Sadly I am almost always wrong.......

 

ay ... but ive not seen anyone writing off summer.many make the point that its daft to write off summer at the end of may..... i make the point that its equally as daft to say 'you cant write off summer' , because on several recent occassions to do so would be correct. wet summers are the form horse, with northern blocking over greenland... now atm its not there but as has been said all models expect the scandi/northern high to drift there and set up residence for the summer.im not writing off summer, but if i had to chose what type of summer we will get taking into account recent summer patterns and comparing them with the current ones.... its not looking good. so i think its looking like we will get a washout summer, with periods of better drier weather, which will last well into july at least.cynics could point out im in a no lose situation, im calling it correct if it is a wet 'un, whilst no one would be happier then me if im wrong and i get a warm sunny dry one!.  but seriously, i cant atm see anything to get optimistic about. the emerging pattern we are getting now is too similar to 07,08,12,  who would bet against at least june/july being wet?

 

ps... last may i wrote off summer... did i? possibly i cant remember, but june was nothing special and august was dreadful, loads of rain. so apart from some great days in july, for me here, 13 wasnt in the same league as 75,76,83,91,95, and others

Edited May 30, 2014 by mushymanrob

[Frank Trough]

ay ... but ive not seen anyone writing off summer.many make the point that its daft to write off summer at the end of may..... i make the point that its equally as daft to say 'you cant write off summer' , because on several recent occassions to do so would be correct. wet summers are the form horse, with northern blocking over greenland... now atm its not there but as has been said all models expect the scandi/northern high to drift there and set up residence for the summer.im not writing off summer, but if i had to chose what type of summer we will get taking into account recent summer patterns and comparing them with the current ones.... its not looking good. so i think its looking like we will get a washout summer, with periods of better drier weather, which will last well into july at least.cynics could point out im in a no lose situation, im calling it correct if it is a wet 'un, whilst no one would be happier then me if im wrong and i get a warm sunny dry one!.  but seriously, i cant atm see anything to get optimistic about. the emerging pattern we are getting now is too similar to 07,08,12,  who would bet against at least june/july being wet?

 

ps... last may i wrote off summer... did i? possibly i cant remember, but june was nothing special and august was dreadful, loads of rain. so apart from some great days in july, for me here, 13 wasnt in the same league as 75,76,83,91,95, and others

 

Ah, but you need to factor in to the equation that I am on holiday for two weeks (in the Caribbean - there will probably be a hurricane) at the end of June so they are bound to be the warmest, most settled of the summer!

 

Phrases like "washout summer" and "northern blocking....setting up residence for the summer" are basically a surrogate for "summer is over". Don't care what anybody says.

 

I desperately want you to be wrong.....but if you're right (and let's face it, there's as good a chance as any) i'll eat humble pie and dance naked on Netweather!  

 

P.S. summer 2013 was brilliant from mid june until the end of August in Bournemouth.....where the sun used to always shine!

[Alex]

ay ... but ive not seen anyone writing off summer.many make the point that its daft to write off summer at the end of may..... i make the point that its equally as daft to say 'you cant write off summer' , because on several recent occassions to do so would be correct. wet summers are the form horse, with northern blocking over greenland... now atm its not there but as has been said all models expect the scandi/northern high to drift there and set up residence for the summer.im not writing off summer, but if i had to chose what type of summer we will get taking into account recent summer patterns and comparing them with the current ones.... its not looking good. so i think its looking like we will get a washout summer, with periods of better drier weather, which will last well into july at least.cynics could point out im in a no lose situation, im calling it correct if it is a wet 'un, whilst no one would be happier then me if im wrong and i get a warm sunny dry one!. but seriously, i cant atm see anything to get optimistic about. the emerging pattern we are getting now is too similar to 07,08,12, who would bet against at least june/july being wet?ps... last may i wrote off summer... did i? possibly i cant remember, but june was nothing special and august was dreadful, loads of rain. so apart from some great days in july, for me here, 13 wasnt in the same league as 75,76,83,91,95, and others

You may be right or maybe wrong. One thing to consider though is that 2007 started good - people forget that the first 14/15 days were mostly dry and warm/sunny. It went downhill thereafter.2008 had a brief nice period midmonth during June. Generally June wasn't awful, it was showery and changeable rather than the washout 2nd half of June 2007.June 2009 was mixed but generally dry with that nationwide heatwave at the end of the month. June 2010 was dry with a warm start and end, midmonth was cool and dry with a scandi trough.June 2011 started pretty good for first 5 days then went downhill. The end of the month brought a temporary heatwave to the southeast.June 2012 was awful from start to end, there was probably 2/3 fine days.June 2013 was rather cool but dry.Therefore when I look at it, preferred weather if it isn't hot/sunny would be cool/dry as that seems to be a good trigger to move into a decent spell of weather. Nothing scientific about that trend probably pure coincidence. The worry for me is that there is far too much northern blocking going on and we need a trigger to lower heights to the north. The triggers at this time of the year are things like positive angular momentum and a phase 1 MJO during June is preferred.P.s summer 2013 was immense! June wasn't great but July was hot and sunny and August was generally warm and sunny with a lot of evening thunderstorms. Edited May 30, 2014 by Alex

[Polar Maritime]

 

I desperately want you to be wrong.....but if you're right (and let's face it, there's as good a chance as any) i'll eat humble pie and dance naked on Netweather!  

 

 

 

Cant wait !

[Mokidugway]

Don't get to depressed the sunshines only a short cheap flight away , in 2012 I went abroad 3 times in the poor summer months !!!....

[Captain Shortwave]

I think people are being far too hasty about writing off the next couple of weeks. I feel (though I might be wrong) that many people are looking at some of the charts and assuming some will verify only on the basis that we have had quite a few really poor summers over the past 7 years.

Ironically a Greenland high might actually help out here if we can release the jet north eastwards into Scandi/Russian ridge. The GFS whilst it builds the high actually brings much better weather to our shores.

[summer blizzard]

I think people are being far too hasty about writing off the next couple of weeks. I feel (though I might be wrong) that many people are looking at some of the charts and assuming some will verify only on the basis that we have had quite a few really poor summers over the past 7 years.Ironically a Greenland high might actually help out here if we can release the jet north eastwards into Scandi/Russian ridge. The GFS whilst it builds the high actually brings much better weather to our shores.

There's certainly the possibility of something transient but that's not a sustainable pattern for warmth.The lack of jet strength is the only thing saving us right now from what is a very bad NH pattern for early June.Of course discussing July onward is somewhat silly however but the omen is not good.

[mushymanrob]

I think people are being far too hasty about writing off the next couple of weeks. I feel (though I might be wrong) that many people are looking at some of the charts and assuming some will verify only on the basis that we have had quite a few really poor summers over the past 7 years.

Ironically a Greenland high might actually help out here if we can release the jet north eastwards into Scandi/Russian ridge. The GFS whilst it builds the high actually brings much better weather to our shores.

 

well the ever reliable anomaly charts dont suggest anything much other then troughing over or near the uk out to 14 days... so 'writing off the next couple of weeks' is id suggest, a fairly safe bet. (but im not saying its wet every day... )

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Whit week, and upto mid June is nearly always unsettled, and tends to feel more like Autumn, I am not a hot weather fan, but loads of time yet for summer fans weather, after Wimbledon, through to mid Sept, bound to be hot days thrown in, maybe even during Wimbledon

[Milhouse]

I always like to look at June 2005 for an example of where it can quickly go from hideous looking unsettled charts to a heatwave within the space of a few days. The current output needs a few tweaks then we would be looking at something similar. I would definately take this mornings ECM.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I can see why some are feeling despondent about June and possibly beyond, because when June starts off with blocked patterns, in most cases we get the "return of the westerlies" later in the month, as the Azores High strengthens and the jet stream running over the top also strengthens, giving enhanced westerlies, and if the highs to the SW and NE and jet over the British Isles remain in place, then the logical evolution takes us into a pattern similar to mid to late June 2007 or even June 2012.  

 

However, the "return of the westerlies" often also features a change in the pattern of the jet stream, and for instance the ECMWF ensemble mean outputs this morning reminded me a bit of the setup that we had for much of June 2003, with a strong Atlantic trough but relatively high pressure over Europe giving a changeable but rather warm south to south-westerly type.

[SP1986]

The GFS minimum temperature forecasts even 24 hours out have been diabolical, almost embarrasing in some cases. Minimas now for the last 4 days have been above 10C (as you would expect at this time of year around the coast), yet the GFS has been calling for 4-6C minimas in some cases.. 

 

Makes you question some of the Maximas it's predicting on Wednesday (ie 9-10C)

[mushymanrob]

Ah, but you need to factor in to the equation that I am on holiday for two weeks (in the Caribbean - there will probably be a hurricane) at the end of June so they are bound to be the warmest, most settled of the summer!

 

Phrases like "washout summer" and "northern blocking....setting up residence for the summer" are basically a surrogate for "summer is over". Don't care what anybody says.

 

I desperately want you to be wrong.....but if you're right (and let's face it, there's as good a chance as any) i'll eat humble pie and dance naked on Netweather!  

 

P.S. summer 2013 was brilliant from mid june until the end of August in Bournemouth.....where the sun used to always shine!

 

dont get me wrong, im not predicting as a fact a washout summer, im just rather concerned that the current outlook is one that could last like previous washout summers. as i see it, anyone who thinks we are in for a washout summer is as vallied as an opinion that says 'theres plenty of time yet'. either could be correct.however, there is a part of me that holds on to hope, possibly fuelled by the gfs's default into fi that always brings a heatwave! i suppose im hoping the gfs is on to something ... plus atm the synoptic pattern isnt the same as 07,08,12, im holding on to the hope that that huge scandinavian/northern high might just retrogress and sink south.