Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

[summer blizzard]

that was me... thats what the news 24 met guy said. hes said it again this morning. he was basing his views on what the data is saying.  it might change, there might be 3 weeks of summer left, but we can get a pretty good idea of the general synoptic pattern, and all the indicators show that theres likely to be an upper trough close to our north/northeast that will be the driver of our weather for the next two weeks.now whilst that leaves 1 week for something decent, things would have to change, the pattern, and that should be seen first in the anomaly charts. there are currently no signes of any serious settling down, although that doesnt mean we wont get a few nice days, it just means that theres no spell of settled weather other then in hopefuls heads!

Its a surprise if he did but their long range forecasts are based from the Euro 32 day so if successive runs are abandoning summer then that's what he could be basing his claim from.

[mushymanrob]

Its a surprise if he did but their long range forecasts are based from the Euro 32 day so if successive runs are abandoning summer then that's what he could be basing his claim from.

 

it was chris fawks... the presenters yesterday challenged him on his 'autumnal' description and he went on to say that theres no signes of a return to the warm dry sunny weather we have recently enjoyed, making referrance to the run of months with above average temps suggesting that august might not follow suit.  i see he has moderated his language in recent broadcasts this morning, it appears that he too cant claim 'summers over' lol.he must be reasonably confident then in the euro 32 day-er or whatever he based his claims on.

[Polar Maritime]

It appears that he too cant claim 'summers over' lol. 

 

And probably for good reasons to! 

Edited August 10, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[mushymanrob]

And probably for good reasons to! 

 

.... we shall see!

[TonyH]

YOURE the one that laughed at that claim! , if youd just accepted it like most others as an opinion and not tried to belittle it there would be no argument. and it wasnt just a 76 style summer... it was any long hot summer so stop trying to highlight the most extreme summer weve had.

 

 

 

 

and its ironic that your first line contradicts your second!

Why? That is/ was a recognised meteorological term I believe, the extended Summer period, quite a useful term.

[TonyH]

Mays average temps aren't much higher than October so I definitely wouldn't call that extended summer as snow isn't unheard of in the north just like I wouldn't call November part of the extended winter as its still too mild, September you maybe right but the long nights and potentially foggy mornings don't feel like summer to me more like early autumn.

May to September are the warmest 5 months of the year on average, likewise November to March is the Extended Winter period

Edited August 10, 2014 by TonyH

[mushymanrob]

Why? That is/ was a recognised meteorological term I believe, the extended Summer period, quite a useful term.

so is this weather extended autumn? or was winter extended in 1975 until june when it snowed?. now if we go into september with a continuation of a warm sunny spell i guess thatll fit. but meterologically september is autumn. and that season has within it summer like and winter like spells. seasons are more then weather types.

[TonyH]

Look its just a term I used to hear used by the MO in days of yore

[TonyH]

so is this weather extended autumn? or was winter extended in 1975 until june when it snowed?.now if we go into september with a continuation of a warm sunny spell i guess thatll fit. but meterologically september is autumn. and that season has within it summer like and winter like spells. seasons are more then weather types.

It goes on the monthly averages as stated above.

[knocker]

I was always under the impression that extended summers into the Autumn were Indian summers. This inevitable leads to the question, which is manna from heaven to quiz geeks, "When was the October temperature record (29.4C) set in March?"

[AderynCoch]

1985 of course. Though it's no longer the record...

 

I'm familiar with the term "extended summer" to refer to May-September, less so with "extended winter" to refer to November-March (but the latter definition can be inferred from the former). I don't really think of autumn and spring in the same way, because they're basically transitional between the two extremes of summer and winter.

[mushymanrob]

1985 of course. Though it's no longer the record... I'm familiar with the term "extended summer" to refer to May-September, less so with "extended winter" to refer to November-March (but the latter definition can be inferred from the former). I don't really think of autumn and spring in the same way, because they're basically transitional between the two extremes of summer and winter.

strange, id have thought that spring and autumn are more likely to be extended because we dont always get very summery or wintry weather. regardless, i maintain that seasons are all varied and are not solely defined by any one weather type or shouldnt bebut surely all this is off topic.

[Polar Maritime]

But surely all this is off topic.

 

Yep 

Edited August 10, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[TonyH]

1985 of course. Though it's no longer the record... I'm familiar with the term "extended summer" to refer to May-September, less so with "extended winter" to refer to November-March (but the latter definition can be inferred from the former). I don't really think of autumn and spring in the same way, because th ey're basically transitional between the two extremes of summer and winter.

At last someone who has heard of it thought I had dreamt it!

[TonyH]

Yep 

An interesting discourse in a banter thread I would say!

[Tony27]

1985 of course. Though it's no longer the record...

 

I'm familiar with the term "extended summer" to refer to May-September, less so with "extended winter" to refer to November-March (but the latter definition can be inferred from the former). I don't really think of autumn and spring in the same way, because they're basically transitional between the two extremes of summer and winter.

agree, i often see summer like weather in may and september say temps of 21-25c, i rarely see snow in November and March though, some will argue that it's too cool in the evenings in may and september to enjoy the weather, but i could argue it's sometimes too warm for snow to settle during the middle of the day in november and march, and even in the winter months sometimes

Edited August 10, 2014 by Tony27

[mushymanrob]

agree, i often see summer like weather in may and september say temps of 21-25c, i rarely see snow in November and March though, some will argue that it's too cool in the evenings in may and september to enjoy the weather, but i could argue it's sometimes too warm for snow to settle during the middle of the day in november and march, and even in the winter months sometimes

 

horrah! we can agree on something!

[mushymanrob]

At last someone who has heard of it thought I had dreamt it!

 

to be honest... i too have heard it, although im not certain of which context it was said and im not sure of whether its a proper meterological term and does beg the questions, what does it mean, doesnt it apply to other seasons, what does it exactly refer too ? etc. no one has doubted that you get unseasonal conditions outside the seasons, but surely whilst a warm sunny spell in september can be described as 'an extended summer' it only referres to the weather type, it doesnt alter the fact that september is autumn and within that whole season it has summer elements early on and wintry elements later on.

 

ill never except september as summer, as taking everything into account (nature, daylength etc) its more autumn then summer, despite any (pretty uncommon) 'hot' spells.

[BlueHedgehog074]

We like to be flexible in here, but let's try keep the moans/banter etc in here a bit more model related please. As some of the other hosts/mods have said in the past, some of these posts could do belonging in the general Summer threads really. Thanks all.

[phil nw.]

A lot cooler feel to the air now after the visit of ex-Bertha veered the winds to the nw.

It looks like this setup will persist with a  Scandinavian upper trough ruling the roost for a week or so at least.

Some chilly nights to come too especially further north.

Oh for one last visit from the Azores high for a nice BH to end Summer.

Edited August 11, 2014 by phil nw.

[h2005__uk__]

Oh for one last visit from the Azores high for a nice BH to end Summer.

 

I'd have thought this could happen and it surely wouldn't take much as it's still August. The near future doesn't look great on the models, but I don't think anything can be set in stone  for the rest of the month - especially when Bertha's still having an effect.

[knocker]

Well out in Mystic Meg country GEFS is going for one more throw of the dice building the Greenland then Azores high. Not for the other thread as of yet no support.

 

 

Edited August 11, 2014 by knocker

[phil nw.]

I'd have thought this could happen and it surely wouldn't take much as it's still August. The near future doesn't look great on the models, but I don't think anything can be set in stone  for the rest of the month - especially when Bertha's still having an effect.

 

 

Well out in Mystic Meg country GEFS is going for one more throw of the dice building the Greenland then Azores high. Not for the other thread as of yet no support.

Yes chaps here's hoping hence it's in here.

Some hints of late Summer warmth returning at the far end of the GEfs-but as you quite rightly said Knocker not yet strong enough for serious discussion.

[h2005__uk__]

Seems like it could be an interesting few weeks for the models as we head nearer September. Were the models similarly interesting this time last year? (I wasn't following this forum then!)

[mushymanrob]

models have taken a turn for the worse (for sun/heat) with no sign of anything developing. in fact once bethas low has gone, it get replaced next weel. the noaa anomaly charts look positively cool to see the summer all but out.