Jump to content

Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014


Recommended Posts

No problem with people having a moan or ramp in here that's what this thread is for but they should reflect model outputs.

 

John and Polar M are just making the point about how far ahead one can reasonably look.

Writing off a whole month for instance is really guesswork bearing in mind that the daily runs don.t go beyond 16 days ala GFS.

 

What i am suggesting is have a good moan about the charts if you want but try and keep it real wrt timescales.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 930
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Yes Mushy that is what you said "Summers Over" Nothing qualifies the phrase... The same applies for Winter.

 

This is the last I shall be commenting on the subject, As it's pretty clear.

 

Many thanks, PM

 

...but i did qualify the phrase mate... i know summers not over for another 27 days, i was referring to hot spells as outlined above and said as much.

 

 

I stand by what I said mushy-it was not a jibe, a comment that I feel is correct, and yes I will be making similar comments if folk write off winter at what to me are silly time scales and with little meteorology to back their comment up.

Not sure why if I make a comment I am 'jumping down your throat'

Equally I made reference to what some folk were saying about July and summer in late June. Only to be proved wrong by the actual weather of June=one of the warmest in many years for most areas-not all of course.

 

but john, im not writing off summer per se, my post above clarifies all that.  can i ask, do you think realistically that theres any sign of another 'mushy hot spell' (i call it that now to prevent going through the criteria again) ? i know we cannot be 100%, but isnt this forum for making more unscientific posts? moans, ramps, etc. im a life long lover of the weather, it governs my life, and although im no technical wizz kid who pretends to even get a rudimentary grip on the deeper aspects, i have spotted trends over the years. of course this isnt meterologically sound or scientific, but doesnt experience count for nothing in a forum like this? my thoughts ARE based on the model outputs and seeing as they appear to be shifting away from a synoptic pattern that could lead to a hot evolution, i dont think that saying we wont get another widespread hot spell this summer is really that far off!

 

No problem with people having a moan or ramp in here that's what this thread is for but they should reflect model outputs.

 

John and Polar M are just making the point about how far ahead one can reasonably look.

Writing off a whole month for instance is really guesswork bearing in mind that the daily runs don.t go beyond 16 days ala GFS.

 

What i am suggesting is have a good moan about the charts if you want but try and keep it real wrt timescales.

 

16 days (ahead)  = 4 days(todays date)  = 20 days, thats only 10 left (of summer) where a phantom hot spell might emerge ASSUMING the current outputs are pretty accurate. is that really unreasonable to suggest that theres no time left for another shot at widespread heat?

i accept i might be wrong, (i hope so!)  but i am sincere in this. it might be seen as rather wild, outlandish thoughts, but i can give an account of why i make such claims and im happy to stand by them.  surely we have differing ways of weather watching, isnt there room for all trains of thought here?

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Or not. I mean, yes... its a possibility, naturally. But why folk are at pains to point out the obvious time and time over .....We live in Britain. We are not some Isle of endless HP and warmth. Sooner or later we need to get real.

Whilst you post some good charts, I would love to see your analysis when warm and dry weather is expected. Some just seem to disappear when that is due then a load come back when wet/cool is due then it just looks like you are all celebrating it!
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

I accept i might be wrong, (i hope so!)  but i am sincere in this. it might be seen as rather wild, outlandish thoughts, but i can give an account of why i make such claims and im happy to stand by them.  surely we have differing ways of weather watching, isnt there room for all trains of thought here?

 

Maybe the Summer Thread is more suited for other thoughts that aren't Model related.

Edited by Polar Maritime
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at everything at the moment it looks to me like we could see some problematic rain over next week. Think test match at Manchester will be a total washout. And also cricket festival at scarborough won't fair much better. Next 10 days looks pretty dam bleak.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe the Summer Thread is more suited for other thoughts that aren't Model related.

 

fair point, i suppose its a case of how model related they have to be to qualify... as i do take on board current model outputs, especially the anomaly charts.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Am currently in Co. Kerry in Ireland with the kids having arrived in Ireland on the Holyhead Dublin ferry yesterday and today has been a lovely lovely day.Now the travel back hasn't booked yet with either friday night or saturday night sailings being on the cards.Am i right in thinking, though things can change, at the moment I'd be wiser looking at the firday night sailing as it could be a bit blowy on saturday night?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Not exactly model related but could this storm cause a tidal surge again? With this weekend into next week been spring tides. Thankyou in advance.

 

Meteociel have recently added sea state modelling - keep an eye on it as (pardon the pun) it is all rather vague until exact track is firmed up on.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nww3_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2&carte=0&archive=0

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

anyway... summers nearly over ( :p)

 

ill soon be away as ive not stomach for the cold nonsense that will soon dominate this place.

It's a shame, since sometimes someone expressing a contradictory viewpoint can help the quality of discussion by providing some semblance of balance.  (Despite being a fan of more cold weather types than mild ones in winter, the extent of cold bias gets to me sometimes as well).

  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites

It's a shame, since sometimes someone expressing a contradictory viewpoint can help the quality of discussion by providing some semblance of balance.  (Despite being a fan of more cold weather types than mild ones in winter, the extent of cold bias gets to me sometimes as well).

 

appreciate that, cheers.but its a fruitless task. you cannot question the cold weather gods, their devoted sychophants wont allow it. its bad enough here atm having to justify repeatedly viewpoints held without having to reason with the snow army.

  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites

It would be good to have some support from you two. I expect at times to be a lone voice asking for explanations in terms of meteorology and no doubt to be howled down as is often the case. To be jumped on by the followers of certain posters, and we all know who they are, never actually breaking NW rules but continually riding close to the edge.

  • Like 9
Link to post
Share on other sites

It really is unfortunate that just as Bertha begins her trip back across the Atlantic the jet stream has moved south into France giving her a free ride to the British Isles.

 

Hey ho. As I look out of my window right now, it's (another) glorious sunny day here and there's plenty of summer left after the weekend.

Link to post
Share on other sites

It would be good to have some support from you two. I expect at times to be a lone voice asking for explanations in terms of meteorology and no doubt to be howled down as is often the case. To be jumped on by the followers of certain posters, and we all know who they are, never actually breaking NW rules but continually riding close to the edge.

 

For what it's worth (which isn't much) I agree with your sentiments one hundred percent.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

It would be good to have some support from you two. I expect at times to be a lone voice asking for explanations in terms of meteorology and no doubt to be howled down as is often the case. To be jumped on by the followers of certain posters, and we all know who they are, never actually breaking NW rules but continually riding close to the edge.

 

I find myself wanting to shout out "why has that man no clothes" - trouble is, when the ramped weather disappears from the charts so does the 'emperor'.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

I find myself wanting to shout out "why has that man no clothes" - trouble is, when the ramped weather disappears from the charts so does the 'emperor'.

 

I like that last comment-I wonder who you mean?  !!

Link to post
Share on other sites

It would be good to have some support from you two. I expect at times to be a lone voice asking for explanations in terms of meteorology and no doubt to be howled down as is often the case. To be jumped on by the followers of certain posters, and we all know who they are, never actually breaking NW rules but continually riding close to the edge.

 

ill see how the mood takes me. last october as soon as decent posters started going on about what 'we' want, i just couldnt be bothered and left and apart from raising my head once in feb, didnt really come 'back' until may. this summers been good in the md thread, several posters have posted great unbiased detailed posts throughout which after all these years has made the md thread a much more pleasurable read. i couldnt add anything, unlike perhaps other summers when it was less populated so havnt posted much in there.viewing todays outputs and seeing the anomalies moving towards an atlantic high and scandinavian low, my punt on no more 'hot' weather still looks sound! lol :p

I find myself wanting to shout out "why has that man no clothes" - trouble is, when the ramped weather disappears from the charts so does the 'emperor'.

 

for some reason i dont appear to be able to 'like' up that comment, but i wholelheartedly agree with it! :)

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

good afternoon all, well with a spell of wetter weather comming up, i was just wondering when this flaming hot August is going to start, got all exctited at the prospect of some very hot weather and poss thunderstorms, but here we are 5 days in, and the 16 day weather outlook forecast not even hinting at anything besides average, which takes us to the 21st, thats not alot of the month left.  what could the people who came out with these forecasts possibly have seen to say it would be hot

Link to post
Share on other sites

good afternoon all, well with a spell of wetter weather comming up, i was just wondering when this flaming hot August is going to start, got all exctited at the prospect of some very hot weather and poss thunderstorms, but here we are 5 days in, and the 16 day weather outlook forecast not even hinting at anything besides average, which takes us to the 21st, thats not alot of the month left.  what could the people who came out with these forecasts possibly have seen to say it would be hot

 

i didnt see any forecasts for a hot august, or were you making referrance to the members here who was expecting a 'rinse and repeat' ? well unfortunately, that looks like being a misplaced expectation.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Aside from the Express drivel, the only reference I've seen to any heat on the horizon was some of the models which were/are hinting at some warmth after Bertha has been dealt with.

 

I think it's getting late in the day for any prolonged hot spells for the remainder of the summer, but there's surely the chance of a few more very hot days? Even September sometimes has them. Hopefully the models will reveal more post-Bertha.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

i didnt see any forecasts for a hot august, or were you making referrance to the members here who was expecting a 'rinse and repeat' ? well unfortunately, that looks like being a misplaced expectation.

August to be hottest on record, a quote from Piers Corbyn,[ weather action],  backed up by Jonathan Powell [ vantage weather services], both of which i have never heard of, and i guess for a reason that there forecasts are rubbish, lol

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...