Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

[cheeky_monkey]

Well yet another very wet run out into fi from the gfs 12z this is the 6th run in a row now on this. Think it is either going to drop the idea or other models will follow in the days ahead.

This mornings runs looks exactly how I saw it yesterday esp for the south relatively dry and still very warm at times with HP becoming more and more dominant countrywide as August progresses...maybe you cancelled your trip too early?

[Iceaxecrampon]

We are in Dorset on Wednesday.......

 

 

And St Ives on Monday.....

 

 

 

Ian

Edited August 1, 2014 by Iceaxecrampon

[Wynn D Woo]

I have a week off work and yes the weather turns carp....

 

Any drought affect countries that want to pay me to visit them?, Windswept - bringer of rain!!!

[mushymanrob]

That is not to decide that August is a write off. Think back to late June and what some folk suggested for July and how that month has turned out for many areas-not quite the same was it?

 

 

now now john, show me a forecaster who has never got it wrong and ill show you a liar!i dont recall you pulling up gp the other summer when he called that summer wrong, predictions can only be made with current data, plus recent history is sometimes relevant too.

Edited August 1, 2014 by mushymanrob

[TonyH]

We are in Dorset on Wednesday.......

 

 

 

And St Ives on Monday.....

 

 

 

 

Ian

Yeah but rainfall modelling is notoriously inaccurate especially at that range!

Edited August 1, 2014 by TonyH

[Iceaxecrampon]

Yeah but rainfall modelling is notoriously inaccurate especially at that range!

 

.......thanks for the reassurance  H - you have to start looking (panicking) somewhere though - the nice self catering apartments near St Ives are ludicrously expensive this year  - I have been iffing that they should've been booked in July.

 

Should've  - Wouldv'e

 

Ian

 

(edit: Also its a bl&&dy long drive down to get wet)

Edited August 1, 2014 by Iceaxecrampon

[knocker]

Yeah but rainfall modelling is notoriously inaccurate especially at that range!

 

I normally find it's best left until after the event. Anyway enter Bertha stage left. Does wonders for the jet stream. No, I haven't turned into a one chart wonder.

[Milhouse]

We may not have had a long lasting hot and sunny spell. But the sign of a good summer is that we are just coming out of a fine spell and theres another decent week just round the corner after an unsettled few days. Sunday looking drier and still warm for much of England and Wales.

[Scorcher]

I wouldn't worry Scott, number one it's 8 days away, and number two it's the pub run. Very unlikely to come off.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Thursdays 12z for Swanage and Purbeck (Studland Beach)

 

 

you couldn't really make it up.........

 

 

Ian

[terrier]

Well looking at the models it looks like I made right decision to cancel my trip to scarborough cricket festival 9th August onwards. Think this could be first time it's ever been a washout. Atlantic certainly looks like firing the lows into the uk for the foreseeable future.

[Evening thunder]

Forget the Med, head to the Baltic for sea temps well into the 20's, and temps on land approacing the low 30's. 

 

Lapland forecast to be 31C the day after tomorrow: http://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/, as this persistent blocking high pattern continues to pump the heat and warmth over them.

 

Even during our very warm/hot spell Scandinavia was beating us, and their summer is kind of blowing ours out of the water. Feels kind of deflating to get the best we have managed to be beaten bettered by at least parts of every single mainland European country at that time

 

On the other hand our summer certainly aint been bad (and perhaps more comfortable), and in some other years we would probably have a better summer than them.

 

Not really a model moan but not sure where to put this.

Edited August 2, 2014 by Evening thunder

[MP-R]

I think you're justified putting that in here Evening Thunder - I would be moaning at that for sure. Baltic states getting temperatures that high and we get diddly squat... not anything to cheer about. Just goes to show how annoying our location is and how stubborn the Atlantic is in western Europe.

[AderynCoch]

I agree with the sentiment. It's been a decent summer so far (certainly miles better than 2007-12) but still not quite "there". The brunt of the warmth has been just too far east, and now the encroaching Atlantic is trying to scupper a good August.

Edited August 3, 2014 by AderynCoch

[cheese]

Looks good to me.. temps in the low 20s generally with some sunshine (today and tomorrow looking very sunny in fact). Can't complain. Well, I could complain, because it could be warmer, but whatever - that's not important. Getting out and about is my primary concern, and the weather looks good for that.

 

Re: Baltic and Scandinavian temps - they're on a much larger landmass. Not unusual for them to be way warmer than us. The Baltic Sea is also very shallow so warms up quickly and doesn't moderate their temperatures to the same extent. Our time will come again.

Edited August 3, 2014 by cheese

[terrier]

Looking at the gfs ECM and ukmo it's looking like it is going to turn very rough over the next few weeks heavy rain and servere coastal gales about sums it up. Thank goodness I've cancelled my holiday to scarborough w/c 8th August

[mushymanrob]

Looking at the gfs ECM and ukmo it's looking like it is going to turn very rough over the next few weeks heavy rain and servere coastal gales about sums it up. Thank goodness I've cancelled my holiday to scarborough w/c 8th August

 

think youre over reacting sir.... and are painting a pretty bleak picture when not only is it too far off to be certain, its unlikely to be as bad as that all week!

[Mr Frost]

Time for a moan!

So frustrating that we are always on the edge of having a fantastic Summer (prolonged heat and amazing thunderstorms) or sustained Winter cold with loads of snow!

Just to the east of us they are baking in hot temperatures and sunshine and have been for weeks on end, check out Scandinavia for example . (I know the South east of England has done well so far but not as sustained or hot as the above)

Winter it is the same old story, just to our east they are getting all the cold and snow! Really grinds my gears, always so close...yet so far.

The British climate is incredibly tedious and boring. Thank god I am only a couple of hours drive from the Highlands, especially during dismal lowland Winters like 2013/14. It is my only saving grace.

[Polar Maritime]

think youre over reacting sir.... and are painting a pretty bleak picture when not only is it too far off to be certain, its unlikely to be as bad as that all week!

 

But you can not disagree the Models do look pretty bleak over the next few weeks for UK outdoor Holidaying... Whether they materialise is open to question, As ever.

[stainesbloke]

So what if Scandanavia are having a hot spell? Didn't they have a long unseasonal cold spell earlier in Summer? My friends living in Oslo were reporting max temps of 10C for a couple of weeks! And we've had a great summer so far. Warm and lots of sunshine with a few storms thrown in. If Aug goes down the pan I'll be very annoyed but so far....so good!

[SLAMMER]

Time for a moan!So frustrating that we are always on the edge of having a fantastic Summer (prolonged heat and amazing thunderstorms) or sustained Winter cold with loads of snow!Just to the east of us they are baking in hot temperatures and sunshine and have been for weeks on end, check out Scandinavia for example . (I know the South east of England has done well so far but not as sustained or hot as the above)Winter it is the same old story, just to our east they are getting all the cold and snow! Really grinds my gears, always so close...yet so far.The British climate is incredibly tedious and boring. Thank god I am only a couple of hours drive from the Highlands, especially during dismal lowland Winters like 2013/14. It is my only saving grace.

The Highlands are in Britain.

[Captain Shortwave]

The Highlands are in Britain.

I think the poster in question is referring to getting up to higher levels where snow was very prevalent. The Scottish highlands had a very good winter season as all the rain we experienced at low levels fell as snow up there.

 

As for the outlook, it's really not that bad. Any precipitation forecasts might be a little over done and I suspect higher total will be caused by localised heavy downpours as opposed to widespread heavy rain. It still looks warm too.

Edited August 3, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[johnholmes]

The Highlands are in Britain.

 

? has he posted that they are not?

[mushymanrob]

But you can not disagree the Models do look pretty bleak over the next few weeks for UK outdoor Holidaying... Whether they materialise is open to question, As ever.

id disagree that its wall to wall cloud wind and rain, there will be some usable weather. maybe not suntan on the beach but who stays here for that?

[Thundery wintry showers]

For as long as that Atlantic trough stays stubbornly rooted to the west of the British Isles, it's hard to see central and eastern parts of Britain having a washout.  Changeable but rather warm, with sunshine amounts slightly above average, continues to strike me as the most likely outcome.  For western parts (especially Ireland and western Scotland) it may be a different story and it may also become a different story more widely if the trough drifts eastwards, but for now there is no convincing evidence that it will do so for a while.

Edited August 3, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers