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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014


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A bigger complication, right now we don't know what its exact track and strength will be.

The GFS and European models have come into better agreement on the long-range fate of 93L. The great majority of the 20 members of the 00Z and 06Z Tuesday runs of the European and GFS ensemble models (which run at low resolution 20 times with slightly different initial conditions to show a range of possible outcomes) showed 93L taking more of a northwesterly track early next week, passing to the north of Hispaniola and not making an extended track through the Caribbean Sea. This raises the odds that the strong trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be able to recurve 93L out to sea without the storm hitting the mainland U.S. coast.

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Another very wet unsettled run out in fi from the gfs 12z that's 3 days in a row now so obviously picking up some kind of signal. So think we can right the first 2 weeks of August off as wet cool and unsettled.

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I really do get what Mushy is on about re that early morning smell. No, summer isn't over but there's definitely a slight feeling of decay in the air, as if everything is just past it's best. The garden is looking a bit tatty and the flowers are starting to wilt (or perhaps that's just our garden). It's particularly noticeable after a long warm spell like we've just had (in Birmingham) but it hopefully doesn't mean that the shorts need to go away for another year.

we are right in the peak of summer autumn is still a good few weeks away, this is like when people say a 29- 30 year old footballer is past his best or he is a bit old, too many people think about the future and not the present, autumn to me is 10-15c and rain on a consistent basis, the leaves on the trees going yellow and that won't happen in september, it will probably be 17-22c most days in september like it always is, that to me is not autumnal, yes it will get dark earlier in september but it gets dark at 7pm in cairo in summer, for me september is not really an autumn month esp here, in scotland it's an autumn month for sure

Edited by Tony27
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Another very wet unsettled run out in fi from the gfs 12z that's 3 days in a row now so obviously picking up some kind of signal. So think we can right the first 2 weeks of August off as wet cool and unsettled.

No we can't.

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we are right in the peak of summer autumn is still a good few weeks away, this is like when people say a 29- 30 year old footballer is past his best or he is a bit old, too many people think about the future and not the present, autumn to me is 10-15c and rain on a consistent basis, the leaves on the trees going yellow and that won't happen in september, it will probably be 17-22c most days in september like it always is, that to me is not autumnal, yes it will get dark earlier in september but it gets dark at 7pm in cairo in summer, for me september is not really an autumn month esp here, in scotland it's an autumn month for sure

tony.... some trees are bare by the end of september, other are clearly on the way out. it does happen in september and if necessary ill post pics to prove it. you seem to catagorise seasons too much, autumn covers a wide range of conditions not just rain . this is a meterological site and meterologically sept 1is autumn whether you agree or not.
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i have tomatoes, beans, lettuce etc still going strong in late September, in fact its colder at night in may than it is in september, you need to stop worrying about little signs of autumn you notice at 6:30am and just enjoy this summer, should i panic if i see daffs in late January? we might get a blizzard in feb, but we get more spring like weather in feb than autumn like weather in august anyway, and march is defo a spring month, september is still summer like

 

the only cold, dull dark months are nov to feb really, it can be 15-20c anytime from march to october, how often is it say 5-10c in September and october?

Edited by Tony27
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we are right in the peak of summer autumn is still a good few weeks away, this is like when people say a 29- 30 year old footballer is past his best or he is a bit old, too many people think about the future and not the present, autumn to me is 10-15c and rain on a consistent basis, the leaves on the trees going yellow and that won't happen in september, it will probably be 17-22c most days in september like it always is, that to me is not autumnal, yes it will get dark earlier in september but it gets dark at 7pm in cairo in summer, for me september is not really an autumn month esp here, in scotland it's an autumn month for sure

Excellent points

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we are right in the peak of summer autumn is still a good few weeks away,

 

i didnt say it wasnt!

i didnt say its autumn!

i didnt say its isnt summer!.

 

i did say that the other morning was LIKE autumn for reasons stated. in the very same way a hot sunny day in april is like summer or a sunny mild day in january is like spring.. 

now whats wrong with that? 

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we are right in the peak of summer autumn is still a good few weeks away, this is like when people say a 29- 30 year old footballer is past his best or he is a bit old, too many people think about the future and not the present, autumn to me is 10-15c and rain on a consistent basis, the leaves on the trees going yellow and that won't happen in september, it will probably be 17-22c most days in september like it always is, that to me is not autumnal, yes it will get dark earlier in september but it gets dark at 7pm in cairo in summer, for me september is not really an autumn month esp here, in scotland it's an autumn month for sure

Almost forgot why I hardly ever post on here. Some people turn missing the point into an art form. I wasn't wishing the summer away and some of my favourite footballers are over 30. I was merely noting the difference between a morning in, say late June and one in late July - we have seasons within seasons, along with their different smells, sights and feelings and...oh, never mind

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A lot of recent posts should really go in the Summer thread guys so if you could please try and keep your hope and moans around the model outputs.

We do have a more relaxed approach in here but the thread should still revolve around the current runs.

 

Thanks all. :)

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or very wet either...

if you think it isn't going to be overly wet I suggest u check out the latest run on the gfs 6z run. To me it looks very wet from around the 4th of August for many parts of the uk. With the Atlantic bringing in lots of rain bearing fronts right out into fi. Which is part of the reason I've cancelled my trip to scarborough cricket festival from 9th August.
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if you think it isn't going to be overly wet I suggest u check out the latest run on the gfs 6z run. To me it looks very wet from around the 4th of August for many parts of the uk. With the Atlantic bringing in lots of rain bearing fronts right out into fi. Which is part of the reason I've cancelled my trip to scarborough cricket festival from 9th August.

I have remains relatively dry and warm where I am yes there will be some rain around but not much here and temps mostly around the mid 20s throughout so hardly cool either

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I maintain my view that "changeable, especially in the west, but warm, especially in the east" is most likely to sum up the first half of August, with southerly winds blowing more frequently than usual.  The GFS, UKMO and ECMWF ensemble mean all suggest mainly southerly winds from the 5th to 9th August inclusive, with the relatively cool cloudy wet-looking ECMWF operational run being in the minority.

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It is starting to look like we could be entering a rather wet spell yes, however it may not end up as wet as it appears.

Edited by TonyH
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I maintain my view that "changeable, especially in the west, but warm, especially in the east" is most likely to sum up the first half of August, with southerly winds blowing more frequently than usual.  The GFS, UKMO and ECMWF ensemble mean all suggest mainly southerly winds from the 5th to 9th August inclusive, with the relatively cool cloudy wet-looking ECMWF operational run being in the minority.

 

indeed thats the feeling im getting off the models currently, not too bad, maybe more sun/warmth then weve had in many recent augusts and less rain?.. i guess its location dependant though with the northwest fareing worse.

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Yes a more changeable spell coming up.

It's already in to the northern half of the UK with showers and temperatures in the teens.Still good here and further south today but although currently 22C already feeling fresher with more cloud and a breeze.

The next week or so looks better further se, warmer with less rain or showers and some dry days.Much more unsettled further north and west as often the case in the modeled Atlantic pattern.

Looking at the latest Ens means it's starting to evolve into a typical UK Summer pattern for the start of August -the old north/south split.

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Noticed that the ECMWF is still showing some kind of attempted pressure rise from the South-West in FI (although seems to struggle to get far enough North to cover the whole of the UK). Would probably only really benefit the South. It seems to go against its ensemble mean where Low Pressure looks as though it would be more influential, albeit with North-Western areas again probably seeing the most unsettled conditions where the lowest of the heights seem to be concentrated. So could suggest that the operational model may be over-estimating any pressure rises from the South-West.

Nevertheless, the 06Z GFS does kind of follow the ECMWF's fairly subtle, but noticeable, pressure rise in FI (especially around 192 hours), but does quickly get knocked to our East). I suppose if some of these models continue to show this, then it could be possible a more settled spell (especially for the South or South-East) could develop after this likely unsettled upcoming episode. So if you're not a fan of wet weather in Summer, this could be good news for you. For now, though, the idea of the weather turning more disturbed with some spells of rain and showers is something I wouldn't mind seeing - in fact is something I'm quite looking forward too (as longs as their doesn't turn out to be too much in the way of frontal rain, and a lot of it just comes in showers/storms). It's been rather dry here in the last week or so, and have kind of missed seeing something fall from the sky. But it does certainly look like those away from the North-West shouldn't see anything too unsettled, particularly if the GFS turns out to be correct with it's Lows to the North-West not looking too dominant. There's a very good chance, anyway, that (almost) everywhere should at least see one drop of rain at some point, what with the models wanting to unleash that Low over the top of UK this weekend.

Still wonder, though, how long lasting this disturbed spell will last and whether High Pressure to our South or South-West can start deflecting those Lows further North, or North-West, away from the UK. It could just be that case that we'll see temporary ridges move in and quickly get knocked away to our East or South-East, and, as others have been saying, could just very well just turn out to be an average August. Who knows? I mean, again, I do feel some rain is overdue, but the idea of an unsettled spell lasting through the whole of August wouldn't seem all that thrilling, so personally hope some substantial pressure rise occurs eventually. Could still put up with an average August, though, as it would still mean some bright, sunny, and warm, spells at times. Perhaps should be grateful, anyway, for what has happened so far this Summer with the mostly rain-free conditions.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Well yet another very wet run out into fi from the gfs 12z this is the 6th run in a row now on this. Think it is either going to drop the idea or other models will follow in the days ahead.

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