Jump to content

Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 930
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

You may regret that decision. Anyone who has a bit of knowledge about the weather knows that you can not predict what its going to be like in 12 days time.

yes I might but the ECM also following the gfs tonight. So I thought instead of getting soaked at the cricket stay home and earn instead. Because in my opinion as things stand they will be very little play that week.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Although I share your preferences for warmth, I can't agree on this- it's only July 28th and I haven't picked up this scent you talk about. It's already 19C here this morning so if that's autumnal, most days in June here were also autumnal!

 

autumnal isnt based on temps alone...

there was that chilly musty autumnal scent in the air this morning here..... look at hedgerows, they are full of decaying grass stalks, dead cow parsley, fading leaves (not changinmg, just tatty), with all that rot about it will perfume the air. one thing i dislike most about autumn, give me the fresh air of spring anyday.

This is what the GFS 0z had for us today and the second chart is what it showed back on the 16th.

 

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

trouble is though, the anomaly charts support the second chart, not the first.

Link to post
Share on other sites

when it's sep the 28th that's when autumn sort of begins properly esp in the south, it's july the 28th for crying out loud people think about the next season way to early

Edited by Tony27
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

I've given up on strawclutching and hopecasting for now, what with both anomolies, means and ensembles all currently continuing to show the start of a pretty unsettled (and often wet in places) spell froim about Friday onwards. My earlier hopes of this being transient/shortlived with aswift return to HP influenced conditions next week, I'm starting to give up on. Unless there's a pretty big turnaround or radical shift in the rough's position for next week, over the next few days/sets of runs. Don't see it, nothing supporting anything lie that in today's output anyway.

 

Couldn't be worse times for our wek away involving two festivals and a week under canvas. Everything's peaked too damned early!

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by William of Walworth
Link to post
Share on other sites

Oops went a bit wrong there .... all that said, posts like this (from guess whom?) 

 

 

are not the posts of any serious model analyser, but that of a wind up merchant.

certainly no wind up mate that's the picture from the models.
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad..

im sick of being told im wrong or lying.

i didnt say it was autumn, i said that this morning, in the chilly air scented by decaying vegetation it was like autumn. just like a mild sunny day in january is like spring... whats so hard to understand in that without the udual suspects having yet another dig?

i was up at 6.30 , unless you come here and witness what i did STOP telling me im lying.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Who's calling you a liar?

 

You might be telling the truth but your description of the vegetation certainly isn't true for many other locations (mine included). Summer's still in the air here (cooler temperatures notwithstanding) and not about to go away any time soon as far as I'm concerned.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Who's calling you a liar?

 

You might be telling the truth but your description of the vegetation certainly isn't true for many other locations (mine included). Summer's still in the air here (cooler temperatures notwithstanding) and not about to go away any time soon as far as I'm concerned.

 

i gave a description of the morning i had here. i didnt say the musty smell of decaying vegetation was everywhere. i didnt say its autumn...i said that at that point of the morning it was LIKE autumn... not all day.

 

jeez... :wallbash:

Edited by Polar Maritime
Removed personal comments.
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Can I please remind people to keep discussion friendly in here, It's not difficult, If a post upsets you, Or you think it's off topic then please report it to the Mods. Do not self moderate as the thread can become a real mess, As we have seen this morning.

 

Please stick to Model Banter or Moans in here.

 

Many Thanks, PM

Edited by Polar Maritime
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Thankfully the write-off of "the last 3rd of July" didnt come off.

Still looks fine down here, and warm, for next couple of days.

Although looks like August will start off less settled but temps down here, anyway, look pretty decent still.

Let's hope it's just showers for first few days of August and a speedy return to the settled, warm and sunny weather for bulk of August.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

The low pressure looks like being centred mainly to the west of the British Isles with high pressure over eastern Scandinavia, so a cool grey wet period looks unlikely to me- "changeable, but rather warm at times" may well end up being a more accurate assessment.  I expect the low pressure to be the more dominant factor as we head into August but this may change towards midmonth as we could see the trough to the NW weaken and allow higher pressure to build to the south and east.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Beautiful Days down Devon-way maybe? Or is it V? We're due for festavals for the next three weekends (including that of Sat 16th August). Cheshire, Shropshire and S Devon respectively. Absolutely not the right time for conditions to turn more unsettled, and that's exactly what's currently suggested for next Thursday or Friday. Hence my losing it a tad the other day on this thread with 'writer offers' of August -- apologies for that, but some posters do seem almost to take pleasure in ramping up unsettled for periods of weeks on end once the models turn more unsettled for a few days from now! But nothing's nailed on for later than this coming week yet, or at least not beyond next weekend. I'm praying for a swift return to HP influence, and that's by no means impossible in FI. Who knows?

No I'm going to the Rewind South 80s music festival near Henley on Thames, Oxfordshire. It'll be my 5th year there and to be honest, the weather has never been the awful mud-bath that Glastonbury seems to get hit with. Am a bit nervous with the model output currently but the 15-17 Aug is way too far away to even guess at weather conditions. I just hope this unsettled spell is over quickly and the rest of Aug is hot and sunny, we are due a decent Aug!
Link to post
Share on other sites

i gave a description of the morning i had here. i didnt say the musty smell of decaying vegetation was everywhere. i didnt say its autumn...i said that at that point of the morning it was LIKE autumn... not all day.

 

jeez... :wallbash:

how warm do you expect it to be at 6:30 in the morning? today is yet another very warm day here i'd say i've had about 20 proper summer days this summer, hopefully we have 20 proper winter days in winter but even if we did it will actually only snow on about 2 or 3 days out of those 20, snow is no where near as common as sun or rain

Edited by Tony27
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

If people are complaining about a lack of Summery weather this Summer then they have severe issues with the UK climate!

As I said yesterday, consensus at day 10 will probably be even worse if Bertha recurves.

In what way will it be worse?

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

how warm do you expect it to be at 6:30 in the morning? today is yet another very warm day here i'd say i've had about 20 proper summer days this summer, hopefully we have 20 proper winter days in winter but even if we did it will actually only snow on about 2 or 3 days out of those 20, snow is no where near as common as sun or rain

 

well it has been pretty warm, my comment related entirely to my location at that time and after we lost the higher uppers it was noticably cooler then of late.

 

why i should have to justify a perfectly reasonable account of an observation made frankly says more about the detractors motives then mine.

 

and you are yet again going on about YOUR notion of summer and what conditions YOU think everyone else should enjoy. ive explained fully why 23c isnt as useful as 25+c , why you cannot accept that is your problem.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I've given up on strawclutching and hopecasting for now, what with both anomolies, means and ensembles all currently continuing to show the start of a pretty unsettled (and often wet in places) spell froim about Friday onwards. My earlier hopes of this being transient/shortlived with aswift return to HP influenced conditions next week, I'm starting to give up on. Unless there's a pretty big turnaround or radical shift in the rough's position for next week, over the next few days/sets of runs. Don't see it, nothing supporting anything lie that in today's output anyway.

 

Couldn't be worse times for our wek away involving two festivals and a week under canvas. Everything's peaked too damned early!

 

well in both 2006 and 2013 the heat was expected to return...it didnt.does that mean we wont get another shot at a hot spell this year?...no! the anomaly charts suggest a trough driven regime, but its not looking like a 2012 style washout. its looking unsettled, but with the mean trough sitting somewhere off the south of iceland that should be far enough away for us to miss the heaviest of the rain. theres going to be a nw/se split by the look of it, and the se could well get a pretty pleasant august with the nw fareing worst.

 

trough driven - yes... washout - no. of course the devils in the detail and thatll only become apparrent nearer the time. id suggest august is looking average, which aint bad but like an average february (for cold lovers)  its not really what heat lovers would like to see .

Link to post
Share on other sites

I really do get what Mushy is on about re that early morning smell. No, summer isn't over but there's definitely a slight feeling of decay in the air, as if everything is just past it's best. The garden is looking a bit tatty and the flowers are starting to wilt (or perhaps that's just our garden). It's particularly noticeable after a long warm spell like we've just had (in Birmingham) but it hopefully doesn't mean that the shorts need to go away for another year.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

If people are complaining about a lack of Summery weather this Summer then they have severe issues with the UK climate!In what way will it be worse?

A bigger complication, right now we don't know what its exact track and strength will be.
Link to post
Share on other sites

I really do get what Mushy is on about re that early morning smell. No, summer isn't over but there's definitely a slight feeling of decay in the air, as if everything is just past it's best. The garden is looking a bit tatty and the flowers are starting to wilt (or perhaps that's just our garden). It's particularly noticeable after a long warm spell like we've just had (in Birmingham) but it hopefully doesn't mean that the shorts need to go away for another year.

 

cheers for that! :)

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...