Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

[I remember Atlantic 252]

fully agree.... esp sleeping. i too have no problem, thats solved by consuming alcohol. lol.

 

see wish I was like that, I find sleeping tough when hot, or after a few drinks virtually impossible for me to sleep when had too much drink! everyone different

 

swear filter grr,

Edited July 17, 2014 by IrememberAtlantic252

[conor123]

Nothing worse than a warm, humid night for me, Californian type summer's would suit me with the low humidity and large diurnal range, 25c by day is fine but sub 15c minima is essential unless at an outdoor event/camping! nothing worse than these south easterly/easterly driven warm spells when it's still 20c at midnight.

[snowsummer]

Sleeping in the heat is no problem for me.....sleeping through the best thunderstorm we've had in essex for years was a different ball game! Didnt see that one in the model forecast before I went to bed!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

UKMO on meteociel still only FI? have UKMO model stopped early runs a bit like ECM, which starts at 72

[William of Walworth]

This is a an anti-moan (though possibly a ramp!) : current output showing some stunning summer prospects for most of the UK for at least a week, with plenty of dry, settled sunny.    

 

Possibly it could head into two weeks of it even! Just need to get rid of this coming w/e's nuisance-storms first! 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO on meteociel still only FI? have UKMO model stopped early runs a bit like ECM, which starts at 72

 

I do have more info on this as I sent them an e-mail not sure if I can post it here or not, PM if you want and I'll give you the info

[Tony27]

UKMO on meteociel still only FI? have UKMO model stopped early runs a bit like ECM, which starts at 72

it's been stuck on the same dates up till T72 for weeks now, the change from T72 to T96 will look very strange in winter

[Yarmy]

it's been stuck on the same dates up till T72 for weeks now, the change from T72 to T96 will look very strange in winter

 

You can get 'em on meteocentre:

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=000&map=eur〈=fr

 

Edit: Even better you can get it in English

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=eur&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&hh=000&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1

 

 

I prefer the colour scheme on meteociel though.

Edited July 18, 2014 by Yarmy

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I do have more info on this as I sent them an e-mail not sure if I can post it here or not, PM if you want and I'll give you the info

 

cheers, just thought it was a new thing, like ECM only starts at 72, thought this may be error

[Blessed Weather]

Sleeping in the heat is no problem for me.....sleeping through the best thunderstorm we've had in essex for years was a different ball game! Didnt see that one in the model forecast before I went to bed!

 

Yes, all the forecasts for Essex and Suffolk had the overnight band of thunderstorms well west of us snowsummer. Just a band of cloud for us! Well early this morning I thought my alarm clock had malfunctioned! Woke up with it so dark outside I thought it was still night-time. Then we had a short (20 minute) but intense thunderstorm with all the bells and whistles. I guess the models (and the Met Off by their own admission) are struggling with the exact locale of storms as they flood north off the continent. Take tonight's model output for 6.00 a.m. Saturday. GFS 12z would have East Anglia heading for a deluge, whereas the Euro4 model has it all missing us. Which do think will be nearer the mark?

 

GFS Euro4 

 

Edit - It's 9.30 Fri evening and I've just looked at the rainfall radar. Showing storms heading north across the SE and heading for E. Anglia. They're weren't shown on Euro4, so much maligned GFS precipitation charts might be heading for a win here!

Edited July 18, 2014 by Blessed Weather

[Snowyowl9]

Weather charts looks too good to be true.

Well if it still looks like this by Monday I`ll be cutting the last field of hay in relaxing mode.

[SylvainTV]

I do have more info on this as I sent them an e-mail not sure if I can post it here or not, PM if you want and I'll give you the info

 

I have found more info about this :

 

http://www.unidata.ucar.edu/mailing_lists/archives/ldm-users/2014/msg00098.html

 

I don't know how MeteoCentre still gets the data though. Maybe they asked for a special feed.

 

"On June 6th UKMET stopped disseminating part of their 1.25 degree globalmodel. NCEP has not been able to get a great deal of detail on why we arestill receiving partial products (ie 06-36 FHs) even though theirannouncement listed all FHs will be removed. So it is possible to expect atsome point the remaining hours will be turned off. I also don't have anidea on what/when anything will replace this.--Carissa KlemmerNCEP Central OperationsProduction Management Branch Dataflow Team"

 

That's not really good news !

 

Sylvain

[mushymanrob]

ya boo no thunderstorm here grrrr

i see several are posting about what a great summer its been this far.... and i dare say that in some areas they have had a great summer so far.

 

but here its been pretty average/normal until the last week. so far ive only had 3 days where the temps have topped 25c+ . compare that to other 'good' summers( by this stage)  and it lags this year far behind. see, you can make stats say anything!

however, it is looking hopeful that we will all get some decent sunny/warm/hot weather next week, as surely true 'good' summers provides.

[Tony27]

an average summer is far better than an average winter mushy, i bet i won't have seen three ice days by the 19th of jan next year, December is normally still an autumn month anyway 

[conor123]

Here it comes, the inevitable rant about Telford's latest failure.

Once again tropical sunshine and heat all week only to turn hideous for the weekend, gross day with no sunshine and just endless light/moderate patchy rain with no thunder/lightning to top it off and Birmingham/Solihull area set to get yet another storm in an hour's time whilst we sit under the drizzle.

*rant over* aha.

Edited July 19, 2014 by conor123

[Eugene]

Well Conor you don't really expect perfect sunshine living in the west midlands all summer long do you, I think we've done brilliantly for sunny weekend's since May, the only really wet day I can remember i think was June 4th when it was cold and wet all day long, just 11C max in the Solihull area, apart from that since March its been very dry indeed, exceptionally so and almost sunny all the time since May, you really don't have much to complain about if you ask me.

[mushymanrob]

an average summer is far better than an average winter mushy, i bet i won't have seen three ice days by the 19th of jan next year, December is normally still an autumn month anyway

tony, i refuse to play the 'who misses out most'game, its childish.december autumn,? well two of the coldest and snowiest winters in the last 33 years were centred in december. 81, 10 ,

[Tony27]

and what about the other 31 years? i can't understand how as a mildie you think you have it worse than us coldies     i used to love hot weather and i can remember many more hot sunny days in june than cold snowy days in december 

Edited July 19, 2014 by Tony27

[mushymanrob]

and what about the other 31 years? i can't understand how as a mildie you think you have it worse than us coldies     i used to love hot weather and i can remember many more hot sunny days in june than cold snowy days in december 

 

i told you im not playing the childish tit for tat game... i dont give a damn who has it 'worse', its only a personal perspective anyway, until theres a forum rule that 'only those who have it worse can moan', anyone can moan as much as they want IF they are not getting the weather they desire... thats whats in the title of this forum. feel free to moan daily throughout winter, thats your perogative.

 

ive not seen a local 30c since 06... im perfectly entitled to moan about that !

[Yarmy]

I have found more info about this :

 

http://www.unidata.ucar.edu/mailing_lists/archives/ldm-users/2014/msg00098.html

 

I don't know how MeteoCentre still gets the data though. Maybe they asked for a special feed.

 

"On June 6th UKMET stopped disseminating part of their 1.25 degree globalmodel. NCEP has not been able to get a great deal of detail on why we arestill receiving partial products (ie 06-36 FHs) even though theirannouncement listed all FHs will be removed. So it is possible to expect atsome point the remaining hours will be turned off. I also don't have anidea on what/when anything will replace this.--Carissa KlemmerNCEP Central OperationsProduction Management Branch Dataflow Team"

 

That's not really good news !

 

Sylvain

 

This really is probably deserving of its own thread. Is the second-best verifying model about to be removed from public view? Without indulging in any faux Daily Mail outrage, the Met Office is a member of the Public Data Group and this action (if it is true) surely conflicts with that?

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Data_Group

[cheese]

i told you im not playing the childish tit for tat game... i dont give a damn who has it 'worse', its only a personal perspective anyway, until theres a forum rule that 'only those who have it worse can moan', anyone can moan as much as they want IF they are not getting the weather they desire... thats whats in the title of this forum. feel free to moan daily throughout winter, thats your perogative.

 

ive not seen a local 30c since 06... im perfectly entitled to moan about that !

We saw 31C on 27 June 2011 and 1 August 2013! Highest temp so far is 26C - pretty disappointing, given how warm it has been this month (only one day below 20C).

Edited July 20, 2014 by cheese

[mushymanrob]

We saw 31C on 27 June 2011 and 1 August 2013! Highest temp so far is 26C - pretty disappointing, given how warm it has been this month (only one day below 20C).

 

fair play..

 

yes its funny isnt it... statistically june was the 10th warmest (i believe) yet i saw no 25c... as many others wouldnt have done. how do you judge a good summer? the average or by the best it has to offer?  i dont think we remember 'average' (even if the means above average), we do remember hot spells, i think june would have gone down in manys memories as 'good' or better if we had had a hot spell or two, even short ones.

[Tony27]

i told you im not playing the childish tit for tat game... i dont give a damn who has it 'worse', its only a personal perspective anyway, until theres a forum rule that 'only those who have it worse can moan', anyone can moan as much as they want IF they are not getting the weather they desire... thats whats in the title of this forum. feel free to moan daily throughout winter, thats your perogative.

 

ive not seen a local 30c since 06... im perfectly entitled to moan about that !

30c is about 8-9 degrees above average for derby i think, have you not seen 27c 28c or 29c in recent summers then? who cares whether its 27c 28c or 30c it's still hot, i wish to see daily maxes of -2c -3c in winter which is about 8-9 degrees below average, but on the RARE occasions it snows it always seems to be about 0.5c and the snow slowly melts, as i've said before it has to be 0c or below in winter you don't need to see 30c in summer, are you really going to complain if you see 28c this week and not 30c? 

Edited July 20, 2014 by Polar Maritime
Edited due to personal remarks.

[Polar Maritime]

Please can we now draw a line under this, Keep discussion friendly and respect others personal preferences.

 

Many Thanks. PM

Edited July 20, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[phil nw.]

I certainly echo your post above PM,let's not fall out over weather .

We all love talking about it or else we wouldn't be on here so let's try and enjoy our common interest in a friendly manner.

 

Just a reminder folks this thread is to complain about or talk up the Model outputs and what they are showing during this Spring/Summer.

This is more relaxed than the main Model Discussion thread that's why we opened it.No need for anything too technical or too analytical just some general banter/chat around the current charts.

 

A number of recent posts were suited more to the wider discussions in Summer 2014 thread so it will keep things on track if members can bare this in mind.

 

Thanks all.