Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

[mushymanrob]

The good part mushy is he knew where he went incorrect and skewiffed for summer 2011 and evaluated the mistakes with aplomb. Fortunately we had a warm autumn which made up for it.

absolutely, and i wasnt disrespecting him, just pointing out that he wasnt always right..... but far better then most and that was too his credit.

[DTHFCJ]

The good part mushy is he knew where he went incorrect and skewiffed for summer 2011 and evaluated the mistakes with aplomb. Fortunately we had a warm autumn which made up for it.

agree,GP even though i didnt really get to read his thoughts as much as many on here did ....indeed had the b@lls to stand up when things didnt quite work out,summer 2011 was 3 months late im sure i recall 30c in october,the man was close very very close to the shades of 76....a big loss for NetWeather is someones lucky gain,and good luck to the man

[Polar Maritime]

He could see a lot of things the best met office forecasters couldn't see which I praised him for.

 

I'm pretty sure the MET could and still can, We were just lucky enough to have GP on the Forum to give us his thoughts, For which the MET are much more careful on what/which thought's they put across to the public.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looking at the ECM 12z....oh great, more boringly benign weather to see us well into July. Pleasant is all good and well for a little bit but I'm craving some kind of interesting weather....

[Evening thunder]

Looking at the models, I hope we don't get a summer dominated by an Azores high stuck out to the SW feeding in NW winds, or even ridging into the south at times bringing no other weather of interest except a bit of warmth/sun. Also it may be a waste of above average SST's around here and the positive anomalies may decline away.

 

Most models and ensembles seem to want to show that all the way through.. 

I suppose if high pressure ridges in enough to allow warmer uppers, it can be pretty nice here and warm, as the south coast is more sheltered. I'd either want that or the trough being close enough/over is to allow slacker winds and thundery showers, please no constant cool NW winds with not much weather..

While conditions could be pleasant if the Azores ridges enough, I'm also a weather enthusiast so want some other interest in weather/temperatures, i.e a continental flow with thunderstorm potential, heatwaves/brief plumes.. this Azores high possibly ridging in a bit seems the most boring way to potentially get pleasant conditions (or the most boring way to not get pleasant conditions)

 

Scandinavia is doing just fine all the way through of course..

[Thundery wintry showers]

I have a similar issue with the "Azores High ridging into the south-west" setup.  However, I don't think we're likely to be stuck with it for much of July.  The NOAA anomaly charts and the ECMWF model are suggesting a relaxation of the positive pressure anomaly to the north of the Azores and weaker-than-usual westerlies over the British Isles as we head towards mid-July, with an above-average anticyclonic tendency.  I still think we could get a weak anticyclone moving eastwards through the British Isles around mid-July.

 

Meanwhile we have a few days of significant convective potential coming up between Saturday and Tuesday.  

[knocker]

After cooking along for almost 8-months, Canadian global model 5-day skill for NH has hit the skids. pic.twitter.com/WPrzjuAxan

 

[mushymanrob]

well im no fan of the azores high as long as it remains an azores high. with that fiend stuck there we cant get any proper heat. we need it displace, or become a euro high or allow a eurohigh to build. but stuck on our southwest doorstep it dooms us in terms of sunshine and heat.

[Lauren]

What exactly is an Azores high and what weather does it bring in laymans terms?

[Captain Shortwave]

well im no fan of the azores high as long as it remains an azores high. with that fiend stuck there we cant get any proper heat. we need it displace, or become a euro high or allow a eurohigh to build. but stuck on our southwest doorstep it dooms us in terms of sunshine and heat.

Not far off a decent pattern though, the high can stay out west and still bring some very warm or even hot conditions. Just needed the pattern another 50-100 mile north and most of the UK would have been very warm or hot today. Next week looks potentially quite decent, though again where the jet finally ends up will determine who is very warm and those who are cool and wet.

[phil nw.]

What exactly is an Azores high and what weather does it bring in laymans terms?

Hi Lauren.

 

The Azores High is a semi permanent area of high pressure or anticyclone situated somewhere around the Azores islands to the west of Portugal-hence the name.

Here is a good example off the 12z GFS run for T120hrs.

 

 

If it ridges close to the UK it can often bring fine and warm weather in Summer.

With the flow clockwise around the high the far north of the UK can still be affected by westerly winds and Atlantic systems from low pressure to the far north.

It just depends on it's exact position and how far north it ridges-the closer to the UK usually the better the weather becomes more widely.

In WInter because of a stronger jet the Azores high tends to be flatter and any ridging is brief allowing the Atlantic weather systems to move across the UK from the west.The weather is  often cloudy damp and drizzly with milder temperatures if winds are from the south west.

That Winter setup is the typical UK pattern and is often referred to as Zonal -low pressure to the north around Iceland and the Azores high held further south so westerly/south westerly winds.

 

That is not what snow lovers want in Winter that's for sure.

[AderynCoch]

What exactly is an Azores high and what weather does it bring in laymans terms?

A large area of high pressure which is often found in the vicinity of the Azore Islands in the middle of the Atlantic.

 

You can see it in the bottom left of this chart:

 

In summer it has a tendency to ridge towards NW Europe. The weather which entails depends on the placement of the high: places under the Azores High will receive very warm and sunny weather, but if the ridge is too far south then a westerly flow off the Atlantic will occur instead due to the clockwise movement of air around the high pressure. So the Azores High is a mixed blessing for the UK, depending on how far north it can reach.

 

EDIT - Phil puts it better.

Edited July 3, 2014 by AderynCoch

[Thundery wintry showers]

The confusion over the Azores High probably arises because most of our warm/hot dry sunny spells result initially from the Azores High ridging north-eastwards and anticyclones forming over north-western Europe, but that doesn't mean a stronger-than-usual Azores High- in fact, in most such cases the Azores High is weaker than usual as the core of high pressure is spread out rather than concentrated over the Azores region.  Here are two good examples:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1976/Rrea00119760627.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950816.gif

 

A strong Azores High ridging into the south can bring spells of warm dry sunny weather to the areas covered by the ridging high, but areas on the periphery of the high, while maintaining fairly settled weather, are more likely to end up relatively cool and cloudy (a stronger anticyclone implies stronger winds around its periphery for example).

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00119980805.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2002/Rrea00120020625.gif

In August 1998 the high often covered southern England and so the London area had 30-40% more sunshine than usual that month, but it was cloudier further north, while in the June 2002 instance the high was too far south and so even southern England ended up quite cloudy.

 

Fans of hot thundery type setups are more likely to be well-served by an Atlantic trough/Euro high pattern with the Azores High displaced to the west of its usual position.

Edited July 3, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[knocker]

A good example of the Bermuda-Azores High in mid Atlantic with the bonus of Hurricane Arthur.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Damn Scandinavians, if it isn't cold 850s in winter, it's hot 850s in summer

[mushymanrob]

Not far off a decent pattern though, the high can stay out west and still bring some very warm or even hot conditions. Just needed the pattern another 50-100 mile north and most of the UK would have been very warm or hot today. Next week looks potentially quite decent, though again where the jet finally ends up will determine who is very warm and those who are cool and wet.

 

true, and itll be a summer of frustration as we are so near to getting a decent hot spell but it never quite arrives ... ok some southeastern areas will fare ok..but a normal average british summer isnt bad.

[MP-R]

Damn Scandinavians, if it isn't cold 850s in winter, it's hot 850s in summer

 

Coar! That would bring some big storms to Spain. 20C+ in the south and 8C in the north, what a difference!

[Costa Del Fal]

Damn Scandinavians, if it isn't cold 850s in winter, it's hot 850s in summer

What's frustrating is how those cold uppers do everything they can to go over the UK. It's almost always us suffering this problem!

[cheese]

Damn Scandinavians, if it isn't cold 850s in winter, it's hot 850s in summer

Forecast for Turku, SW Finland:

 

even better:

 

 

Our climate can really stink at times.

Edited July 4, 2014 by cheese

[Summer Sun]

It's very strange that synoptically, we are under low pressure, but the general theme of the weather we have today is more often associated with higher pressure. Beats me, I'm not complaining!

 

Same here a bit breezy but nothing major and we have a fair amount of sunshine would be a different story if the wind was coming in from the east though

Edited July 5, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

It's very strange that synoptically, we are under low pressure, but the general theme of the weather we have today is more often associated with higher pressure. Beats me, I'm not complaining!

 

I thought exactly the same today. Ive seen cloudier skies under high pressure than what i saw today. A look at the radar shows very little shower activity for an unsettled looking chart. It could have something to do with the origin of low pressure from the NW rather than the SW.

Edited July 5, 2014 by Milhouse

[mushymanrob]

well thats it then.... game over.yeah im writing off summer , this mornings runs all agree on a downgrade of anything summery and things are going to get worse not better. heatwaves are always in a weeks time, always get downgraded, and now the chances of a hot evolution have shifted away.we here have yet to get a 25c+ , the outlook is wet, trough domination, its the heart of summer.  can it recover? yes but statistically its highly unlikely.

[Terminal Moraine]

well thats it then.... game over.yeah im writing off summer , this mornings runs all agree on a downgrade of anything summery and things are going to get worse not better. heatwaves are always in a weeks time, always get downgraded, and now the chances of a hot evolution have shifted away.we here have yet to get a 25c+ , the outlook is wet, trough domination, its the heart of summer.  can it recover? yes but statistically its highly unlikely.

Presumably, Rob, you're looking only for uninterrupted sunshine and furnace heat to be writing off this summer which, I would have thought for the majority of people, has been pretty good so far.

 

Here, June was the 6th warmest on record and drier than average, though admittedly not very sunny, and so far July is warmer than average with average sunshine and almost all the rain falling overnight.

 

Now, from my pluvial, cool and misty perspective the summer so far has been distinctly dismal but I'm not yet writing it off. There's always the possibility of a cool, wet and windy August ( or even late July! ) to look forward to and I would have thought that at your end of weather preference you'd be hanging on for signs of a couple of weeks of anticyclonic heat even though the current charts don't show anything imminently.

[knocker]

All I can say is that in Cornwall it's been a great summer so far. Who in their right minds wants heat waves anyway?

[Polar Maritime]

Game over..?

 

It's been great here so far this Summer, Nothing to hot and great for working/out-door activity's, Perfect growing weather to. A typical British Summer.

Edited July 8, 2014 by Polar Maritime