Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

[snow freak]

the UK really is a wierd place when it comes to weather.  in winter it can't get its act together and produce significant cold and snow and then in the summer it can't seem to give us lengthy warmth and sunshine.  Yes, so far this summer hasn't been awful, although where i live in the east midlands it has been more cloudy than sunshine on most days.  I have yet to see a day with wall to wall sunshine all day.  So far, this summer won't go down in my books as being one to particularly remember i have to say.  I just hope July and August can come through better otherwise it is going to be very long winter.

[mushymanrob]

Indeed. What about this chart from a summer that many remember quite fondly

 

 

Or this from an otherwise cracking summer

 

 

Or maybe this

 

 

....yep, awfuly july charts in great summers..

the difference between those summers and this one?

 

those summers had already had a hot spell by july. this year we havnt. every hot summer i looked into had at least 1 hot spell (and im talking 25c+ for 3 days + in the cet) .

nobody has yet supplied me with any data that contradicts my premis. 2014 is very unlikely to be a long hot summer, or if it does turn into one itll set a new precident. every one of those summers i looked into had at least 1 hot spell prior to july. there appears to be no hot summer that started late without a pre-cursor before july.

 

nobody will be happier then me if i have to reassess the data! :lol:

 

edit.... that doesnt mean to say we wont get anything nice, even a short hot spell or two, just not a 'noteably hot sunny summer'.

Edited June 26, 2014 by mushymanrob

[Methuselah]

I might well be wrong, and it doesn't mean much either way, but 1983 was in no way great, before the heat started?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

....yep, awfuly july charts in great summers..the difference between those summers and this one? those summers had already had a hot spell by july. this year we havnt. every hot summer i looked into had at least 1 hot spell (and im talking 25c+ for 3 days + in the cet) .nobody has yet supplied me with any data that contradicts my premis. 2014 is very unlikely to be a long hot summer, or if it does turn into one itll set a new precident. every one of those summers i looked into had at least 1 hot spell prior to july. there appears to be no hot summer that started late without a pre-cursor before july. nobody will be happier then me if i have to reassess the data! :lol: edit.... that doesnt mean to say we wont get anything nice, even a short hot spell or two, just not a 'noteably hot sunny summer'.

Anything can happen, it is the weather after all. It always catches us out. Who's to say that we won't hit 37c before mid august?

[Woollymummy]

As the kids are coming home with lovely little bits of melted tar from the playground, and I have young plants to nurture on the allotment, I am very happy with the idea that we get a little bit of warmth and occasionally some rain , changeable is manageable, the prospect of endless heat is not really something I welcome. What I want to know is how far round the globe can you see weather developing which stays, and is it likely that the weather happening now over USA will predict the weather we get in 10 days time (or longer/shorter) , or is that only a thing which is easy to see in winter?

[mushymanrob]

I might well be wrong, and it doesn't mean much either way, but 1983 was in no way great, before the heat started?

 

indeed... but the hot spell started on my wedding day - june 25 ! and was established by the end of the first week in july.

 

Anything can happen, it is the weather after all. It always catches us out. Who's to say that we won't hit 37c before mid august?

 

no no no... thats my point, anything CANT happen! not with the pattern the way it is.. the weather isnt that random, what controls our weather only gives us a narrower range of options given any state they are in. until they are in a state that will allow a lasting heatwave, we cannot get one.now we can get shorter ones possibly, i said as much, but as things stand a lasting hot spell to rival 06,03,95,89, 83, 76, 75, 59, 55, etc etc etc cannot be produced as the state of the atmosphere and the drivers that produce our weather are not in favour of such an event. they could change in favour tomorrow...but imho its highly unlikely.we might end up with a reasonably pleasant summer, its not been bad of late and if the last week or two was transferred to the rest of summer we wouldnt do too badly. but atm ive yet to see a 25c !!!! but even if we got that, it still wouldnt a 'great hot summer' make.so let me be clear on this.... i strongly believe that the chances now of us getting a hot summer to rival those listed (and one earlier predicted in the year, the hottest summer on record baloney) are strongly against it happening. im not saying itll be a washout, im not suggesting that we wont get some nice dry sunny hot spells - we might, and im not saying catagorically that we wont.... just that its highly unlikely as all the great hot summers had either started by the end of the first week in july, or/and they had at least one 'hot' spell (widespread 25c+) beforehand.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Indeed. What about this chart from a summer that many remember quite fondly

 

My favourite example is this chart from the 15th July 1995:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950715.gif

 

I could see a lot of people seeing a chart like that and concluding that the outlook was set to be cool, grey and wet.  After all, there was extensive northern blocking, a low almost on top of the country, and a flattened Azores High, leaving Britain potentially exposed to a succession of Atlantic lows.

 

In reality, most of us avoided a dull cool wet spell altogether because that particular low didn't bring much frontal activity and so mostly gave a mix of sunny spells and thundery showers, and then when the next lot of depressions arrived, the jet took a strong northward turn as it entered our end of the Atlantic.

 

One thing I will say- the longer we go into summer without a significant hot spell, the harder it is to get a long hot summer, simply because we have less of the summer remaining for a prolonged hot spell to fit into.  I have to admit that I don't recall any examples of scorching Augusts that followed a June and July without any notable hot spells, but we sometimes get odd statistical quirks in meteorology, like the fact that in the Met Office's UK national sunshine series, no August has recorded between 200 and 240 hours of sunshine yet three exceeded 240 hours.

Edited June 26, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[MP-R]

Mushy I'm guessing you mean nationwide hot spells as precursors? There were a few days at around 25C in May and the temperature has been hovering around 25C most days here for the last two weeks. If you mean a plume, then yes, we haven't had a proper one yet.

[knocker]

Snipped.

Edited June 26, 2014 by knocker

[J10]

We heav already had a noteworthy spell of good settled weather, with abundant sunshine for over 2 weeks, a very good spell in my books. I would rather this that a plume of a few days and then unsettled.

[Lauren]

Considering how unpredictable our weather is, I often find it weird how people will be adamant the charts are gospel a month out. Hell, the charts can be wrong on the bloody day!

 

So as a layperson, are the current runs showing rain nearly every day for July?

[Scorcher]

....yep, awfuly july charts in great summers..the difference between those summers and this one?

 

those summers had already had a hot spell by july. this year we havnt. every hot summer i looked into had at least 1 hot spell (and im talking 25c+ for 3 days + in the cet) .nobody has yet supplied me with any data that contradicts my premis. 2014 is very unlikely to be a long hot summer, or if it does turn into one itll set a new precident. every one of those summers i looked into had at least 1 hot spell prior to july. there appears to be no hot summer that started late without a pre-cursor before july.

 

 

 

2013? There hadn't been a hot spell by this point last year either. Although for most 2013 wouldn't quite fit into that 'classic' hot summer bracket for many (although it could do statistically in NW England), at this point last year there was no indication of the very good July that was coming.

[Captain Shortwave]

The CFS v2 suugested a hot July last year as far back as march, now I'm suspicious we are gonna get weather suggested by cfs but for the wrong reasons for July. There just seems to be so much blocking for some weird reason.

before June started there was a consistent signal for heights east of the UK and low heights west with the UK straddling between the hot continental air and the cooler Atlantic flow. That signal along with that set-up disappeared mid-June and hasn't returned since. Either way like in winter, how the blocking sets up will determine the conditions for the UK. Considering that heights will be low over Greenland next week suggests that persistent blocking in the deathly place looks unlikely.

[mushymanrob]

Mushy I'm guessing you mean nationwide hot spells as precursors? There were a few days at around 25C in May and the temperature has been hovering around 25C most days here for the last two weeks. If you mean a plume, then yes, we haven't had a proper one yet.

 

yes... cet zone hot spells... of course theres odd favoured places over 25c.

 

2013? There hadn't been a hot spell by this point last year either. Although for most 2013 wouldn't quite fit into that 'classic' hot summer bracket for many (although it could do statistically in NW England), at this point last year there was no indication of the very good July that was coming.

 

...but it had started by the end of the first week in july. that appears to be the 'cut off date'... just check all the classic hot summers...im sure we will get some heat at some point, its not 1985, but  not the long hot summer many predicted in the spring, (just google it) or one to rival the list posted of great hot summers.... hey, average aint bad! (and i think thats likely).

[mushymanrob]

My favourite example is this chart from the 15th July 1995:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950715.gif

 

I could see a lot of people seeing a chart like that and concluding that the outlook was set to be cool, grey and wet.  After all, there was extensive northern blocking, a low almost on top of the country, and a flattened Azores High, leaving Britain potentially exposed to a succession of Atlantic lows.

 

In reality, most of us avoided a dull cool wet spell altogether because that particular low didn't bring much frontal activity and so mostly gave a mix of sunny spells and thundery showers, and then when the next lot of depressions arrived, the jet took a strong northward turn as it entered our end of the Atlantic.

 

One thing I will say- the longer we go into summer without a significant hot spell, the harder it is to get a long hot summer, simply because we have less of the summer remaining for a prolonged hot spell to fit into. I have to admit that I don't recall any examples of scorching Augusts that followed a June and July without any notable hot spells, but we sometimes get odd statistical quirks in meteorology, like the fact that in the Met Office's UK national sunshine series, no August has recorded between 200 and 240 hours of sunshine yet three exceeded 240 hours.

 

so you agree with me !

[Captain Shortwave]

yes... cet zone hot spells... of course theres odd favoured places over 25c.

 

 

...but it had started by the end of the first week in july. that appears to be the 'cut off date'... just check all the classic hot summers...im sure we will get some heat at some point, its not 1985, but  not the long hot summer many predicted in the spring, (just google it) or one to rival the list posted of great hot summers.... hey, average aint bad! (and i think thats likely).

I can't really disagree with you on what you say, there is definitely a trend where hot weather is like English buses, you either get none or two or more come in one season. 

Anyway if the ECM is to be believed then next week looks mostly dry for a good part of the country and turning rather warm too. Typically the next agreed unsettled spell is next weekend.... standard.

[mushymanrob]

I can't really disagree with you on what you say, there is definitely a trend where hot weather is like English buses, you either get none or two or more come in one season. 

Anyway if the ECM is to be believed then next week looks mostly dry for a good part of the country and turning rather warm too. Typically the next agreed unsettled spell is next weekend.... standard.

 

cheers captain!

indeed its looking like the low will take a northerly route, going off current runs which shouldnt be too bad. but when it reaches the uk is where the uncertainty creeps in. hopefully the ambiguous azores high will be our freind and build in to deflect the low from stalling over us. or it could be our enemy as is often the case in recent summers and withdraws its support, leaving us at the mercy of the jet and atlantic systems.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

FI looks unusual for early July, looks more like autumn, with deepish atlantic low and westerlies

[Captain Shortwave]

Considering we have a limpet trough over the UK, it's quite shocking to get a mainly dry day and have temperatures warmer than the last few days. 22/23C recorded widely in the south east and the showers were non-existent.

[Tony27]

where is Frosty?

[Milhouse]

The MOD isnt quite the same without his informative and enthusiastic posts

[DTHFCJ]

where is Frosty?

ive been wondering that myself,a quality poster and loved his posts last july,quality

[mushymanrob]

A much, much nicer run from the GFS this evening! Towards the end of next week (a bit of a way out at the moment, unfortunately) the GFS is hinting at the possibility for the Azores High to develop quite a strong grip on the UK. Granted it will be no July 2013, but enough for maybe a good week of warm to very warm, settled weather. Seems good enough for me!

a clear outlier though with no support.

[mushymanrob]

The big person who I miss is glacier point aka Stewart rampling, shame he left this site as he could really nail torque events and how they affect the atmosphere. He got winters 2011-12 and 2012-13 spot on.

 

he got winter 10-11 spot on...

 

but he got summer 11? wrong.too many people getting carried away with the gfs, ok it looks like getting nice for a few days this week, especially in the south.but the noaa anomaly charts 6-10 and 8-14 have consistently now suggested upper trough domination well into july. pressure might rise to our west in 10 days time or so, but after thursday for most of us its not looking very summery, and this blasted low could well bugger up the weather for some time.

[Captain Shortwave]

he got winter 10-11 spot on...

 

but he got summer 11? wrong.too many people getting carried away with the gfs, ok it looks like getting nice for a few days this week, especially in the south.but the noaa anomaly charts 6-10 and 8-14 have consistently now suggested upper trough domination well into july. pressure might rise to our west in 10 days time or so, but after thursday for most of us its not looking very summery, and this blasted low could well bugger up the weather for some time.

Looks pretty decent for longer than that. Might be Sunday when the cooler/more unsettled Atlantic air might get in so potentially 4 very warm days south of the Scottish border.

850's even on the UKMO (least settled run) are still in the 8-10C mark even on Saturday so it will feel very warm/humid in the sun.

Edited June 29, 2014 by Captain shortwave