Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

[cheese]

Can't say this has not been coming in my opinion. Since mid-May we've been in this strange pattern whereby we've had high heights over the Arctic, relatively low pressure in the Atlantic but weirdly a very weak jet which has resulted in stalling lows. While there was always the chance that a +AO would take over, so long as heights were relatively high in the Arctic, we were always going to lose eventually.

 

To keep this model related i have to say that as synoptic profiles go, this is dam near perfect..

 

Perfect.. for January. Rubbish for July.

[snow freak]

God this country never ceases to amaze me.  Not only have we just had an abysmal winter but now we have a uneventful summer too.  Even when we get high pressure, the only parts of the country which actually benefit from it are the west of the country while the rest have to be content with cloudy cool monotonous days.  I know it is early days for the summer but realistically we only have another 3 months of summer left before we head into Autumn.  If we have a rubbish summer of pathetic 'highs' like the one we have now followed by a winter like last year, i think that will finish me off.

[stainesbloke]

I have to say one thing... THIS COUNTRY'S CLIMATE IS PATHETIC! It really is! A day or two of 25°C in the height of the summer is a heat wave and one or two ice days during winter is a severe cold wave. Even more so, Autumn is just an absolutely abysmal season here. The weather is useless and dreadful and it seems to me that the Autumn colours of British trees are nowhere near as vivid as they are in Japan, North America, or even going into continental Europe.

 

The only decent season here in general is Spring. It is the most settled and usually seeing the plants bursting into life is a very nice way to signal the end to winter.

 

Though summer is generally my favourite season, I believe that in more recent years it has been ruined by the Atlantic's mild useless crap getting in the way and barging every developing high out of the way before it develops. The same goes for winter.

Tend to agree with you, especially with the vast majority of the last decade or so's rubbish weather (bar a couple of cold snow events and last July). The supposed beauty of the British climate is (was?) in its changeability. Recent years have seen patterns get 'stuck' more often and usually the stuck pattern isn't anything enjoyable or exciting. Hopefully this will change soon!

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

God this country never ceases to amaze me.  Not only have we just had an abysmal winter but now we have a uneventful summer too.  Even when we get high pressure, the only parts of the country which actually benefit from it are the west of the country while the rest have to be content with cloudy cool monotonous days.  I know it is early days for the summer but realistically we only have another 3 months of summer left before we head into Autumn.  If we have a rubbish summer of pathetic 'highs' like the one we have now followed by a winter like last year, i think that will finish me off.

I have to agree with you 100% its been awful here i went for walk to beach and it felt more like march not june the wind was so cold felt like it was only about 10 or 11c its a joke

[andy989]

Well its not doom and gloom all over the country, this is what I'm doing today....

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19958-/

same as what I've been doing all weekend along with two BBQ's and a sunburn whilst kayaking. Just thought I'd post something other than depressing gloom. Hope people. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

It's amazing being really only across the channel on the bay of biscay, there's crickets and everything featured in the med here and it's lovely and warm with unbroken sunshine and 27c!

The French and the rest of Europe really must laugh hard at us! I am at the moment and making the most of it too. It really looks quite dreadful for when I get back.

[SLAMMER]

yeah days over 23 degrees since last Wednesday here so can't complain.

[cheese]

Well its not doom and gloom all over the country, this is what I'm doing today....

 

same as what I've been doing all weekend along with two BBQ's and a sunburn whilst kayaking. Just thought I'd post something other than depressing gloom. Hope people. 

I'm afraid that is of no consolation to those of us who have not been so fortunate. In fact, it just makes it worse - a cruel reminder that you're basking in sun while it remains murky and overcast here.

 

I am going to do nothing but moan & complain until the weather improves.

Edited June 16, 2014 by cheese

[Milhouse]

Not a bad GFS 12z in all fairness bringing a rather decent weekend with some continental warmth pushing across southern England on Monday and remaining dry for most. Do i detect the Northerly is becoming rather disrupted. Hopefully the trend continues.

[andy989]

I'm afraid that is of no consolation to those of us who have not been so fortunate. In fact, it just makes it worse - a cruel reminder that you're basking in sun while it remains murky and overcast here.

 

I am going to do nothing but moan & complain until the weather improves.

Its usually the other way around for me, watching all the eventful weather on the news while I lay under cloud or westerly winds/rain. A nice change. Hang in there, your time will come

Edited June 16, 2014 by andy989

[mushymanrob]

oh dear..... the anomaly charts are shifting away from high pressure dominance and its looking there might be a shallow low anomaly nearer to hand. the ecm is awful...its a mess...i really hate messy synoptics because they usually end up being bad synoptics...unless youre a pochard.

 

if we are going to get a decent warm/hot anticyclonic spell, it should be showing around now.... whilst decent spells can evolve later in summer i find that they are very rare IF its not started by mid july. i reckon as the signes are backing off from high domination, that doesnt bode well..... oh i know the gfs has summer in fi...it always does, it did in 07,08,12 too.

 

my earlier optimism is currently being tempered somewhat.

[Chris K]

So I have read a few posts recently stating that whatever pattern sets up late June, more than likely becomes the dominant pattern for the majority of the Summer. For example, if the Jet is in a certain position late June/early July it supposedly often locks into roughly the same position until beginning of Autumn.

 

Is there any truth in this? Or is selective memory a factor here? I can understand the N hemisphere having a sort of 'Summer mode' but surely there are too many factors that come into play for things to 'set up' in this way?

Edited June 16, 2014 by Chris K

[Thundery wintry showers]

I recall reading somewhere about a statistical link between July and August weather, indicating persistence between the two months.  There are certainly a fair number of examples out there of where patterns that established in July tended to recur during August- many of the summers of the 1980s were good examples, and the summers of 1992, 1995, 1996 and 2001 are other good examples.

 

But the relationship doesn't always work- for instance take the stark contrast between July and August 2006, when the synoptic patterns that dominated for most of July were almost completely absent during August.  I also recall the summer of 2000, when many eastern parts of the country had a cold grey July but August was generally somewhat sunnier and warmer.

[ANYWEATHER]

So I have read a few posts recently stating that whatever pattern sets up late June, more than likely becomes the dominant pattern for the majority of the Summer. For example, if the Jet is in a certain position late June/early July it supposedly often locks into roughly the same position until beginning of Autumn.

 

Is there any truth in this? Or is selective memory a factor here? I can understand the N hemisphere having a sort of 'Summer mode' but surely there are too many factors that come into play for things to 'set up' in this way?

To be honest ,this is rubbish. The Climate of the Uk is always variable, at any time of year. Just look at the Summer of 1995, a very  dry second half of the summer, and given the 1990,s it was a generally warm decade, then came December  that year ,reached its coldest temperature of minus 27.2c in Scotland for a record low. We live here in the British Isles in a "Cool Temperate" climate  so its weather will always have fluctuations and variability , there is certainly no pattern yearly to our weather....

[cheese]

To be honest ,this is rubbish. The Climate of the Uk is always variable, at any time of year. Just look at the Summer of 1995, a very  dry second half of the summer, and given the 1990,s it was a generally warm decade, then came December  that year ,reached its coldest temperature of minus 27.2c in Scotland for a record low. We live here in the British Isles in a "Cool Temperate" climate  so its weather will always have fluctuations and variability , there is certainly no pattern yearly to our weather....

Well, yes, there is - summers are warmer than winter.

[andy989]

Well, yes, there is - summers are warmer than winter.

Or wetter

[I remember Atlantic 252]

only shows last 3 days of UKMO model still, been like that since end of May

[SP1986]

The iconsistency and lack of agreement, is really becoming quite frustrating now.. GFS is clearly the worst offender!

[summer blizzard]

Dare i say that heights over the Arctic (very persistent) are about to win.

[Polar Maritime]

Dare i say that heights over the Arctic (very persistent) are about to win.

 

Yes SB, The Heights over the Arctic have been strong so far this Spring, And as you say seem to be winning out. Something that has been seen recently over the past few years..

Edited June 21, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

Funny how confidence is always high when unsettled/cool conditions are shown, even at quite far out.

Given the last few months, all I can conclude is the Oxford English dictionary have changed the definition of the word "confidence". The swines 

[Evening thunder]

It's also only this mornings ECM operational I've really seen go for high pressure in the Greenland/Arctic area. Not sure that's a reliable trend, many models and ensembles keep pressure lower up there, and still do today.

[The PIT]

Somethings wrong with the GFS and has been since the winter. Keeps predicting cooler spells that never materialise. Tonight is showing plenty of chilly nights and it did for the beginning of this week which never happened. Could have had some interesting day and night ranges if they'd come off.

[Snowyowl9]

Nothing to moan about this summer so far,could do with some rain now I suppose.

Wimbledon starts and the wettest on record was 1997 and hottest 1976,well that was on TV this morning.

[mushymanrob]

So I have read a few posts recently stating that whatever pattern sets up late June, more than likely becomes the dominant pattern for the majority of the Summer. For example, if the Jet is in a certain position late June/early July it supposedly often locks into roughly the same position until beginning of Autumn.

 

Is there any truth in this? Or is selective memory a factor here? I can understand the N hemisphere having a sort of 'Summer mode' but surely there are too many factors that come into play for things to 'set up' in this way?

 

in 40 years i cannot remember a long hot summer that didnt show its hand before the end of wimbledon.  i cannot recall a average or poor first half of the summer changing around to give a hot dry sunny second half.  as i see it, the weather goes in patterns, and a jet driven atlantic pattern isnt usually one that once established, doesnt last.now im not saying that you cant get nice sunny weather in late july august after a dismal or average june/early july. but in terms of a long hot sunny spell, whilst it can happen, is rare as rocking horse do-do's.

 

 

why was my post yesterday edited for saying that if the jet fires up then the heart of summer is likely to be a washout....when another poster later made the very same point and that went unchallenged?

 

huh...i expect this post will disappear too... along with me... see ya.

Edited June 23, 2014 by mushymanrob