Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

[mushymanrob]

why oh why couldnt these upcoming synoptics happen a month ago? what a scorcher that would have been, but in september?.. nah, id sooner have autumn in autumn rather then in august and a summery heatwave in summer where it belongs.

[snowking]

why oh why couldnt these upcoming synoptics happen a month ago? what a scorcher that would have been, but in september?.. nah, id sooner have autumn in autumn rather then in august and a summery heatwave in summer where it belongs.

As somebody who would likely melt in the heat that would have brought with it a month or so ago I am rather relieved I must say, and next week actually looks quite comfortable to me with some pleasant conditions around and some reasonable temperatures.

 

However, I can understand the frustration for summer fans - it's just as annoying as last week's setup was for coldies given the time of year.

 

SK

[h2005__uk__]

What sort of heat could these model set-ups have brought a month ago then?

[Thundery wintry showers]

The near-Continent has been affected by frequent chilly northerly winds recently so there isn't that much heat to "tap into" unless we get a sustained or long-draw southerly flow, and I doubt that it would be much different had these synoptics arisen a month ago.  I think that these synoptics in early August would have given us temperatures mainly in the mid 20s, perhaps high 20s in the south-east, so quite hot but nothing outstanding.

[Mapantz]

Current projections for Late August/September 2014 bear resemblance to September 2009....

I vaguely remember some very warm/hot temperatures which then sparked off some amazing downpours here- other than that, was there something else?Ah, you're probably referring to this from January 2010..Can't upload images:http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5d/Great_Britain_Snowy.jpg/791px-Great_Britain_Snowy.jpgThat image from January 2010 is famous for two reasons, the first reason is obvious. The second is famous to me- I was probably one of a few people that actually had no snow during that period. The highest resolution image showed lush, green areas when zoomed in. I don't fancy missing out on that again! Edited August 28, 2014 by Mapantz

[snowking]

The near-Continent has been affected by frequent chilly northerly winds recently so there isn't that much heat to "tap into" unless we get a sustained or long-draw southerly flow, and I doubt that it would be much different had these synoptics arisen a month ago.  I think that these synoptics in early August would have given us temperatures mainly in the mid 20s, perhaps high 20s in the south-east, so quite hot but nothing outstanding.

 

Sure recently, but with temperatures heading towards the mid 30's back in late July in the near continent the potential for temperatures pushing towards the 30's here would certainly have been there. Anyway, all theoretical!

 

 

 

I vaguely remember some very warm/hot temperatures which then sparked off some amazing downpours here- other than that, was there something else?

 

It was more of a tongue in cheek comment with regards to the winter that followed

[mushymanrob]

What sort of heat could these model set-ups have brought a month ago then?

 

well im not so sure i agree with TWS on this, id have thought we would get temps several degrees higher by day and night, so a widespread 28-31c id have thought... maybe higher in a few favoured places.but the daylength is much more noticable a month ago, longer outside to enjoy, plus all my plants were still in full flower... the scents of the lilies, buddlia and jasmine, all part of the bigger picture that real summer produces.

[knocker]

Roller coaster...after a very good week for GFS, last batch of forecasts has had much lower skill NHEMI 500-mb 5-day pic.twitter.com/6lsHdlYBbV

 

Meanwhile, ECMWF global model seeing slight skill decline -- after a record-high run last week 0.955 500-mb NHEMI Z pic.twitter.com/TJSGGK6A0F

[cheese]

why oh why couldnt these upcoming synoptics happen a month ago? what a scorcher that would have been, but in september?.. nah, id sooner have autumn in autumn rather then in august and a summery heatwave in summer where it belongs.

As the saying goes - beggars cannot be choosers. Better to get a final spell of warm weather in September, as opposed to September being a dreary month alongside August.

[mushymanrob]

As the saying goes - beggars cannot be choosers. Better to get a final spell of warm weather in September, as opposed to September being a dreary month alongside August.

 

well i dont think august was dreary... it was cool, but mainly dry, ok crap for summer but great to work in.

[ANYWEATHER]

well i dont think august was dreary... it was cool, but mainly dry, ok crap for summer but great to work in.

Mainly dry? We have had over 4 inches of rain here so far

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Mainly dry? We have had over 4 inches of rain here so far

 

but he is in the east midlands, we are west, west midlands way wetter than E midlands

[cheese]

but he is in the east midlands, we are west, west midlands way wetter than E midlands

No it isn't.

[conor123]

Not liking this sods law trend of being nice all next week only to go downhill next weekend, thankfully still time to change but after the horrendous August a nice weekend would be welcomed considering the suns to low in September by the time I get home from work!

[Woollymummy]

Typical back-to-school weather, then buckets of rain for the last few late summer events next w/e

[Wynn D Woo]

well i dont think august was dreary... it was cool, but mainly dry, ok crap for summer but great to work in.

You keep saying this month has been dry, it hasn't. It has been a very poor August both temperature and precipitation wise. I will be very welcoming of any summery weather in September and it seems that month is better than August anyway most years.

[Tony27]

well im not so sure i agree with TWS on this, id have thought we would get temps several degrees higher by day and night, so a widespread 28-31c id have thought... maybe higher in a few favoured places. but the daylength is much more noticable a month ago, longer outside to enjoy, plus all my plants were still in full flower... the scents of the lilies, buddlia and jasmine, all part of the bigger picture that real summer produces.

the GFS 18z looks very warm to me, it will only be early september next week 28c is easily possible, you can still sit outside in your garden till about 8pm, and if you have lights in your garden you can stay out as long as you want, there isn't rule that says when it's dark you have to go to bed or sit inside and be miserable, if you have to work till late then that's your own problem if you don't work you have all day long to enjoy the weather, if snow is forecast at 3am in winter i can't stay up to watch it sadly, i don't like setting alarms for 3am

Edited August 28, 2014 by Tony27

[mushymanrob]

Mainly dry? We have had over 4 inches of rain here so far

 

 

but he is in the east midlands, we are west, west midlands way wetter than E midlands

 

... exactly. what rain weve had was in short sharp bursts (until last monday).

 

You keep saying this month has been dry, it hasn't. It has been a very poor August both temperature and precipitation wise. I will be very welcoming of any summery weather in September and it seems that month is better than August anyway most years.

 

it has here... i dont believe derby is a dry spot. i know its dry because the grass hasnt grown much as the ground is (or was until monday) dry. its been a great month for cutting grass unlike last year and previous augusts that saw huge amounts of grass growth.

 

the GFS 18z looks very warm to me, it will only be early september next week 28c is easily possible, you can still sit outside in your garden till about 8pm, and if you have lights in your garden you can stay out as long as you want, there isn't rule that says when it's dark you have to go to bed or sit inside and be miserable, if you have to work till late then that's your own problem if you don't work you have all day long to enjoy the weather, if snow is forecast at 3am in winter i can't stay up to watch it sadly, i don't like setting alarms for 3am

 

why are you STILL going on about this? youve(weve) been asked to STOP going on about this subject. why keep going on? youve said nothing new, just re-itterating the old argument. yawn.

[William of Walworth]

Not liking this sods law trend of being nice all next week only to go downhill next weekend, thankfully still time to change but after the horrendous August a nice weekend would be welcomed considering the suns to low in September by the time I get home from work!

Yes, the suggestion of a rainy breakdown (however transient) for next w/e -- that of Sat 6th September -- in SOME recent models (not all) is annoying me a fair bit as well.

 

Good weather for 'back to school' is unimportant to us (no kids, no school connections) but I appreciate that we're in the minority there. Still, that very same factor means we have lots of free weekends, and the number of times since June even, that it's been the weekends that have seen rain, even during relatively settled periods generally, is bound to impact on festival going types like us. Or other times, we're, beer sampling types -- we have places booked on a small coach for a proper beer pubs tour of the Gower for next Saturday (6th) ... NO RAIN PLEASE!! These pubs have gardens ...

 

My main wish/hope right now is that next weekend. and some other ones in Septemnber too, become more settled with any rain confined to weekdays.(Or to the North/Scotland ... )

 

Saying that, prospects for this coming weekend, Sat 30-Sun 31st -- just when we have no particular plans -- offer strong hopes that rapid improvements are coming our way so not everything's all bad.

Edited August 29, 2014 by William of Walworth

[h2005__uk__]

Grrrr.... it's  a bit disappointing that the heat's been downgraded so much. Temps in the low 20s are definitely preferable in terms of comfort, but I was hoping the models would be right and we'd get a proper burst of heat for a meteorologically interesting start to autumn - especially after the poor August.

 

Rant over.

[h2005__uk__]

Those seeking heat next month can look at this for some inspiration http://www.dandantheweatherman.com/Bereklauw/Septwarm.htm

[MP-R]

Those seeking heat next month can look at this for some inspiration http://www.dandantheweatherman.com/Bereklauw/Septwarm.htm

 

Interesting read that page! 2006 and 2011 can certainly be added to that list, and I seem to remember a few hot days in early September 2004. 

 

What the models are showing now though just looks like a standard spell of settled but not overly sunny September weather, much like the first half of September 2007.

[h2005__uk__]

Yes - doesn't look like this September will be notable for its heat. Having said that, I suspect quite a  few of those hot September days in that list came out of the blue... so you never know.

[mushymanrob]

heatlovers shouldnt get too dispondant, the heat itself might not now be likely but theres plenty of high pressure around and it wouldnt take much of a shift to bring back the hotter synoptics.

but tbh i dont care now... 

Edited August 30, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Blessed Weather]

ECM has just provided a master class in the perils of posting FI charts.

 

Last night's 12z run 850hPa chart for Mon 8th Sept "cold incoming from the north"....

 

This mornings 0z run for Tues 9th Sept "maybe not... heat incoming from the south now"....

Edited August 30, 2014 by Blessed Weather