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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Anybody wondering why we've had a bad August..

 

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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted

Some great charts showing on the GFS... for the start of August!! Bit wasted on September. Perhaps a final/warm hot spell before the unsettled regime takes over once again towards the end of the first week of September. Will have to see what future model runs show but it might be that at least the first half of September turns out considerably warmer and wetter than what we've had recently.

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Caution regarding the models as they can't even decide whether the tropical system will go into the Gulf Or Fish.

For now its worth ignoring any model from the point that the tropical system starts to phase.

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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted

Caution regarding the models as they can't even decide whether the tropical system will go into the Gulf Or Fish.For now its worth ignoring any model from the point that the tropical system starts to phase.

 

How did they handle the path of Bertha? I was away at the time not following the models.

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

How did they handle the path of Bertha? I was away at the time not following the models.

Once the Euro and GFS decided it would form they had it spot on and stuck with it.
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Tony27 Aficionado

Tony27

Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
Posted

Some great charts showing on the GFS... for the start of August!! Bit wasted on September. Perhaps a final/warm hot spell before the unsettled regime takes over once again towards the end of the first week of September. Will have to see what future model runs show but it might be that at least the first half of September turns out considerably warmer and wetter than what we've had recently.

why is it wasted in early september? because it gets dark a bit earlier now? it gets dark before 8pm in turkey you know and its 40c there

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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted

why is it wasted in early september? because it gets dark a bit earlier now? it gets dark before 8pm in turkey you know and its 40c there

 

That's very true, but also not the point I was getting at. Summer charts coming back to start autumn are like a kick in the teeth for many who were waiting for those charts in the summer holidays, only for them to turn up just as the schools go back and people finish any time off they had in August. At least last year had a more traditional end to the season with August's warm sunshine lingering into early September then more unsettled conditions taking over.

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Milhouse Seasoned

Milhouse

Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
Posted

Its daytime warmth that matters to most people so the prospect of temperatures recovering by day is most appealing.

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted (edited)

I have deleted a few posts about the Daily Fail.. Can we please only discuss Model related Banter/Moans/Ramps or at least loosely round them. There are other threads for Weather in the Media.

 

Many Thanks, PM

Edited by Polar Maritime
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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

why is it wasted in early september? because it gets dark a bit earlier now? it gets dark before 8pm in turkey you know and its 40c there

 

the same way snow in march is... your words...

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Tony27 Aficionado

Tony27

Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
Posted

there is a clear difference, snow in march is usually wasted esp here because it rarely stays below freezing all day, i've seen far more summer like weather in sept than winter like weather in march

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Thundery wintry showers Accomplished

Thundery wintry showers

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted (edited)

It depends on what you get out of snow- for me the low likelihood of lasting snow cover from a March/April wintry spell can be offset by greater potential for significant convection over the land mass, and the later in the season, the more novelty value.  I think novelty value is also a significant part of the appeal of late-season warm sunny spells such as the one in late September/early October 2011.  For those who sunburn easily there's an argument that those spells offer greater opportunities to sunbathe without needing to apply a lot of sun cream.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

there is a clear difference, snow in march is usually wasted esp here because it rarely stays below freezing all day, i've seen far more summer like weather in sept than winter like weather in march

 

depends what you call 'summer like weather' ,  and what you call 'winterlike weather' .... isnt march more frosty then december? isnt frost 'winter like'? what about march 2013? the coldest on record? when have we had a hot september that rivals that?

 

down to interpretation/perspective, i suspect that taking out our personal bias that theres probably as much 'summer like' weather in september as there is 'winter like' weather in march.

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

March 2013 was not the coldest on record.

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Regarding the track of our tropical friend its actually stronger than models forecast at 996mb so the one who initialized stronger will probably be closer to the mark.

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

March 2013 was not the coldest on record.

... hence the question mark, either way it was one of the coldest so my point stands
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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted

And back to Model related Discussion, Or loosely round them.  

 

Many thanks, PM.

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

GFS12z is too weak with our TS again, GEM is pretty much on the ball.

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stevofunnelcl Aficionado

stevofunnelcl

Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
Posted

Nothing beats a rainy bank holiday Monday, to bring out the moans in people

 

Everyone i spoke to today - 'terrible weather isn't it?'

Me: it's just a bit of rain

Them: Yeah, but on a Bank Holiday Monday

 

For frick's sake, the weather is not human, it doesn't care what people want, it'll do what it wants, and we have no control over it

 

What is the point of moaning... and yes i'm moaning about people moaning

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h2005__uk__ Enthusiast

h2005__uk__

Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Well it seems the models are hinting at high pressure building for the start of 'meteorological' autumn, and there seems to be general agreement on that which is painting a more optimistic picture than the models were showing during August.

 

There's no sign of a return to any heat (mid/high 20s) from what I can see, but I suppose that's going to be a rarity now we're fast approaching autumn.

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

Nothing beats a rainy bank holiday Monday, to bring out the moans in people

 

Everyone i spoke to today - 'terrible weather isn't it?'

Me: it's just a bit of rain

Them: Yeah, but on a Bank Holiday Monday

 

For frick's sake, the weather is not human, it doesn't care what people want, it'll do what it wants, and we have no control over it

 

What is the point of moaning... and yes i'm moaning about people moaning

heh I can't think of anyone who could describe the weather today as good. Moving lots of stuff to my new flat was horrid with persistent heavy rain.

 

Well the only way is up from today, looks like turning drier and warmer over the coming days albeit still rather mixed.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted (edited)

heh I can't think of anyone who could describe the weather today as good.

Try Terminal Moraine! And myself for that matter!  :)

 

But as you say not good weather for moving, Apart from the Rain i hope it went well.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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