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phil nw.

Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

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It is frustrating that we are getting northerlies now, when there is no meaningful cold around. I can only hope that it doesn't mean that we are left with a vile south-westerly in December.

This will be the reaction by some members if we get charts like that this winter

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First snow forecast over the Norwegian mountains, and so it begins.

 

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Met Office probably looking at the ECM 32 day model when they assert that although he obviously thinks it won't come off (fair opinion).

 

Could be

post-12275-0-83334800-1408116017_thumb.p

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.... so no settled end to summer then after all. looks like the anomaly charts called it right and the ensembles didnt.

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Anyone disheartened by the forecast currently... fear not, James Madden is still saying the models are wrong; temps 'could climb well in excess of 30C' in the South. His August 14th update also suggests high pressure will dominate and intensify as we head into Sept.

 

Still waiting for the hottest August in 300 yrs to get going. But I'm promised it's on its way, soon, hopefully, maybe....

Edited by draztik
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Anyone disheartened by the forecast currently... fear not, James Madden is still saying the models are wrong; temps 'could climb well in excess of 30C' in the South. His August 14th update also suggests high pressure will dominate and intensify as we head into Sept.

 

Still waiting for the hottest August in 300 yrs to get going. But I'm promised it's on its way, soon, hopefully, maybe....

 

i see no reason why high pressure shouldnt dominate in september, its feasible and cannot be ruled out. think we are more likely to get the coolest august in 300 years... well perhaps not the whole month but this coming week looks cold... maybe the coldest august week in 300 years? either way its just another example of long ter predictions going completely wrong.

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Anyone disheartened by the forecast currently... fear not, James Madden is still saying the models are wrong; temps 'could climb well in excess of 30C' in the South.

 

Where is he saying this?

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Where is he saying this?

http://www.exactaweather.com/site/dbd87c9789134d078e6e054bc81a4c2b/default?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.exactaweather.com%2FUK_Long_Range_Forecast.html#2820Scroll down to his august 14 update The section where he says "As we enter the final part of the month (from in or around the 20th onwards) it is likely to become exceptionally warmer and much more settled as we see a return to summer for many parts of the country. High pressure will build northwards across many parts of the country within this period and bring a significant rise in temperatures throughout the latter part of August and into early September." Edited by draztik

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i see no reason why high pressure shouldnt dominate in september, its feasible and cannot be ruled out. think we are more likely to get the coolest august in 300 years... well perhaps not the whole month but this coming week looks cold... maybe the coldest august week in 300 years? either way its just another example of long ter predictions going completely wrong.

It was looking as though high pressure would take control as early as the 20th august not so long ago; but that has all but faded. Cfs ensembles now indicating unsettled conditions will linger into Sept. Obviously an experimental model, but the swing of late is noticeable.

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http://www.exactaweather.com/site/dbd87c9789134d078e6e054bc81a4c2b/default?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.exactaweather.com%2FUK_Long_Range_Forecast.html#2820Scroll down to his august 14 updateThe section where he says "As we enter the final part of the month (from in or around the 20th onwards) it is likely to become exceptionally warmer and much more settled as we see a return to summer for many parts of the country. High pressure will build northwards across many parts of the country within this period and bring a significant rise in temperatures throughout the latter part of August and into early September."

 

Thanks. I'm not familiar with his methods but I'm aware he's provided info for the Express (enough said).

 

What does he base his forecasts on?! Not one model is remotely suggesting any significant rise in temperature; certainly not before the end of August anyway.

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Thanks. I'm not familiar with his methods but I'm aware he's provided info for the Express (enough said).What does he base his forecasts on?! Not one model is remotely suggesting any significant rise in temperature; certainly not before the end of August anyway.

He bases a lot of his forecasts on solar activity ; I note when he makes a forecast he rarely backs down. I'm wondering what he will blame for things not going to plan (certainly, at this stage, there is no sign of Temps even nearing 25 in the mid term, let alone 30+). Quite remarkable that he is still in business. Edited by draztik

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http://www.exactaweather.com/site/dbd87c9789134d078e6e054bc81a4c2b/default?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.exactaweather.com%2FUK_Long_Range_Forecast.html#2820Scroll down to his august 14 updateThe section where he says "As we enter the final part of the month (from in or around the 20th onwards) it is likely to become exceptionally warmer and much more settled as we see a return to summer for many parts of the country. High pressure will build northwards across many parts of the country within this period and bring a significant rise in temperatures throughout the latter part of August and into early September."

 

i tell you what...if by some miracle he gets it right, thats one hell of a prediction! but i doubt hes that good...is he?... maybe that transient ridge for next weekend will build significantly instead...some runs do suggest some very warm upper (again temporarily) as that shifts east and the next low pushes in from the west.  i guess IF that low stalls to our southwest, and IF the ridge builds... its possible for another heatwave in the last week of summer. but ill not be betting on that, or holding my breath!

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Terry Scholey's ( does blogs on Gav's weather vids website) has also gone for a warmer end to the month. We shall see!

post-22614-0-15755400-1408260053_thumb.j

Edited by Journogirl
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Models have now done away with the ridge, pressure won't even rise to 1020mb.

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Models have now done away with the ridge, pressure won't even rise to 1020mb.

 

it was never a strong feature anyway......

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Well, looks like that's pretty much it for Summer 2014 with regards to summery weather. Can get summery weather in September of course but the season looks to end on a rather autumnal note. Summer fans can't complain, been a pretty good summer overall I think? Thoughts now turn to Autumn. Before you know it the ramping will be starting again as the hunt begins for a bit of sleet on the Pennines at +384! I've kinda missed the craziness.

Edited by Bobby
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As this is a moan thread i think I am entitled to a good moan here,

 

Pretty tired of reading posts on this forum saying the weather is terrible in the week ahead TBH, To get bad weather in summer you need a more moist atlantic westerly wind, a dry PM northerly is never going to bring really bad weather with long sunny spells likely with some lively showers to keep convective fans happy but mainly in the east, western parts look mostly dry, the weather in the upcoming week looks very good in parts especially after mid week with actually the signs of it turning worse by Bank Holiday Sunday/Monday with horrible overcast wet weather, of course the mild fans ignore this and moan about cool sunny northerlies, today was great and 19C is expected again tomorrow, hardly cool, 10C has been recorded in August under heavy rainfall, now that would be something to moan about not 19C and sunny.

 

 

Latest UKMO T+72 hrs fax, looks very good with winds getting lighter, I think the shower risk might be downgraded this week and in light winds it will feel very summerlike in strong sunshine.

 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

Edited by Eugene
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As this is a moan thread i think I am entitled to a good moan here,

 

Pretty tired of reading posts on this forum saying the weather is terrible in the week ahead TBH, To get bad weather in summer you need a more moist atlantic westerly wind, a dry PM northerly is never going to bring really bad weather with long sunny spells likely with some lively showers to keep convective fans happy but mainly in the east, western parts look mostly dry, the weather in the upcoming week looks very good in parts especially after mid week with actually the signs of it turning worse by Bank Holiday Sunday/Monday with horrible overcast wet weather, of course the mild fans ignore this and moan about cool sunny northerlies, today was great and 19C is expected again tomorrow, hardly cool, 10C has been recorded in August under heavy rainfall, now that would be something to moan about not 19C and sunny.

 

 

Latest UKMO T+72 hrs fax, looks very good with winds getting lighter, I think the shower risk might be downgraded this week and in light winds it will feel very summerlike in strong sunshine.

 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

Lets see what happens when we get a euro high in February which brings sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-teens. I expect the response to someone saying how nice it would be would be similar to a lynch-mob :rofl:

The sunshine amounts will tell how good the week is, I suspect they might struggle,especially if there is a strong convective cap which could lead to a lot of solid stratus during the middle of the day.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Not selling it im afraid. Wheres my shorts wearing weather, my evenings warm enough to sit out, my above average temperatures :( But winds should drop light later on in the week so it should feel like summer in early afternoon when the sun is at its highest and temperatures are at their peak.

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Eugene is correct about the pleasantness of clear northwesterlies and northerlies but it's worth making clear that it is a rare occurrence at this time of the year. I'd love one in October-March but as has been proven they're a pain in the warmer half of the year as CS has outlined. Milhouse has hit the nail on the head for me really - summer is about warmth, not necessarily heat, but at least warmth. I'm sure a northwesterly would feel a lot nicer if the wind did one but that looks unlikely. The models don't show much of an anticyclonic presence in the foreseeable. I'll be looking for temperatures of at least 21C, if it can't eve get to that, then it's hardly summery personally.

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eugene is spot on this weather has been great, pleasant with sunshine and showers, people look at the charts and if they don't see a big fat high on top of us they presume its gonna be wet, dull and cool when that's not always the case, it may be a bit cool in the evenings if it's windy but not during the day, we've had 2 months of warm summery weather i'd bite your hand off for 2 months of wintry weather in winter, i guess we get spoilt i'll probably end up moaning if feb is mild even if dec and jan are cold and snowy, which it won't be cos snow is far more rare than warmth, humidity and sunshine, it's 19 months and counting since i last saw snow i won't have to wait 19 months till the next warm/hot sunny day

Edited by Tony27
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As this is a moan thread i think I am entitled to a good moan here,

 

Pretty tired of reading posts on this forum saying the weather is terrible in the week ahead TBH, To get bad weather in summer you need a more moist atlantic westerly wind, a dry PM northerly is never going to bring really bad weather with long sunny spells likely with some lively showers to keep convective fans happy but mainly in the east, western parts look mostly dry, the weather in the upcoming week looks very good in parts especially after mid week with actually the signs of it turning worse by Bank Holiday Sunday/Monday with horrible overcast wet weather, of course the mild fans ignore this and moan about cool sunny northerlies, today was great and 19C is expected again tomorrow, hardly cool, 10C has been recorded in August under heavy rainfall, now that would be something to moan about not 19C and sunny.

 

 

Latest UKMO T+72 hrs fax, looks very good with winds getting lighter, I think the shower risk might be downgraded this week and in light winds it will feel very summerlike in strong sunshine.

 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

 

sorry eugene, that bib is utter nonsense.

'mild fans'?... who here wants mild in the summer months? theres very few who relish overcast wet weather in summer, some of us like it in winter, but moaning at cool sunny northerlies whilst ignoring overcast wet weather?... really?...

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biting my tongue ... contradictory posts being made on the md thread, earlier predictions/insistances proven wrong, yet the brown nosers ignore.high time the 'like up' feature was dropped. its meaningless, most of the time they dont reflect the quality of the post but are a vote by 'fans of' for their chosen hero, even though the boards heros are often inaccurate/wrong. its a pointless feature that does nothing but serve to massage the egos of those courting popularity.

 

 

ill get my coat....

mmmmmm...... that's a paradox.  How do I now like your post??

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biting my tongue ... contradictory posts being made on the md thread, earlier predictions/insistances proven wrong, yet the brown nosers ignore.high time the 'like up' feature was dropped. its meaningless, most of the time they dont reflect the quality of the post but are a vote by 'fans of' for their chosen hero, even though the boards heros are often inaccurate/wrong. its a pointless feature that does nothing but serve to massage the egos of those courting popularity.  ill get my coat....

So very true. It's being going on for donkeys years though. Just part and parcel of the virtual online world.
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