Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

[conor123]

Which models are you referring to specifically? Are you just referring to your location?

ECM, GEM, UKMO, GFS, JMA... all of them, normally at least some scraps of hope but absolutely none on today's charts.

[Skullzrulerz]

ECM, GEM, UKMO, GFS, JMA... all of them, normally at least some scraps of hope but absolutely none on today's charts.

there's always tomorrow,the models could be completely different from today

[Polar Maritime]

there's always tomorrow,the models could be completely different from today

 

Not that different, Maybe surface detail yes. But the overwhelming signal is for below average Temps and an unsettled N/W flow. 

 

The Models are hinting at the idea of things becoming less unsettled towards the last Week of the Month, How settled for this period remains to be seen over the coming week. 

Edited August 13, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[conor123]

Trend still seems to be a continuation of April/October esque conditions for the next 10 days with a glimmer of hope for something more settled for bank holiday weekend.

If only these charts had come 6 months earlier or later, perfect Cheshire Gap streamer conditions.

[h2005__uk__]

I don't think the end of summer will be hot judging from the models (temps no higher than the low 20s from what I can see), but at least it's looking like it could be fairly settled which will be a nice way to finish the season.

Edited August 13, 2014 by h2005uk

[Thundery wintry showers]

Anyone know why the trough is having so much trouble moving east? Highs never do.

 

I think highs can have trouble heading eastwards as well- I remember plenty of spells where we had a high close to the west of Britain bringing warm dry sunny weather to the west and cooler cloudier conditions to the east, and thinking that if only the high was further east then we'd all be warm and sunny.  A notorious example kicked off the long hot summer of 1995- a mid-Atlantic high became established by the 7th, but it took until the 21st to get overhead.

 

I don't see much confidence in a settled end to August- it's a battle between the Atlantic high and the Scandinavian trough and I've seen some hints in the longer-range signals (such as the MJO) that pressure may fall to the north bringing warmer but relatively changeable conditions.  It depends on location though- south-western parts of the country are probably most likely to be influenced more closely by high rather than low pressure.

Edited August 13, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[mushymanrob]

Trend still seems to be a continuation of April/October esque conditions for the next 10 days with a glimmer of hope for something more settled for bank holiday weekend.

If only these charts had come 6 months earlier or later, perfect Cheshire Gap streamer conditions.

 

not sure about this... april has a totally different feel to it then autumn.

[conor123]

not sure about this... april has a totally different feel to it then autumn.

In fact your right, bar April 2012 I don't think there is an April that comes to mind as poor as this August if today's charts come off.

Only in August could high pressure trend westwards back into the Atlantic, you can guarantee if next week's arctic blast was in January the Azores High would be slap bang over us come +00hrs aha!

[Polar Maritime]

And yet again I have had to delete a whole bunch of Off Topic & Argumentative posts..

 

Please can we stick to Model Banter/Moaning/Ramping based discussion only.

 

Many Thanks, PM

Edited August 14, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

Looks like a pretty decent northerly blast next week.

Weather, you have failed again 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Urgh!!! Never have I seen such a dreadful looking output for August, cheers Bertha you B**tch!

[Gael_Force]

For summer lovers, the current charts are the equivalent of a last chance saloon failed easterly in February. No wonder frustrations are creeping in to the discussion.

 

Anyways, time to move on and with that in mind - a glimpse way into the future - CMC have some eye candy for DJF.

 

[phil nw.]

Looks like a pretty decent northerly blast next week.

Weather, you have failed again 

Yes i was just viewing the 850's and how far south they dig into Europe next week Captain.Should be some interesting weather somewhere around the Alps as the cold upper airi meets the warmth over S.Europe.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Phil,  Maybe even the 1st Snows on the Highlands Summits.  

[Gael_Force]

Urgh!!! Never have I seen such a dreadful looking output for August, cheers Bertha you B**tch!

 

The die was cast before Bertha appeared - she was just a symptom - not the cause.

 

Changes way above in the atmosphere and tropical circulation patterns put in motion weeks ago are the likely cause.

[Costa Del Fal]

Met Office has snow forecast for Ben Nevis on Sunday/Monday. Really stupid weather for August and up there with the worst charts I have ever seen in Summer.

 

Wrong time of year and it will never hold into Winter.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I wouldn't go quite that far.  We could be seeing charts like this:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1986/Rrea00119860826.gif

It's going to be chilly with north to north-westerly winds but I don't think we'll be getting autumnal depressions quite like that one.

[knocker]

The die was cast before Bertha appeared - she was just a symptom - not the cause.

 

Changes way above in the atmosphere and tropical circulation patterns put in motion weeks ago are the likely cause.

 

Changes in planetary wave activity?

Edited August 14, 2014 by knocker

[summer blizzard]

Changes in planetary wave activity?

 

AO has been on the negative side all summer (likely the longest stretch since early 2013) which is why the Greenland High in June prompted some of us to fear a poor summer. While we've gotten the warm summer, recent weeks have seen a marked cooling of the tropical pacific no doubt affecting things like angular momentum.

[phil nw.]

Yes Phil,  Maybe even the 1st Snows on the Highlands Summits.  

Yes PM a different world up there.I was on Cairngorm  in June and the thermometer outside the at the top Ski station was only 4C then.

Looking at the NH view that's quite a large cold pool around our side of the Arctic ready to come south.

[h2005__uk__]

Liam Dutton from Channel 4 weather has posted a blog entry about it being cool and unsettled until the end of Aug: http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/cool-unsettled-rest-august/7063

 

What he says is generally in agreement with the models, although a bit at odds with the BBC's 'hints' of a warmer spell at the end of Aug.

[summer blizzard]

Liam Dutton from Channel 4 weather has posted a blog entry about it being cool and unsettled until the end of Aug: http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/cool-unsettled-rest-august/7063

 

What he says is generally in agreement with the models, although a bit at odds with the BBC's 'hints' of a warmer spell at the end of Aug.

 

Met Office probably looking at the ECM 32 day model when they assert that although he obviously thinks it won't come off (fair opinion).

[Gael_Force]

Changes in planetary wave activity?

 

I think so, Kelvin and Rossby wave interaction. When the QBO had the big drop, change over, into east phase over the last two months it was likely that the MJO would respond by moving to the SW Indian Ocean as per studies. This signalled a change in position and wavelength for our fortunes. A clearer picture on GFS 70 and 100mb charts showed the August change from the middle of July.

 

This might all be conjecture on my part but it interests me and I'll continue to research how the science and reality play out.

[knocker]

I think so, Kelvin and Rossby wave interaction. When the QBO had the big drop, change over, into east phase over the last two months it was likely that the MJO would respond by moving to the SW Indian Ocean as per studies. This signalled a change in position and wavelength for our fortunes. A clearer picture on GFS 70 and 100mb charts showed the August change from the middle of July.

 

This might all be conjecture on my part but it interests me and I'll continue to research how the science and reality play out.

 

I'm not that well up on this but I was thinking about that recent paper on Arctic ice melt causing in effect :standing' waves. This summers weather in the US and our own fairly static weather patterns (apart from Bertha) seem to typify this.

[Gael_Force]

I'm not that well up on this but I was thinking about that recent paper on Arctic ice melt causing in effect :standing' waves. This summers weather in the US and our own fairly static weather patterns (apart from Bertha) seem to typify this.

 

Something is certainly causing standing waves - that's a long time the cold axis has been E. USA and W. Siberia. It is interesting that the UK summer has achieved most of the warmth via a very northerly high pressure rather than the more traditional Azores route. That only works in high sun, high summer mode.