Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

[Polar Maritime]

models have taken a turn for the worse (for sun/heat) with no sign of anything developing. in fact once bethas low has gone, it get replaced next weel. the noaa anomaly charts look positively cool to see the summer all but out.

 

Yes it certainly looks that way Rob, Nothing Summery showing what-so-ever. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Yes it certainly looks that way Rob, Nothing Summery showing what-so-ever. 

With the UKMO swinging to that scenario then it looks like my positivity is likely to fold

 

Last hopecast, the GEM 

If the UK/Scandi trough is the way forward then the irony of this is hilarious 

[mushymanrob]

Yes it certainly looks that way Rob, Nothing Summery showing what-so-ever. 

 

so can we write off summer now?

 

lets face it, it would be nothing short of miraculous if we got a hot spell now (before then end of summer/august) , the anomaly charts and the ops would have to be seriously wrong, the noaa 8 -14 dayer would need to be completely opposite and i cannot see that happening.just add 2014 to 2013 and 2006, to the lists of great julys that failed to carry through to august. the last great (for heat) august was now 11 years ago.... and this has compounded my dislike for the month.

[Costa Del Fal]

Yes it certainly looks that way Rob, Nothing Summery showing what-so-ever.

Wouldn't write it off yet with 19 days left! :pBut for August at least it doesn't look good I admit too. Ahh well will have to ramp up the warmth even more come next spring. Lol

[cheese]

August 2013 was quite nice - actually very nice for consistent warm weather. The average high here was nearly two degrees above the 1981-2010 average. Downside: slightly duller than average. Did reach 31C on the 1st though which is only the second time 30C has been reached here since 2006 (first time was in June 2011).

 

August 2014 is shaping up to be absolutely rubbish. No cause for joy or celebration - unless you're an airliner, since people will no doubt be flocking abroad to warmer climes, leaving this cool and rainy island behind. Lucky them.

 

Well whatever, maybe autumn will give us a heatwave like 2011 or 2006. Personally I'm starting to turn my attention towards winter since summer 2014 seems unlikely to provide anything significant in terms of warm, summery weather.

Edited August 13, 2014 by cheese

[Eugene]

I guess June/July don't count then, pretty significant if you ask me for consistent warmth, never known a summer like it for lack of fresh weather even 76/95 had some fresher nights unlike this one until this week.

 

 

Doesn't matter what the rest of August brings to most people this summer has been great.

[knocker]

Certainly agree with that in this part of the world. I'd take this summer every year.

[cheese]

I guess June/July don't count then, pretty significant if you ask me for consistent warmth, never known a summer like it for lack of fresh weather even 76/95 had some fresher nights unlike this one until this week.

 

 

Doesn't matter what the rest of August brings to most people this summer has been great

Only one day below 20C in July - and we went well over a month without a single high below 20C until the past couple of days, so yes, significant for consistent warmth. Haven't had a low below 10C in well over a month either and only two such nights in early July.

 

Still, August is shaping up to be pretty bad, so I'm gonna complain about August being rubbish. Summer 2014 as a whole  gets a high rating from me.

[matty007]

Wouldn't write it off yet with 19 days left! :pBut for August at least it doesn't look good I admit too. Ahh well will have to ramp up the warmth even more come next spring. Lol

 

Summer doesn't automatically end on September 1st. From a calender and meteorological point of view, yes. From a weather point of view, nope. September can bring some very warm or even hot weather, and has done on many previous years. Aside from that, I don't put all my faith in the charts. just because there is no sign of HP building, doesn't mean it won't. Things can change very quickly. 

 

Summer for me isn't over until well into September, and even longer sometimes, the weather doesn't work on calender dates. 

 

Writing the Summer off in early August is ridiculous. Still a long way to go in terms of warm weather.. But i do agree that it is very annoying that a month that should see the highest temperatures of the year has once again crapped on a otherwise great Summer. 

[mushymanrob]

August 2013 was quite nice - actually very nice for consistent warm weather. The average high here was nearly two degrees above the 1981-2010 average. Downside: slightly duller than average. Did reach 31C on the 1st though which is only the second time 30C has been reached here since 2006 (first time was in June 2011).

 

August 2014 is shaping up to be absolutely rubbish. No cause for joy or celebration - unless you're an airliner, since people will no doubt be flocking abroad to warmer climes, leaving this cool and rainy island behind. Lucky them.

 

Well whatever, maybe autumn will give us a heatwave like 2011 or 2006. Personally I'm starting to turn my attention towards winter since summer 2014 seems unlikely to provide anything significant in terms of warm, summery weather.

 

i didnt like last august.... after the breakdown of the hot spell we had quite alot of rain, the grass was growing like heck making it rather harder work then i should get normally... so i actually prefer this august, in the absence of sun/heat ill settle for better working conditions. i like the breezy, mainly dry, fresh conditions we have atm, assuming i can dodge the showers. grass isnt tropical either unlike last augusts.

 

I guess June/July don't count then, pretty significant if you ask me for consistent warmth, never known a summer like it for lack of fresh weather even 76/95 had some fresher nights unlike this one until this week.

 

 

Doesn't matter what the rest of August brings to most people this summer has been great.

 

strange.... i havnt noticed this summer being particually muggy, nor overly humid or 'stifling' .

 

unlike other areas ive only had 7 days of 25c+ with 28c being the top temp. given that all that was in july, its not been that good a summer. 2013 had twice as many 25c's+ ... so whilst the mean temps might be up, no one remembers mean... we remember heat.for me it wasnt a great summer, it was good, but well behind 2013, 2006, 2003, ...

[stainesbloke]

It's been a really good summer here, until now that is. We've had loads of sunshine, warmth by day and night and some great storms too! No really hot days, I think the temp topped 30C only a couple of times but it was consistently warm and sunny. My tan is the darkest since 2006 (not from sunbathing but from working outside a lot). Aug started well here too but it's gone belly up a bit, saying that practically every morning here has seen blue skies and there has been sunshine through the day in amongst the showers...a long way from 2012 yet. So, no real moaning from me, but lets see what the rest of this month brings.....

Just out of interest, when I harvested my onions from the allotment last month, they all had many layers of skin....according to my Czech mum, that's a sign of a very cold winter to come lol....

[Polar Maritime]

Again can I kindly ask for this thread to be used for Model Output based banter/moans/ramps only please. Many posts are suited to the Summer thread.

 

Many Thanks, PM

[Evening thunder]

I'd have rather the GFS and other models (was GFS, UKMO and GEM at times), solution of another low coming in from the SW which brought warmer uppers for a bit and thunder potential shown with the low was correct rather than what is now shown i.e simply a cool flow for days on end with not much weather happening.

 

But I knew ECM would be correct as it is the best model in that time frame really, did much better than GFS in the July plume, correctly predicted the very warm spell after that before other models, and then the following 'northerly toppler' better than other models.

 

Still, there could be a decent amount of sunshine and it's better than grey skies. Wouldn't mind the ECM this morning in September onwards but a bit cool now when I'd prefer to be enjoying the last of summer warmth in a proper summer month before it's too late.

[Bristawl Si]

Matt Taylor on BBC weather, just after 10.30 last night, gave a very strong hint of a "return to summer weather" towards end of August, so maybe Meto are seeing some warmth and sun for end August and into early September.

[Frosty.]

Matt Taylor on BBC weather, just after 10.30 last night, gave a very strong hint of a "return to summer weather" towards end of August, so maybe Meto are seeing some warmth and sun for end August and into early September.

The GEFS 0z mean certainly is

[MP-R]

Not great charts for August at all. If they verify August will ensure that summer 2014 comes out as moderately good here.

I'll enjoy seeing these charts a lot more in September. In fact August's weather so far would be much more welcome in September. No doubt a half hearted settled spell will develop in early September when everyone goes back to school.

Anyone know why the trough is having so much trouble moving east? Highs never do.

[Richard2901]

The outlook is absolute garbage. Grey, cool and depressing. This is shaping up to be an exceptionally bad August - possibly as dismal as 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2012 - the worst Augusts of the last 30 years here. Already 20% more rain than the monthly average and we're not even half way through. Even worse there have been just 2 dry days so far and mean pressure is running below the record low value of 1003.7mb in 1917. This follows a record low average pressure for the first 7 months of the year. The only saving grace so far has been average sunshine but with each day getting progressively more grey and sunless than the day before this is not going to last. In fact todays vile grey skies and near constant drizzle will push it below average and by this time next week a big deficit should have opened up yet again. I'm only able to write this post because for the 2nd day in a row I'm prevented from going out on my usual lunchtime walk. The weekend was looking better but that is just getting worse and worse with each model run. There really is nothing to look forward to at all just low pressure and predominantly NW'ly winds giving a string of miserable disgusting cool grey wet/drizzly days that would be appalling for October. The last few weeks of the year where it's possible to get warm sunshine are being written off completely. Summer overall has not been good. It's been rubbish. July was good but June and August both awful and overall it will end up the 7th wetter and duller than average summer out of 8. Only July has saved it from being as bad as 2007, 2011 or 2012. I would certainly rate it as worse than 2009 and 2010 maybe even 2008 on account of the revolting weekends which have been terrible. Not one completely dry weekend all summer. 2014 truly has been an "annus horribilis"   

[mushymanrob]

Matt Taylor on BBC weather, just after 10.30 last night, gave a very strong hint of a "return to summer weather" towards end of August, so maybe Meto are seeing some warmth and sun for end August and into early September.

 

...or maybe they mean that things should return to around normal after what appears to be a quite cool spell.

[hec1]

looks like that boring summer weather is leaving us at last, woop woop

[davehsug]

We could do with another ex-hurricane getting into the Atlantic & sharpish to try & change the pattern again! Interesting that the BBC forecasts are now saying that the weather looks the same for the rest of the month! A brave call, but one it's hard to disagree with the way the models look at present.

[h2005__uk__]

We could do with another ex-hurricane getting into the Atlantic & sharpish to try & change the pattern again! Interesting that the BBC forecasts are now saying that the weather looks the same for the rest of the month! A brave call, but one it's hard to disagree with the way the models look at present.

 

I'm confused about what BBC Weather (on TV) are saying - apparently a few days ago they were saying summer's over, but then last night they were apparently saying there's a posible return to summer weather at the end of the month.

 

Maybe they're just reacting to what the models are showing longer-term.

Edited August 13, 2014 by h2005uk

[IanR]

Anyone know why the trough is having so much trouble moving east? Highs never do.

It probably does not want to move east  , it want s stay around just to annoy us,

 

really though, how it came barreling across from north america at breakneck speed as though it could not get here fast enough , then set up shop in an unfavourable postion and hang around like a bad fart,  

[mushymanrob]

I'm confused about what BBC Weather (on TV) are saying - apparently a few days ago they were saying summer's over, but then last night they were apparently saying there's a posible return to summer weather at the end of the month.

 

Maybe they're just reacting to what the models are showing longer-term.

 

predictions are made based on current data, that data is subject to change especially 2 weeks ahead.

 

it was one forecaster who suggested summer is over, and in terms of heat it probably is.

[conor123]

Truly ghastly/terrible/attrocious charts today, not even one average temperature all the way out to 384hrs!

[h2005__uk__]

Truly ghastly/terrible/attrocious charts today, not even one average temperature all the way out to 384hrs!

 

Which models are you referring to specifically? Are you just referring to your location?

Edited August 13, 2014 by h2005uk