Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

[Skullzrulerz]

Must admit I was feeling a little bit optimistic after the gfs 6z run earlier today. But after tonight's showing with the ukmo now backing the gfs 12z I fear the worst for next week. Think the test at Manchester will be a near washout. Should of been going myself to the east coast cricket festival in scarborough but thankfully I cancelled that trip. And from the output tonight very glad I did. Hopefully we still may see some decent summary weather but for the next 10 days it looks wet and very autumnal.

What was the gfs 6z run like? Edited August 6, 2014 by Skulltheruler

[hec1]

oh well, bertha isnt gonna affect us much. roll on autumn, this weather is boring

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Completely off topic post in model thread gets 14 likes and a star rating! the 'like' system SUCKS! get rid of it

[johnholmes]

Completely off topic post in model thread gets 14 likes and a star rating! the 'like' system SUCKS! get rid of it

 

How can a post with charts about the weather be completely off topic?

You/I may not agree with the charts or the sentiments and conclusion but it is not off topic (I am assuming you mean the frosty post?)

[mushymanrob]

How can a post with charts about the weather be completely off topic?

You/I may not agree with the charts or the sentiments and conclusion but it is not off topic (I am assuming you mean the frosty post?)

 

i think the one he was referring to didnt have any charts on... but was a bit of banter?...i agree about the rating system though as i alluded to previously. its easy to get a star rating (if it really means that much to anyone), just go on there and blatantly ramp up heat/cold (season dependant).

[Gael_Force]

i think the one he was referring to didnt have any charts on... but was a bit of banter?...

i agree about the rating system though as i alluded to previously. its easy to get a star rating (if it really means that much to anyone), just go on there and blatantly ramp up heat/cold (season dependant).

 

I believe the record number of likes went to a three letter acronym for a surprised expletive - need one say more !!

 

Back to the models :-

 

HIRLAM high res at T+72

 

The uncertainty is in the interaction with the jetstream - nice tutorial here about the processes that will come into play.

Near the bottom of the piece if anybody wants to skim through.

 

http://www.geologywales.co.uk/storms/upthere.htm

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM is wrong for Sunday, GFS likely correct here making a washout Sunday, due to Bertha

[h2005__uk__]

What happened to the model run that indicated hot weather in about 10 days? Was that just a random one that should be ignored for now?

[ANYWEATHER]

What happened to the model run that indicated hot weather in about 10 days? Was that just a random one that should be ignored for now?

Hi , yes it should be ignored , there is no model concesus to show hot conditions , quite the opposite      

[mushymanrob]

What happened to the model run that indicated hot weather in about 10 days? Was that just a random one that should be ignored for now?

 

a classic example of a cherry picked chart that showed without full explaination that it was only 1 option, and was in fi, so was unlikely to varify. this is why imho bias is wrong and misleading. whilst most of us more seasoned weather fans realise its true validity...ie probably wont varify... many other less experienced viewers get the wrong impression... especially when the post itself is made by a poster whos others posts are great posts so is seen as an accurate poster.

 

the point is, dont take one (or even more) that far ahead as likely to become reality unless it has cross model support (especially from the anomaly charts).

[mushymanrob]

oh no... goodbye summer (heat) 

 

this looks like being the last hot day of the current spell, and the way the models are trending (away from high pressure) its not looking like there will be a return to heat in the next couple of weeks at the earliest.still the 'average' outlook aint bad and at least we have enjoyed a hot spell (even if most of us missed out on the real high temps) which is more then can be said for many summers recently.

 

 

yeah well.... i was wrong, its not going to be average, itll be below average. interestingly the man on news 24 has just said effectively that summer is over as a cooler northwesterly regime is in place (or will be) for the rest of august, and some places will be wetter then average. the current runs support this and the noaa anomaly chart supports that too.

 

 

i dont accept the old mantra 'theres plenty of time left yet'... because the building blocks for an evolution for a hot spell simply isnt there. when the recent hot spell went 2 weeks ago, so did the general synoptics that could have lead to a 'rinse and reload' situation. it was the noaa anomaly charts that correctly predicted a controling upper trough to our northwest, and now they have shifted to having one to our north and northeast.i hate to say 'i told you so' and i wouldnt if i hadnt got so much flack... but...

[TonyH]

But the end of August is FI and could well improve, and then there is September which can provide excellent Summer weather.

[draztik]

But the end of August is FI and could well improve, and then there is September which can provide excellent Summer weather.

In terms of appreciable heat, time is fast running out. Only James Madden is continuing to suggest 30C by months end is still on the cards. Those that want to bang the drums of heat based on nothing more than hope - then by all means, enjoy!

GEFS temp anom days 0-16 0z

Edited August 9, 2014 by draztik

[TonyH]

Not on about 30c heat just decent 23c plus stuff will be fine

Not a hopecast very likely to happen even in September and in any event I shall get as much pleasure from wet and windy as warm and sunny (as a rain nut)!

Edited August 9, 2014 by TonyH

[Mapantz]

What happened to the model run that indicated hot weather in about 10 days? Was that just a random one that should be ignored for now?

That was a significant outlier.

[Gael_Force]

But the end of August is FI and could well improve, and then there is September which can provide excellent Summer weather.

 

September warmth is a lovely bonus but of no use to those having to holiday, in August weather more akin to October,  while schools are out.

[TonyH]

Dont bother me not working no holidays

Edited August 9, 2014 by TonyH

[mushymanrob]

But the end of August is FI and could well improve, and then there is September which can provide excellent Summer weather.

true, my earlier ramblings are based on the current outputs and they could change for the better.i hope they do, im no fan of autumnal type weather. as for september.... yes it could be ok for temps alone, if temps are all you require to be content. but as ive fully explained previously, thats only one element of summer that fills my needs. i like a full banquet not a maccy d's lol

[Tony27]

 

i hate to say 'i told you so' and i wouldnt if i hadnt got so much flack... but...

you told us what? that you thought we wouldn't get a 1976 style summer? kudos to you,

 

well im happy with the cooler spell coming up this week it's about time, who knows it might get hot again in a couple of weeks it's easily possible you know 

Edited August 9, 2014 by Tony27

[Captain Shortwave]

In terms of appreciable heat, time is fast running out. Only James Madden is continuing to suggest 30C by months end is still on the cards. Those that want to bang the drums of heat based on nothing more than hope - then by all means, enjoy!

GEFS temp anom days 0-16 0z

30C is still achievable up to the end of September, so plenty of time yet and September usually gives one spell wher 25C+ is reached, just due to the nature of the month where we see a lull between August and the true Autumn season in October and September. 

[h2005__uk__]

Someone in another thread (think the post was deleted as it was off-topic) said a BBC weatherman said summer's over because the UK will be the target of north-westerlies for the rest of the month. Seems a bit odd for a meterologist to make that claim, especially as there's still over 3 weeks of summer left and the models are hinting at a possible warming up later on. Plus of course September can bring real summer weather (although I appreciate that September is meteorologically no longer summer.)

Edited August 9, 2014 by h2005uk

[TonyH]

Doubt a meteorologist would make that claim TBH.

May and September belong to the 'Extended Summer'

Edited August 9, 2014 by TonyH

[mushymanrob]

you told us what? that you thought we wouldn't get a 1976 style summer? kudos to you,

 

well im happy with the cooler spell coming up this week it's about time, who knows it might get hot again in a couple of weeks it's easily possible you know 

 

YOURE the one that laughed at that claim! , if youd just accepted it like most others as an opinion and not tried to belittle it there would be no argument. and it wasnt just a 76 style summer... it was any long hot summer so stop trying to highlight the most extreme summer weve had.

 

Doubt a meteorologist would make that claim TBH.

May and September belong to the 'Extended Summer'

 

 

 

and its ironic that your first line contradicts your second!

Edited August 10, 2014 by mushymanrob

[mushymanrob]

Someone in another thread (think the post was deleted as it was off-topic) said a BBC weatherman said summer's over because the UK will be the target of north-westerlies for the rest of the month. Seems a bit odd for a meterologist to make that claim, especially as there's still over 3 weeks of summer left and the models are hinting at a possible warming up later on. Plus of course September can bring real summer weather (although I appreciate that September is meteorologically no longer summer.)

 

that was me... thats what the news 24 met guy said. hes said it again this morning. he was basing his views on what the data is saying.  it might change, there might be 3 weeks of summer left, but we can get a pretty good idea of the general synoptic pattern, and all the indicators show that theres likely to be an upper trough close to our north/northeast that will be the driver of our weather for the next two weeks.now whilst that leaves 1 week for something decent, things would have to change, the pattern, and that should be seen first in the anomaly charts. there are currently no signes of any serious settling down, although that doesnt mean we wont get a few nice days, it just means that theres no spell of settled weather other then in hopefuls heads!

Edited August 10, 2014 by mushymanrob

[Eugene]

Doubt a meteorologist would make that claim TBH.

May and September belong to the 'Extended Summer'

 

Mays average temps aren't much higher than October so I definitely wouldn't call that extended summer as snow isn't unheard of in the north just like I wouldn't call November part of the extended winter as its still too mild, September you maybe right but the long nights and potentially foggy mornings don't feel like summer to me more like early autumn.