Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

August to be hottest on record, a quote from Piers Corbyn,[ weather action],  backed up by Jonathan Powell [ vantage weather services], both of which i have never heard of, and i guess for a reason that there forecasts are rubbish, lol

 

Lol, the dynamic duo. Just needs Ice Floe Madden to complete the team. 

 

There was a possible suggestion at one point that Bertha could stall over the Bay of Biscay and pump some heat our way, but that's off the table now it seems.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

Aside from the Express drivel, the only reference I've seen to any heat on the horizon was some of the models which were/are hinting at some warmth after Bertha has been dealt with. I think it's getting late in the day for any prolonged hot spells for the remainder of the summer, but there's surely the chance of a few more very hot days? Even September sometimes has them. Hopefully the models will reveal more post-Bertha.

Good post, there were quite a few charts just yesterday showing a settling down and warming up after Bertha moves through. So to 'write off' the rest of Summer now is a bit rash, I don't think we'll know any details for the next week or two until this weekend.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

August to be hottest on record, a quote from Piers Corbyn,[ weather action],  backed up by Jonathan Powell [ vantage weather services], both of which i have never heard of, and i guess for a reason that there forecasts are rubbish, lol

 

ahh yes... so they did. :)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Good post, there were quite a few charts just yesterday showing a settling down and warming up after Bertha moves through. So to 'write off' the rest of Summer now is a bit rash, I don't think we'll know any details for the next week or two until this weekend.

 

are there?... where? have you seen the latest (12z) gfs?... lol... if thats anything like correct the chances of anything much above average and settled are very remote.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

All I know is another washout Sunday, these 'storms' always arrive on a Sunday, Xynthia, child of Nadine

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

are there?... where? have you seen the latest (12z) gfs?... lol... if thats anything like correct the chances of anything much above average and settled are very remote.

That's if the GFS is right about Sunday, let alone next week. For contrasting opinions, the UKMO shows the south having a fine and warm Sunday compared to the write off from the GFS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

Posted ImagePosted Image

gefs height anom. days 0-16, temp anom days 4-9

Trough dominated run from the gfs ensembles tonight. With very little for one to add. Summer on hold according to this model.

Edited by draztik
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

That's if the GFS is right about Sunday, let alone next week. For contrasting opinions, the UKMO shows the south having a fine and warm Sunday compared to the write off from the GFS.

one possible day for the south though isnt settling down and warming up. the exact track of bertha might be in doubt but its general track will impact on the uk. theres no sign of it settling down on any run.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

are there?... where? have you seen the latest (12z) gfs?... lol... if thats anything like correct the chances of anything much above average and settled are very remote.

No point getting your knickers in a twist about the current dire GFS output post Bertha...at the moment FI is about 2-3 days! Ok, ECM and GFS today agree somewhat on a colder, less settled outlook (which I really hope is wrong) but tomorrow or Thu? Like I said before, trying to predict conditions a week away are futile at the moment with Bertha in the mix, more runs needed etc etc. Edited by stainesbloke
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

It would be a shame if 'Bertha' fades away just like on the ECMWF 12Z run. I'm sure that fella wouldn't bring that much wind and rain really...  :pardon:

 

post-10703-0-22952600-1407277974_thumb.j

 

(although the 18Z GFS does seem keen for Bertha to visit the middle/Northern parts of the UK (coming in from the South-West).

 

post-10703-0-30151400-1407278078_thumb.p

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Posted ImagePosted Image

gefs height anom. days 0-16, temp anom days 4-9

Trough dominated run from the gfs ensembles tonight. With very little for one to add. Summer on hold according to this model.

Would love to see the charts when warmer drier conditions are expected too for balance but alas we rarely seem to get them, only a flood of them when LP is involved which is a shame. Both just as interesting and discussion worthy.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

No point getting your knickers in a twist about the current dire GFS output post Bertha...at the moment FI is about 2-3 days! Ok, ECM and GFS today agree somewhat on a colder, less settled outlook (which I really hope is wrong) but tomorrow or Thu? Like I said before, trying to predict conditions a week away are futile at the moment with Bertha in the mix, more runs needed etc etc.

 

...but the unsettled gfs is supported solidly by the anomaly charts, theres absolutely no sign of anything that could lead to a settled warm up . suggesting fi is 2-3 days away doesnt validate a possible settling down. now it cannot be ruled out with any certainty, but the current outputs would have to change markedly in order for this to possibly evolve. that doesnt rule out a nice warm sunny day here or there either, but 'settled' is surely longer then an odd day!

Edited by mushymanrob
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

No point getting your knickers in a twist about the current dire GFS output post Bertha...at the moment FI is about 2-3 days! Ok, ECM and GFS today agree somewhat on a colder, less settled outlook (which I really hope is wrong) but tomorrow or Thu? Like I said before, trying to predict conditions a week away are futile at the moment with Bertha in the mix, more runs needed etc etc.

We had weeks of very warm weather in June and July, so August is showing more of a traditional British summer with some fine weather but wet weather at times. The recent run of more prolonged settled and very warm weather cannot go on and on, after all his is the Uk! We done very well this year, and even if August is a write off as summer weather is concerned, we have not done bad at all. Just a mention on the model output today and it does look that low pressure will be dominating the scene for quite a while....... :closedeyes:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

Would love to see the charts when warmer drier conditions are expected too for balance but alas we rarely seem to get them, only a flood of them when LP is involved which is a shame. Both just as interesting and discussion worthy.

When such charts exist, I'd be happy to follow this up. And this is quite laughable. The majority of folk post hp dominated charts when hp is the form horse. As soon as lp is shown on charts, and is posted, it's scorned upon. You can't win :) Edited by draztik
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

We had weeks of very warm weather in June and July, so August is showing more of a traditional British summer with some fine weather but wet weather at times. The recent run of more prolonged settled and very warm weather cannot go on and on, after all his is the Uk! We done very well this year, and even if August is a write off as summer weather is concerned, we have not done bad at all. Just a mention on the model output today and it does look that low pressure will be dominating the scene for quite a while....... :closedeyes:

Absolutely, that's a fair point. The model output being shown currently for the next week or so isn't my cup of tea as I love the heat and sun but we certainly cannot complain about summer so far, especially in the S. I do think people are frustrated by another poor looking August though, it has been some time since we've seen a hot one. But my original point was that until Bertha is correctly modelled, there will be a lot of uncertainty about subsequent output.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

well the anomaly charts dont seem to be affected by bertha, their evolution over the past few days is pretty clear and several posts on the md thread have mentioned this. for the forseeable, through mid august, its unsettled..... unfortunately. i see frosty has found some warmth later on, but currently thats unsupported and only 1 run.... i wish we could 'bank' it, but we cant and its likely to be gone the next run.

 

nobody would like some more 25c+ days then me, ive only had 7 this year (unlike other areas) but going off current model outputs, there little hint on anything that might bring about a hot evolution. :( .... tbh im pretty resigned now to heat being unlikely again this year. my scented plants are just about past it, so any heat we do get wont be as enjoyable as it would have been earlier.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

i see frosty has found some warmth later on, but currently thats unsupported and only 1 run.... i wish we could 'bank' it, but we cant and its likely to be gone the next run.

It's also quite an outlier. :\
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire

well the anomaly charts dont seem to be affected by bertha, their evolution over the past few days is pretty clear and several posts on the md thread have mentioned this. for the forseeable, through mid august, its unsettled..... unfortunately. i see frosty has found some warmth later on, but currently thats unsupported and only 1 run.... i wish we could 'bank' it, but we cant and its likely to be gone the next run.

 

nobody would like some more 25c+ days then me, ive only had 7 this year (unlike other areas) but going off current model outputs, there little hint on anything that might bring about a hot evolution. :( .... tbh im pretty resigned now to heat being unlikely again this year. my scented plants are just about past it, so any heat we do get wont be as enjoyable as it would have been earlier.

i'd be very happy if i had 7 days with maxes of 0c or below this winter, though i won't enjoy a blizzard in mid feb if blossom is on the trees and the daffs are out (sarcasm)

 

btw it hardly rained here at all last night, people see a bit of low pressure on the charts and always assume it's gonna be a washout, more rain is forecast for friday but we'll see if it actually rains properly which it hasn't done here for quite sometime now

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

i'd be very happy if i had 7 days with maxes of 0c or below this winter, though i won't enjoy a blizzard in mid feb if blossom is on the trees and the daffs are out (sarcasm)

 

btw it hardly rained here at all last night, people see a bit of low pressure on the charts and always assume it's gonna be a washout, more rain is forecast for friday but we'll see if it actually rains properly which it hasn't done here for quite sometime now

 

.... but would you be as happy if you had 7 days of temps 0c or below whilst other areas had 2 or 3 times as many and got it more severe?

 

anyway if you are suggesting im not allowed to mention 7 days of heat because you got no frost days this winter? note it wasnt even a moan!

 

we got plenty of rain here, the grounds pretty sodden again now. the thing is about recent rains...its been pretty patchy as to who got what. some places got very little out of the showery thundery weather...other places got flooded out. as for the models, its slowly becoming more unsettled and low pressure dominated. it shoul;dnt be a washout and only the uber pesimists think that anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Yup model ens means show the upper trough affecting the UK for at least another week,somewhat longer than first thought a few days ago maybe?

Of course there will be some brighter interludes between the fronts but mixed to say the least with temperatures nearer to normal .

 

For the time being though the continental heat which gave many southern areas above average readings finally draining away over the weekend by the looks.

Just a hint into mid-month that the pattern moves east with some rebuild of the Azores high but tenuous signs for now.

I would like one last spell or so of sun and warmth before the end of Summer and the last week or 10days to include the BH would suite most i would think.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

i see the star of popularity gets awarded to anyone who ramps up what the summer (or winter lovers in winter) lovers want to hear... whilst detailed analysis that paint a more realistic picture (and not so warm/sunny)  get far fewer.

 

isnt it really time to ditch these ?

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

i see the star of popularity gets awarded to anyone who ramps up what the summer (or winter lovers in winter) lovers want to hear... whilst detailed analysis that paint a more realistic picture (and not so warm/sunny)  get far fewer.

 

isnt it really time to ditch these ?

I must disagree with this, some of the most popular posters I have seen on here are very informative and objective in their postings. Tamara road is one example. Of course it would be better if the general trend was more aligned with this.

Oh something model related

Posted Image

Oh balls......  :doh:

Edited by Captain shortwave
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

I must disagree with this, some of the most popular posters I have seen on here are very informative and objective in their postings. Tamara road is one example. Of course it would be better if the general trend was more aligned with this.

Oh something model related

Posted Image

Oh balls......  :doh:

 

well true, i take your point that not all detailed posters are overlooked, and i suppose it depends what the 'up' arrow is for.... a thumbup for something you want to hear or an appreciation for the thought, detail, and unbiased account ie the quality of the post.

 

this can be highlighted by one of  frostys upbeat enthusiastic post earlier today that highlighted a deep fi hot chart against say 'im dreaming of s' fuller more detailed realistic post that doesnt paint such a happy picture.

 

possibly to a casual onlooker an optimistic  type post could give a false impression of what might lie ahead and its popularity appears to validate it.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Can we please keep this discussion around the Models, And not other members.

Many Thanks, PM

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Must admit I was feeling a little bit optimistic after the gfs 6z run earlier today. But after tonight's showing with the ukmo now backing the gfs 12z I fear the worst for next week. Think the test at Manchester will be a near washout. Should of been going myself to the east coast cricket festival in scarborough but thankfully I cancelled that trip. And from the output tonight very glad I did. Hopefully we still may see some decent summary weather but for the next 10 days it looks wet and very autumnal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...