Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

[mushymanrob]

Alot of people are looking forward to some cooler fresher but still warm weather, nobody is hardly going to suffer with daytime temps of 22C/23C.

jeez..... we have only had a week of temps c25-6, its hardly been really hot. would you tell coldies the same thing? be content with temps 2/3c ?there is a difference between those few degrees which only heat lovers understand. .... eg 22c not really warm enough to relax in thepool.... 25c is perfect.

[CongletonHeat]

jeez..... we have only had a week of temps c25-6, its hardly been really hot.would you tell coldies the same thing? be content with temps 2/3c ?there is a difference between those few degrees which only heat lovers understand. .... eg 22c not really warm enough to relax in thepool.... 25c is perfect.

 

Do you have a pool? a drop down to 22/23 won't bother me in the least as long as we still get some sun, actually to me 30c is better for the pool or sea.

[William of Walworth]

Well might live to regret it but just cancelled my week away at scarborough cricket festival. Looking at the output and ensembles think they might not be much cricket played that week. Looks like another nasty August could be on the cards. Looks like the cold over the states again is about to fire up the Atlantic. So instead of getting soaked all week decided to stay home and work.

 

I'm allowed to do this because it's not the main model olutput thread where even the slightest frustrated post in reaction to selective trough rampers is denounced as 'offtopic'

 

Stop, just stop, writing off August,. And please, if you MUST try and do that, try just a little bit harder to conceal your very obvious delight in ramping up a breakdown.

 

Your desparation for unsettled/autumnal/terrible weather is obvious enough, even to realistic pessimists like me.

 

 JUST STOP IT!!

Edited July 24, 2014 by William of Walworth

[William of Walworth]

Would also quite like to be stopped the general summertime habit on model analysis threads (either here or on the other main one) of assuming that breakdown rampers are being realistic, and that settledness predictors are being overoptimistic.

 

There've been plenty of occasions when serial pessimists have been taken aback (although trough lovers/Atlantic Low-wishers/breakdown merchants of this kind are rarely prepared to admit it openly) by how robust High Pressure influence can sometimes be able to persist ...

[mushymanrob]

Do you have a pool? a drop down to 22/23 won't bother me in the least as long as we still get some sun, actually to me 30c is better for the pool or sea.

 

only an inflatable 'quick up' pool... but it serves its purpose.

 

22c in bright sun and calm conditions and the pool is useable, but if theres a breeze or cloud then it becomes not so pleasant.

 

30c is better then 25c, even without bright sun. i can use the pool at night with that sort of heat, and its a very pleasant experience and a very rare one. this is why 22/3c WONT do for me, pleasant though it is.

[snowy owl]

Can anyone advise what bearing this cool down will have on Scandinavian weather? I presume from my little knowledge of the charts a cool down there also?

[snow freak]

what is it with this stubborn fog in Northampton that refuses to budge until mid day.  we're not even near the east coast for heaven's sake.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM good, wrong perhaps? no heat on there away from SE,

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I don't have a problem with next weeks weather . Forecasting sunny intervals and a high of around 22C every day. That is just about perfect!

The last few days have been a little too warm for me. The cool down will be a welcome relief!

Edited July 25, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[I remember Atlantic 252]

no hot weather on models good!

 

but I do feel a bit like the Gaz1985 of summer, but I'm not on to wind heat lovers up, can understand people liking summer, most I know do

Edited July 26, 2014 by IrememberAtlantic252

[mushymanrob]

oh no... goodbye summer (heat) 

 

this looks like being the last hot day of the current spell, and the way the models are trending (away from high pressure) its not looking like there will be a return to heat in the next couple of weeks at the earliest.still the 'average' outlook aint bad and at least we have enjoyed a hot spell (even if most of us missed out on the real high temps) which is more then can be said for many summers recently.

[stainesbloke]

A cooler and perhaps wetter week to come by the looks of things, might not feel too bad if temps stay at least at average. We could do with some rain here but hopefully the warmth and sun will be back ASAP. Going to a festival 15-17 Aug and camping there so won't be impressed with cold drizzle!!

[William of Walworth]

A cooler and perhaps wetter week to come by the looks of things, might not feel too bad if temps stay at least at average. We could do with some rain here but hopefully the warmth and sun will be back ASAP. Going to a festival 15-17 Aug and camping there so won't be impressed with cold drizzle!!

 

Beautiful Days down Devon-way maybe? Or is it V?

 

We're due for festavals for the next three weekends (including that of Sat 16th August). Cheshire, Shropshire and S Devon respectively. Absolutely not the right time for conditions to turn more unsettled, and that's exactly what's currently suggested for next Thursday or Friday.

 

Hence my losing it a tad the other day on this thread with 'writer offers' of August -- apologies for that, but some posters do seem almost to take pleasure in ramping up unsettled for periods of weeks on end once the models turn more unsettled for a few days from now!

 

But nothing's nailed on for later than this coming week yet, or at least not beyond next weekend. I'm praying for a swift return to HP influence, and that's by no means impossible in FI. Who knows?

Edited July 27, 2014 by William of Walworth

[Eugene]

no hot weather on models good!

 

but I do feel a bit like the Gaz1985 of summer, but I'm not on to wind heat lovers up, can understand people liking summer, most I know do

 

 

According to Stodge's scale we haven't had any hot weather this summer at all

 

 

 

Morning all

 

Before I look at the models, one of the problems on this Forum is the use of subjective terminology such that one man's "Hot" is another man's "Warm" and throwing terms like that around without context often causes misunderstandings.

 

So, for me the following scale applies:

 

20-25c: Average to Warm

25-30c: Warm to Very Warm

30-35c: Very Warm to Hot

35-40c: Hot to Exceptionally Hot

40c+: Which way is the fridge ?

 

Back to the output and a confused and confusing picture this morning as the established pattern shifts around so let's see what the new month brings:

 

http://modeles.meteo...gfs-0-132.png?0

 

GFS 00Z Operational for next Friday afternoon and a very shallow LP over the country so a likelihood for downpours but still warm enough. The Azores HP is in full retreat.

 

http://www.meteociel...1-144.GIF?27-12

 

ECM 00Z Operational at a similar time. Not good for sun and heat fans to be honest but storm fans could do well from that.

 

http://modeles.meteo...em-0-132.png?00

 

GEM 00Z - different again, winding up quite a little storm to the SW which would bring a lot of rain and possibly even gales,

 

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?27-07

 

UKMO - closest to ECM at that time.

 

All in all, looking unsettled - not cool in the south but with rain or showers never too far away. Oddly enough, I've seen comments that August can be a very wet month.

Edited July 27, 2014 by Eugene

[Scorcher]

According to that scale Eugene, we almost never get 'hot' weather in this country, in fact if that scale were correct hot weather would only really occur in the SE! 30C 'very warm' as opposed to hot?

[mushymanrob]

well i call 25c+ 'hot'.

 

talking of 25c.... its not looking good this morning for more 25c's... the 00z gfs suggests a westerly regime well into august with little chance of that pattern breaking.... yes its one run, BUT it has solid support from the anomaly charts which show a strong upper trough close to the uk and dictating our options for the next 2+ weeks.

 

its already feeling autumnal this chilly morning, with that scent of rotting vegetation in the air. as my lilies , jasmine, and most buddlia be finished by the time any heat might evolve...for me, summers over.

 

but at least i enjoyed 9 decent days, 7 of which were by my definition 'hot'.

[Scorcher]

 

 

its already feeling autumnal this chilly morning, with that scent of rotting vegetation in the air. as my lilies , jasmine, and most buddlia be finished by the time any heat might evolve...for me, summers over.

 

 

Although I share your preferences for warmth, I can't agree on this- it's only July 28th and I haven't picked up this scent you talk about. It's already 19C here this morning so if that's autumnal, most days in June here were also autumnal!

[cheeky_monkey]

According to that scale Eugene, we almost never get 'hot' weather in this country, in fact if that scale were correct hot weather would only really occur in the SE! 30C 'very warm' as opposed to hot?

Interestingly in Canada they classify hot days as anything 30c and above. Perversely cold days are classified as below -30c..so a place like Calgary gets 3-6 hot days a year and 3-6 cold days a year.

[terrier]

Well looking at everything on the charts I'm glad I've cancelled my trip to scarborough cricket festival week commencing 9th August. The Atlantic certainly looks like firing up again can't see much play at all that week. Not looking like a good August at all.

[Tony27]

lol we will probably end up having another heatwave that week now you cancelled your trip

Edited July 28, 2014 by Tony27

[terrier]

lol we will probably end up having another heatwave that week now you cancelled your trip

very much doubt it first two weeks of August looking like a total washout.

[cheese]

very much doubt it first two weeks of August looking like a total washout.

Utter nonsense as per usual

[Milhouse]

Well looking at everything on the charts I'm glad I've cancelled my trip to scarborough cricket festival week commencing 9th August. The Atlantic certainly looks like firing up again can't see much play at all that week. Not looking like a good August at all.

 

You may regret that decision. Anyone who has a bit of knowledge about the weather knows that you can not predict what its going to be like in 12 days time.

Edited July 28, 2014 by Milhouse

[terrier]

Utter nonsense as per usual

you not seen the charts I take it? Right out to fi it's rain pretty much right through the run .

[Summer Sun]

very much doubt it first two weeks of August looking like a total washout.

 

GFS precipitation totals to the 5th suggesting most parts of England won't see much rain 7mm to 15mm on average lower in some spots and a bit more in the south west

 

Edited July 28, 2014 by Summer Sun