Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

[Milhouse]

Stunning ECM12z with at least another 10 days of summery conditions if it was to verify. This summer is turning out really good.

[phil nw.]

Stunning ECM12z with at least another 10 days of summery conditions if it was to verify. This summer is turning out really good.

Just the sort of post we are looking for in here Milhouse.

 

Yes agree looking pretty warm and settled for much of the next week and now recent runs suggesting more anticyclonic conditions persisting beyond.I hope it verifies and continues this very decent Summer.

Edited July 20, 2014 by phil nw.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

So if tonights' charts verify exactly as shown, will July 2014 be rivalling July 2013 and July 2006 as best July for years?

Edited July 20, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Terminal Moraine]

I rarely moan about the weather but I feel that, just once, someone should hear my howl of pain as I view the current model output, particularly the ECM.

I can just about live with the heat if it results in thundery deluges of biblical proportions but the prospect of more than a week of dry anticyclonic warmth ( I hesitate to say tediousness! ) is more than I can be expected to tolerate in silence.

[NickyB]

I'm praying that today's output comes to fruition. I'm booked in for my annual caravan week in North Wales from 26th (can't afford anything where I'm guaranteed warmth and sunshine). Please please Weather Gods grant me today's output!

[mushymanrob]

I rarely moan about the weather but I feel that, just once, someone should hear my howl of pain as I view the current model output, particularly the ECM.I can just about live with the heat if it results in thundery deluges of biblical proportions but the prospect of more than a week of dry anticyclonic warmth ( I hesitate to say tediousness! ) is more than I can be expected to tolerate in silence.

haha, we will be hearing alot from you then in the next few days!

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I'm praying that today's output comes to fruition. I'm booked in for my annual caravan week in North Wales from 26th (can't afford anything where I'm guaranteed warmth and sunshine). Please please Weather Gods grant me today's output!

I really hope so too as I am unable to take a summer holiday this year. Looks like you won't need to go abroad this year for the sun! ;-)

[I remember Atlantic 252]

No ECMWF 12Z tonight ppl?

[Summer Sun]

No ECMWF 12Z tonight ppl?

 

Ryan Maue â€@RyanMaue  6m

 

ECMWF reports their 12z model suite will be a "few hours late"...

[damianslaw]

ECM remains bullish with the anticyclonic conditions prevailing through to the end of the month. GFS however, shows a breakdown over the weekend with the atlantic returning as heights anchor themselves to the SW again - much as we saw early on in the summer - hardly washout conditions indeed southern and eastern parts would most likely stay fine and warm.

 

The weekend looks a bit messy with  slack airflow set up, hence the forecasts for heavy shows.

 

Too early to call how things are likely to pan out - certainly looks like this July is going to give last July a good running, but I suspect July 2013 will just edge it both in terms of dryness and warmth. Still its good to be experiencing some proper summer weather two years in a row, after a barren run of 6 between 2007 and 2012.

[mushymanrob]

ECM remains bullish with the anticyclonic conditions prevailing through to the end of the month. GFS however, shows a breakdown over the weekend with the atlantic returning as heights anchor themselves to the SW again - much as we saw early on in the summer - hardly washout conditions indeed southern and eastern parts would most likely stay fine and warm.

 

The weekend looks a bit messy with  slack airflow set up, hence the forecasts for heavy shows.

 

Too early to call how things are likely to pan out - certainly looks like this July is going to give last July a good running, but I suspect July 2013 will just edge it both in terms of dryness and warmth. Still its good to be experiencing some proper summer weather two years in a row, after a barren run of 6 between 2007 and 2012.

 

i dont think this july can match last july... last july the warm spell started early and stuck for around three and a half weeks.

this warm spell is less then a week old so logistically 2014 cant match 2013. lol.

[William of Walworth]

Stunning ECM12z with at least another 10 days of summery conditions if it was to verify. This summer is turning out really good.

Just back from a chunk of time away to catch up.

 

Warmth and sunlover that I am, I absolutely love seeing this sort of post and the charts that justify them. Unfortunately its from Sunday 20th!

 

What I absolutely hate though. is subsequently seeing a new set of runs only a few hours later, with some of them showing breakdowns and uncertainty later in the run. As one or two of the most recent posts in the main model discussion thread, eg in 00z output, seem to be starting to include signs of, into week two.

 

Please can we start to have more reassuring runs again, for a revival of more prolonged settledness? Our main week away, with festivals at either end of it in Cheshire and Shropshire respectively, doesn't start until Friday 1st August -- the last thing I want is our weather starting to be be less settled/trough influenced/possibly even Atlantic trough influenced!!

 

It really would be a case of summer peaking too early for us if that came about. More FI improvements once again please!

Edited July 22, 2014 by William of Walworth

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Feel ECM 12Z is wrong here, GFS nearer I feel, continuing hot and sunny well into next week, too good to be true the ECM model

[William of Walworth]

In response to my own post from earlier today, just above .... some of the more recent posts/charts from later today, over on the main model output thread, have been somewhat more reassuring for avoidance of a total breakdown and even for continuance of summerlike conditions. I'm partially reassured for now. I do tend to get far too paranoid at times. Apologies all ...

 

(But still keeping my fingers crossed!!)....

[summer blizzard]

Well there is a big whopping disagreement with your viewpoint on the BBC homepage  :rofl:Unless the GFS is correct, then I suspect we could hit 30C on Friday and possibly Saturday. Wouldn't rule out a 90F either, the 850s are certainly high enough, just a case of cloud cover.

Indeed we did hit 30 so I was wrong. The upper air was not an issue to me, I've just seen many occasions when low pressure has seemingly lowered lapse rates or caused showers to break out before.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Another day us poor sods missing the good weather sick of the low cloud muck rant over

[NL]

Another day us poor sods missing the good weather sick of the low cloud muck rant over

Aye it is a hard pill to swallow when these slack high pressure systems sit over us and drag low cloud and 'haar' to the east especially the coastline. Cant be sure if it'll burn off right along the coastline but has readily burnt off inland. The low cloud here in the NE has been thick enough to produce a steady drizzle earlier but I can see 'brightness'..here's hoping...

Wish there had never been an ice age and created the North Sea..wonder how the weather would be like if Doggerland was still there?

Latest satellite image Sat24.com

[mushymanrob]

 I'm not worried about "great long hot summers" and i havent used that term.I'm enjoying this pretty decent summer - i think that's the term i used. nuff said.

 

no bb... you cant have it both ways.

 

you cannot be critical of a post that was 'writing off  a long hot summer' and substitute it with 'decent summer', that isnt what was said.

 

this summer has a very long way to go before it ranks alongside the great hot summers cited, with a hot spell of about ten days 2014 is miles behind so far.

the crucial , pivotal point will be what happens after this weekend. atm the models are unceratain, some suggest a carrying on with the warm dry sunny anticyclonic regime as the azores high ridges in again... or the azores high doesnt make it and we become dominated by the atlantic lows as per gfs 06z today.

 

personally ill be pleasantly surprised IF this warm dry settled sunny spell/pattern continues into august. 'writing off august' in terms of a continuation of sun/heat? well as ive pointed out, statistically its unlikely to be hot and sunny. that doesnt mean though that it cannot be 'decent' whatever criteria that holds! im guessing warm but not hot, mainly sunny and mainly dry... yep, thats quite feasible.

[Captain Shortwave]

No surprise really from the models. Just as I go on holiday I turn into a giant Atlantic low pressure magnet, every time. Just like at uni. The weather went catastrophically wrong once my exams in May had finished 

Edited July 23, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[ncikos]

this summer has a very long way to go before it ranks alongside the great hot summers cited, with a hot spell of about ten days 2014 is miles behind so far.

the crucial , pivotal point will be what happens after this weekend. atm the models are unceratain, some suggest a carrying on with the warm dry sunny anticyclonic regime as the azores high ridges in again... or the azores high doesnt make it and we become dominated by the atlantic lows as per gfs 06z today.

 

personally ill be pleasantly surprised IF this warm dry settled sunny spell/pattern continues into august. 'writing off august' in terms of a continuation of sun/heat? well as ive pointed out, statistically its unlikely to be hot and sunny. that doesnt mean though that it cannot be 'decent' whatever criteria that holds! im guessing warm but not hot, mainly sunny and mainly dry... yep, thats quite feasible.

 

My Comment (whys it quoting my own comments )

I think many people are getting carried away just because its been hot for 2 weeks.If i discount the fact i dont like summer anyway for a second.I would say summer 2014 has been average at best.I totally agree with u and thats probably the first comment ive actually read and thought yep hes right lol

Edited July 23, 2014 by ncikos

[Captain Shortwave]

Well June 2014 was drier and warmer than average and so far July has been warmer and sunnier than average (ignoring rainfall as there are going to be wild fluctuations given the rain events we have had). I would say this summer has been pretty good, especially so in the south.

[conor123]

Perfect week's, dreadful weekend's seems to be the theme this month, very bad timing with everything!

[snow freak]

Just typical.  Having a week off from work next week and the weather decides to take a turn to cooler and more showery weather

[Costa Del Fal]

Hope the CFS is right in it's trend for higher pressure and warmer temperatures than average but otherwise some poor charts on offer and August beginning on a sour note for some.

[Milhouse]

Despite all the lovely summery weather this summer and last, we havent seen anything exceptional in terms of high temperatures except for 1st August last year when we saw 33c. That is due to the fact that high pressure has often being right over the UK or to the north meaning that we havent been able to tap into any proper heat. If todays rather unspectacular chart can produce almost 30c just imagine what a stright southerly from Africa would be able to give.