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Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

ECM temps for London again showing the ensembles are still relatively split for this area as to the surface flow, from around the 19th:

 

post-14819-0-17892900-1400133049_thumb.g

 

This remains unresolved and a warmer feed remains possible. The GEFS this morning are also undecided:

 

post-14819-0-07367100-1400133130_thumb.g

 

At least a 7c split on the London ENS for the 20th. This morning's op (&Control) are the cooler versions, but again it looks about 50/50.

 

GEM remains the most optimistic for the warmer humid feed.: post-14819-0-80134700-1400133292_thumb.p

 

Compared to the GFS op: post-14819-0-65305200-1400133401_thumb.p  Bottom of its ENS so caution; however UKMO supports:

 

post-14819-0-52746600-1400133948_thumb.g  Last night's ECM mean also with GFS/UKMOpost-14819-0-51508600-1400134031_thumb.g

 

NAVGEM now trending for the early part of the week to have a  more humid flow: post-14819-0-93618600-1400133511_thumb.p

 

All models have the UK under an upper trough for around 6 days from Monday so as a whole more unsettled, however the GEM would push the very heavy rain to the SW/W/NW whilst the GFS more to the SE/S/E/NE.

 

Difficult to call but the means are still showing a less warm upper temp for the trough next week so this probably favorite.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

What’s new. Best summed up by saying it’s a bit like a Russian doll. A complex low mobile situation within a fatly static one.

 

Starting at 12z Sunday the GFS has low NW of Ireland with frontal troughs lying from the Irish Sea to Scotland accompanied by wet weather, At the same time the METO has the front Somerset , Wales, Wick with slack low pressure over the UK.

 

By Monday the front is lying across western UK with rain and the eastern half quite clear. Tuesday the low pressure is SW of Cornwall but there is a separate low over the UK bringing wet weather to all. By Wednesday the low is still in situ with a front across central England and Wales with a band of rain. And strong easterly winds across northern Britain. Thursday the complex low pressure area is still west of Britain putting the latter in a col between that and a ridge poking into the North Sea but mainly dry in all areas.

 

Temps. Monday cool in the far west and Scotland otherwise very warm  with temps in the low 70s. Tuesday much the same but temps a little lower.  Wednesday the divide is the front lying across the Midlands and Wales with dew points appreciable lower south of it leaving reasonable temps to the north. This is quite marked. By Thursday the front has weakened and moved north with generally reasonable temps in  the south but lower than before around the mid 60s.

 

All of this is so dependent on the exact disposition of the surface features that confidence is very low except in the broad brush of quite warm and periods of rain with the east and south east far better than most for settled weather.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

ECM looks decent this morning, quite similar to the GEM

Posted Image

Posted Image

Turning very warm Tuesday and Wednesday as another pulse of warm air moves north

Posted Image

 

ECM is making a decent attempt to cut the low off later on. Can it fully remove the cold air source feeding that low and sink it southwards to bring drier weather? Shame the ECM declines the Scandi block in this run which brings us into a more seasonable west/south westerly set up by the end of the run. If it had kept the block then we might have had a chance.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Well well ecm not backing down and is even warmer than the gfs and ukmo with low pressure further south and west!!to be fair ukmo is further west by a bit compared to yesterdays output!!gfs has gone haywire again but could produce the warmth again in the next output!!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ECM has a major change in the 500mb anomaly at 00z but we still end up with the complex area of low pressure for next week. As previously stated this is so dependent on the orientation. plus will there be any ingress from the east it's rather premature to go into details.

post-12275-0-17519700-1400137722_thumb.p

post-12275-0-45475100-1400137730_thumb.p

post-12275-0-51651600-1400137738_thumb.p

post-12275-0-46049700-1400137748_thumb.p

post-12275-0-55922900-1400137756_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Well well ecm not backing down and is even warmer than the gfs and ukmo with low pressure further south and west!!to be fair ukmo is further west by a bit compared to yesterdays output!!gfs has gone haywire again but could produce the warmth again in the next output!!

To be honest, I really cant see anything that warm for next week albeit perhaps warm and humid for some eastern parts of the Uk early next week. Gfs and ecm show a very unsettled  spell ultimately and if anything next week becomes cooler with the winds coming in from the Atlantic....Thundery potential looks rather limited in my opinion.... :nonono:  :closedeyes:  :closedeyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY THURSDAY 15TH MAY 2014.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. High pressure remains slow moving across Southern Britain while NW Britain sees a waving front to the NW with SW winds ahead of it and occasional rainfall over NW Scotland.

 

GFS The GFS Ensembles shows a generally unsettled week next week as Low pressure slips South down over Western Britain towards the SW. It then looks like continuing to rotate around the UK for some considerable time always promoting rain and thundery showers across Britain, especially towards the South and West. Changes longer term look slow with a gentle rise of pressure gradually reducing the risk of rain later in maintained rather humid and sometimes warm conditions.

 

UKMO UKMO closes it's run with Low pressure well in control to the west of the UK, probably positioned over Ireland and the SW approaches. With Southerly winds it is likely to stay rather warm in any bright spells with rain being heavy and thundery at times as a result, especially towards the South and West.

 

GEM The GEM operational today continues to show slack Low pressure areas close to or over the UK from Day 6 to day 10 with frequent thundery showers across the UK with some warm sunshine in between and winds relatively light.

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows Low pressure down to the SW early next week before it elongates NE across the UK and NW Europe later next week. As a result showery weather seems likely with slack winds and some thundery showers at times with some warm and bright intervals as well at times.

 

ECM today shows a showery start next week as Low pressure becomes established to the SW and West of the UK. With Southerly winds from Europe wafting up across the UK, especially the East it would likely stay warm and humid. This would probably result in thundery outbreaks carried North at times with nowhere immune and this process looks like being maintained throughout the week and into next weekend.

 

MY THOUGHTS  Today's output continues to show Low pressure becoming the dominant player next week. However, the trend to push the Low more to the West has increased the chance of things staying rather warm across the UK next week with the rain becoming more showery in nature. With Southerly winds thunder is a distinct possibility at times almost anywhere next week and with some bright and sunny intervals between the showers it could feel very warm and humid at times. The longer term projections from GFS and GEM today suggest a continuation of rather unsettled and showery conditions with Low pressure never far away meaning further rain and showers for all possible and with the propensity for Low pressure to shift more towards the NW of the UK the resultant switch of winds towards the West and SW it could turn a little cooler with time.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GEM still looking very warm for some and humid with some thundery downpours very possible

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

GEM shows many places starting fairly dry next week but given the warmth and humidity thunderstorms could pop up anywhere, by mid week rain looks more widespread

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh

Am i the only person thinking that rainfall could end up being fairly apocalyptic next week? I'm distracted from wondering about 850's and am left thinking that flooding might be the real talking points. 

 

ECM for wednesday night:

 

Posted Image

 

 

anybody remember this?

 

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Am i the only person thinking that rainfall could end up being fairly apocalyptic next week? I'm distracted from wondering about 850's and am left thinking that flooding might be the real talking points. 

 

ECM for wednesday night:

 

Posted Image

 

 

anybody remember this?

 

 

Posted Image

 

 

I don't post very often in here but I agree with you. I can't give you all the technical jargon like others do, but some of the synoptics showing up could be troublesome. The amount of highs and and small lows situated on those charts could mean that low pressure just gets locked in, feeding in plenty of moisture. It will change (hopefully) but when I quietly looked at the charts, I thought the same as you.

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A complex of fronts and troughs and possibly secondary lows circulating the main low swinging up from the south on a warm moist unstable airmass, a ripe situation for major rainfall for sure.

 

Posted Image

 

Day 8 rainfall accumulation from GFS shows the wetness potential though a long way from the details yet. Flash flooding possible as the rain could be torrential and thundery.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

^^^

 

Yes, agree that potential is there. 50mm is London's average and this morning's ECM:  post-14819-0-94521200-1400156182_thumb.g

 

The mean is about 40mm for about 11 days from the 19th. Some members heading over 80 mms. However as with the temp ensembles there is a lot of spread:

 

post-14819-0-96447800-1400156341_thumb.g

 

In fact more than recent output. From next Tuesday surface conditions are no where near being nailed, re rainfall or temps. Though above average precipitation is taken as given, just how much more.

 

The ECM op was again on the warmer side of the mean, and the GFS 0z, as already argued, on the cooler side.

 

FI in the GEFS 06z remains erratic with no pattern or trend developing yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

A complex of fronts and troughs and possibly secondary lows circulating the main low swinging up from the south on a warm moist unstable airmass, a ripe situation for major rainfall for sure.

 

Posted Image

 

Day 8 rainfall accumulation from GFS shows the wetness potential though a long way from the details yet. Flash flooding possible as the rain could be torrential and thundery.

That screams of august 2004 biblications to me (that was seriously wet at our part of the world)

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

That screams of august 2004 biblications to me (that was seriously wet at our part of the world)

 

I just hope it's not a repeating pattern, in July or August there'd be some serious humidity.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Yes it starts to breakdown around late Sunday into Monday as we can see from the GFS 06Z run

 

post-2026-0-36643600-1400161546_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-69292300-1400161562_thumb.pn

 

showery rain developing as the Atlantic moist air pushes against the continental warmth further east.

It looks as if the low will be around the south west approaches for a few days then with more pulses of sometimes quite heavy outbreaks of rain moving up from the south along the boundary layers.

I guess there will intervals of warm and sometimes humid sunshine but no where can expect a dry day next week by the looks of the latest runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Am i the only person thinking that rainfall could end up being fairly apocalyptic next week? I'm distracted from wondering about 850's and am left thinking that flooding might be the real talking points. 

 

ECM for wednesday night:

 

Posted Image

 

 

anybody remember this?

 

 

Posted Image

 

Yep, I mentioned the similarity to June 2007 a few days ago. Could be quite a bit of rain around next week if the GFS modelling is to be believed. Pulses of heavy, perhaps thundery, rain pushing up from the S or SE.

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Just thought i,d pop in and say high gang ,yes high pressure for a while ,looking at current charts .THen it looks like next week could see some interesting weather with low pressure taking control for a fair while .i expect many are thinking here we go again ,but its only mid month so easily 13 weeks of summer to come .but as we are all aware summer in the UK can be chalk or cheese ,im looking forward to tonights Fax charts and main runs ,catch up with you all after i,v watered the garden with part of last winters Deluge ,Cheers .

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

UKMO and GFS both indicating that it will stay warm on into next week so it could feel quite tropical with some heavy rain at times but also some dry periods to be had. Pressure not that low on the UKMO at 144h so maybe more in the way of warm sunshine the further north and east you go.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GEM shows the warm and potentially thundery air slowly getting replaced by some fresher air with further spells of rain towards the end of next week

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

The fresher air is in place for all by day 9 though GEM shows high pressure starts to build in

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

 

By day 10 high pressure is across most of England and Wales though it stays fresher after what could be a very humid spell of weather proceeding it especially in the east

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Ukmo further west again!!also warmer and very similar to the ecm this morning!!gfs much the same!!Looking at a thundery week next week now!!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

and where would the link for these charts be located for those who do not look at them often

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
049balt, on 15 May 2014 - 18:30, said:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

 

 

Are we seeing the first signs of the weather drying out.

 

not sure i'm reading that right but its look its getting better after this next week but all the rain seems to come in 3 to 4 days starting from tuesday

 

possible flooding somewhere

Edited by Gordon Webb
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

and where would the link for these charts be located for those who do not look at them often

 

If that is asking me I didn't put a link because it's behind a paywall.

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