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Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.


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No surprise that 2m temps are forecast to be around 4c lower on the 12z compared to the 0z on Day 6:

 

12z: post-14819-0-13270600-1400085304_thumb.p  0z: post-14819-0-16990100-1400085320_thumb.p

 

Though the east and NE still looking at better temps than yesterday's runs. NAVGEM also now hinting at this:

 

post-14819-0-82179000-1400087304_thumb.p GEM the most optimistic still: post-14819-0-86888600-1400087682_thumb.p

 

The continued trend for after the trough slips away (around D11 on the op) is for heights to build from the Azores to Scandi; so by well into FI:

 

post-14819-0-63209500-1400087111_thumb.p  Early days.

 

 

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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As mentioned above, it seems like a considerable shift in synoptic setup is forecasted, with a general dominance of low pressure over and just to the west of the UK anticipated in just a few days time

With the buildup of high pressure from the southwest, it seems like an end will come to a prolonged wet period. More settled conditions will prevail for the next few days over the UK. How will the wea

Well this week sees a large heat plume building over central & most of Western Europe,the UK however sitting on the western periphery with the trough anchored to the SW of us & southerly flow

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Still a lot of runs needed until we get even next Monday right. very tight situation here. Still questions on how far south the low will go and hence how warm the flow will be into the UK. The next is what happens to that low?

 

One thing I will say is with the Russian/Scandi block trying to push westwards again next week, I'm surprised no model has tried to link the high with the Amplified Atlantic ridge and fully cut off the low. That outcome is worth watching to see if it crops up in the next day or so.

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ECM out to t168 now and it too shows a warm and humid start to next week possibly very warm in the east at times with some thunderstorms given the set up could be some cracking storms if the models stay like this

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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ECM out to t168 now and it too shows a warm and humid start to next week possibly very warm in the east at times

 

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Yes ,but in these synoptics plenty of potential for heavy thundery rain.....

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My word ecm is just as good as gfs and ukmo for very warm and humid temps next week!!but its a right thundery mess!!I really do think if the models stay the way they are then theres gona be some spectacular thunderstorms!!

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^^^

 

The upcoming warm spell may throw up some storms Friday and Saturday evenings for the south. The GEFS have been highlighting this for some runs and now looking more likely:

 

post-14819-0-84596500-1400094547_thumb.p  post-14819-0-46550200-1400094556_thumb.p

 

As well as a very unsettled spell for 5-6 days from the 19th:

 

post-14819-0-64214700-1400094486_thumb.g  

 

 

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Certainly nothing cold to come looking at the current models so the remarkable run of above average temperatures that began right back in December is set to continue. So the next 10 days can be best described as dry and warm, becoming unsettled but staying warm.

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As has been noted the position of the low next week is crucial. At the end of the run the ECM has the very warm Scandinavian air taking a peep.

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post-12275-0-77713500-1400095027_thumb.p

post-12275-0-38668300-1400095035_thumb.p

post-12275-0-61361900-1400095045_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Can I just query, perhaps to those who know more than me, how high the temps that the ECM and gfs are indicating would be at surface level. Uppers are one thing, but at this time of year the levels do sun are important and if it's cloudy and often wet, will the temps be all that great?

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Looks like the Uk will be on the boundary between warm and cold air. This is not a "plume" scenario for the uk, over on the continent may well have the fireworks. Don't be surprised as the warm air near the reliable time frame gets shunted further east and we are left in just cool Atlantic air. I hope Im wrong... :nonono:  :nonono::rofl:

post-6830-0-25168600-1400095946_thumb.pn

post-6830-0-68626400-1400095994_thumb.pn

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it'll impact them but am not sure to how much i think some have storm tinted glasses on at the moment it's got 5 days to go so may be different nearer the time unless it's thunder then its a nailed on certainty according to some

Edited by Polar Maritime
Once again, Please stick to Model Discussion thanks.
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it'll impact them but am not sure to how much i think some have storm tinted glasses on at the moment it's got 5 days to go so may be different nearer the time unless it's thunder then its a nailed on certainty according to some

 

read what John Holmes says

 

he bases his statments more on facts and a little less on hope

 

not that I'm having a go at anybody even though some will see it that way

It may be different nearer the time - but that is always the case. People are just discussing what the models are currently or have been showing - and GFS in any case has been consistent with thunder potential next week.

 

I think your post may be the result of your hatred for storms rather than anything else.

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just a quick reminder......this thread is for model discussion, nothing more, nothing less....If one's posts contain material based of what the current model output is showing then it's good to go.....if not, then it belongs elsewhere on the forum...thanks :good:

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Certainly nothing cold to come looking at the current models so the remarkable run of above average temperatures that began right back in December is set to continue. So the next 10 days can be best described as dry and warm, becoming unsettled but staying warm.

The run of above average temperatures has been going since last July. Never known anything like it.
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Can I just query, perhaps to those who know more than me, how high the temps that the ECM and gfs are indicating would be at surface level. Uppers are one thing, but at this time of year the levels do sun are important and if it's cloudy and often wet, will the temps be all that great?

 

If it's not cloudy if you take the 850mb temp down the DALR you won't be far off. Obviously if cloudy it will be lower, not least because you might get an inversion spoiling the party.

Edited by knocker
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The run of above average temperatures has been going since last July. Never known anything like it.

Hi.Can you please put youre thoughts in the suitable threads Thank You!

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

 

well looking  at that we  can forget any nice weather  for the next  bank holiday!!!

No worries, we still can't fathom next Monday, let alone 5/6 days later :)

Still all output wants to try and let low pressure escape next week from its prison near the Bay of Biscay. Still think either a cut off low or perhaps further pulses of warm air could still happen and bring something warmer and drier perhaps.

 

One last thing, had a look at the Netweather long range forecast, interesting read and it looks like our summer pattern could be setting up next week. Again possible signs that persistent and repeating ridges in one area of the northern hemisphere. This time being Scandinavia with low heights to the south west of the UK. Interesting.......

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No worries, we still can't fathom next Monday, let alone 5/6 days later :)Still all output wants to try and let low pressure escape next week from its prison near the Bay of Biscay. Still think either a cut off low or perhaps further pulses of warm air could still happen and bring something warmer and drier perhaps. One last thing, had a look at the Netweather long range forecast, interesting read and it looks like our summer pattern could be setting up next week. Again possible signs that persistent and repeating ridges in one area of the northern hemisphere. This time being Scandinavia with low heights to the south west of the UK. Interesting.......

could mean plumes galore and hot temperatures!!
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This might be pushing it, but we may well possibly tap into them 15c uppers. I've been watching this trend westwards. Not often we see this happen in plume set ups. The Southerly tracking jet like we had in the cursed 2007-12 is redundant. Steering winds look different. I think we may be surprised in this next week.

Of course I could be very wrong! I've got a good feeling about this though. By now, normally the eastward trend would have already been modelled..

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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This might be pushing it, but we may well possibly tap into them 15c uppers. I've been watching this trend westwards. Not often we see this happen in plume set ups. The Southerly tracking jet like we had in the cursed 2007-12 is redundant. Steering winds look different. I think we may be surprised in this next week.Of course I could be very wrong! I've got a good feeling about this though. By now, normally the eastward trend would have already been modelled..

 

Possibly, but to be honest I seem to find around 2 days before is the point when the gradual push east in the pressure pattern (and any associated fronts) begins for this type of set-up. I am not saying it will happen this time,but if I was to place a bet now... :rolleyes:

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Possibly, but to be honest I seem to find around 2 days before is the point when the gradual push east in the pressure pattern (and any associated fronts) begins for this type of set-up. I am not saying it will happen this time,but if I was to place a bet now... :rolleyes:

This is one of the first times in a fair number of years since we've seen a proper cut off low though without the influence of a southerly tracking jet pushing the juice eastwards albeit, it isn't nailed down yet!!!. I remember in 2004 a setup like this at the end of July produced some real good night storms that came from the SE. I think we could see something very similar. Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Possibly, but to be honest I seem to find around 2 days before is the point when the gradual push east in the pressure pattern (and any associated fronts) begins for this type of set-up. I am not saying it will happen this time,but if I was to place a bet now... :rolleyes:

Probably not for the start of the week as the formation of the trough has been slowly edging west. Just a question of whether the warm air can hang on into next week.

On the other hand when the low get ejected back into the jetstream, then it will probably go balls up :p

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