Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS have the UK under an upper mean trough from about T156 to T288:

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifgens-21-1-156.png  http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifgens-21-1-288.png

 

Good consistency for the timing and duration of this upcoming unsettled spell from around D7. This supersedes the 3-4 days of higher pressure from mid week. Friday should be the warmest (>20c) day.

 

The LP stalls in the trough over the UK and fills from week 2; so pretty miserable. The London ens rainfall highlights this:

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifgraphe4_1000_306_141___Londres ( .gif

 

From D13 the trend is to build pressure from the S/SW/SE dependent on the cluster so by T300 the GFS mean: http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifgens-21-1-300 (4).png

 

The GEM solution of the AH continuing to build a Scandi High rather than full retrogression has about three member (being generous) support in the GEFS. So not convinced with that solution (yet).

 

The GFS mean is pretty compelling with regard to the timing & location of the UK trough, so will see if ECM sticks to its guns tonight...

Unlike you I must say I have some real doubts about the GFS on this one, this could a case where the GFS op is wrong and the ensembles follow it like sheep, only to change drastically in 1 or 2 runs.

ECM coming out and again the trough ends up west of the UK

If this came off it would be a fine and warm weekend for most of the UK with cloud and rain for the north west.

[Summer Sun]

ECM similar to UKMO by keeping the high going for the start of the weekend warm and dry  too away from Scotland

 

 

Sunday looking fine as well away from NW Scotland and Ireland

 

Edited May 11, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Scorcher]

Unlike you I must say I have some real doubts about the GFS on this one, this could a case where the GFS op is wrong and the ensembles follow it like sheep, only to change drastically in 1 or 2 runs.

ECM coming out and again the trough ends up west of the UK

If this came off it would be a fine and warm weekend for most of the UK with cloud and rain for the north west.

 

Agree, I share your optimism on this- it seems to be in very short supply in this thread at the minute! The ECM is certainly trending in the right direction, with the fine weather looking set to be extended longer into the weekend than we first thought. It even looks reasonable for most on Sunday now, with the warm southerly air sticking around. 

[bluearmy]

I had a while away from religiously following the output until around ten days ago. Since i returned, gfs has looked lost on most days.

[Milhouse]

The cool uppers are being kept well away from the UK, Warm southerlies instead.

 

[shaky]

Ecm is lovely this evening!!!ukmo similar!!gfs will slowly catch up I think!!

[Milhouse]

Turning into a decent run. Staying on the warm side with more unsettled conditions pushing into the SW but fine elsewhere.

 

Edited May 11, 2014 by Milhouse

[Milhouse]

The run ends with the trough still to the west but this would likely be the most unsettled day with a front positioned north to south somewhere over the UK. Pointless looking at specific details that far out but the indications are still there that the dry and fine conditions may well persist out to Sunday at the earliest.

 

[knocker]

Not a huge change with the ECM. Now what shall I do on Thursday and Friday?

 

Edited May 11, 2014 by knocker

[IDO]

Fingers crossed ECM op is correct but the latest update from NOAA ties in with the GFS 12z mean and ECM 0z mean:

 

 

Maybe the ECM mean will move closer to the op later?

[Summer Sun]

Fingers crossed ECM op is correct but the latest update from NOAA ties in with the GFS 12z mean and ECM 0z mean:

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/master/attachicon.gif814day.03.gif

 

Maybe the ECM mean will move closer to the op later?

 

Thats how this settled spell first developed the Op picked it up and kept with it despite no ensemble support then suddenly the ECM ensemble came on board, going to be a case of wait and see what happens

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks like nice weather from Wednesday to friday' both ecm and gfs somewhat agree on a change of weather from next weekend onwards...

Edited May 11, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Some quite substantial changes in the past 24-36 hours in terms of where that high will retrogress to. ECM hinting that we could well have some warm and humid weather by next week now instead of a cool northerly.

[IDO]

Not much change from the ECM mean with LP moving through the UK next Sunday and with us till D10:

 

T168:   T240:

 

So the OP remains on its own.

[knocker]

The EPS means

 

[bluearmy]

very fluid now on the ECM suite. The depth of the trough over nw Europe diminishing by the run and the anomaly from the ECM 12z mean barely brings the blues to the eastern side of the uk. The spreads are wide so we remain in a position where we could easily swing back to a more marked trough but the direction of travel is all in one direction at the moment.

[Cloud 10]

Much better agreement between the 12z day 8 ensemble mean's from GFS,GEM and ECM

this evening compared to the 00z runs.

 

 

 

[Milhouse]

Not much change from the ECM mean with LP moving through the UK next Sunday and with us till D10:

 

T168: http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifEDM1-168 (2).gif   T240: http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifEDM1-240 (5).gif

 

So the OP remains on its own.

 

Not sure it is though. Certainly not as much an outlier as the 0z. There has been a westwards shift in the position of low pressure as highlighted by the chart below. The fact that warm air is not too far away shows winds from a southerly direction are likely. We still require a further westwards movement to prolong the dry conditions though.

 

[johnholmes]

Fingers crossed ECM op is correct but the latest update from NOAA ties in with the GFS 12z mean and ECM 0z mean:

 

814day.03.gif

 

Maybe the ECM mean will move closer to the op later?

i

In my experience the closest upper pattern is usually NOAA

[Captain Shortwave]

A lot of differences between the models even at day 6

GFS

UKMO

GEM

 

GFS again places low pressure over the UK, the GEM keeps most of the UK dry and at times very warm throughout the run with heights to the north east and a south easterly flow.

[shaky]

A lot of differences between the models even at day 6

GFS

UKMO

GEM

 

GFS again places low pressure over the UK, the GEM keeps most of the UK dry and at times very warm throughout the run with heights to the north east and a south easterly flow.

you can tell that low pressure is being pushed back west every run though!!I bet you it will look like the ecm and ukmo come the actual time!!

[gottolovethisweather]

A lot of differences between the models even at day 6

GFS

UKMO

GEM

 

GFS again places low pressure over the UK, the GEM keeps most of the UK dry and at times very warm throughout the run with heights to the north east and a south easterly flow.

 

Given the GFS love in with zonal atlantic domination at the best of times, I would favour the UKMO view and even the GEM in such situations. We are talking about day 6 (next Sunday) so I would suggest Wednesday through Saturday now looks reasonable and warm enough for a great many of us. Next week is still up for grabs but watch today's and tomorrow's 12zs for hints of further High Pressure placement near to our shores. My instinct tells me, simply to wait and watch where the GFS puts us during the day 8 to day 12 timeframe and whether it has a tendency for weakening the trough and replacing it with something more favourable?

Edited May 12, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[knocker]

Another week another dollar.

 

Just the good news for now. The GFS 12z  temps for the UK Weds, through Sunday.

 

Wednesday Should be in the mid 60s except Scotland and the extreme south west. Thursday getting warmer up to the low 70s in England except coastal areas, Scotland and northern England.

 

Friday, probably the hottest day with temps again in the low 70s except north west Scotland. Saturday and the downward spiral has begun for most of England, except the east which will remain in the mid to upper 60s, Sunday will be much cooler for all. This is of course pretty broad brush.

 

Time for the sun block. Briefly.

 

Regarding the 500mb anomaly the trough is still dominating at the beginning of next week with the high pressure still being maintained to the NE and in the western Atlantic.

 

 

Edited May 12, 2014 by knocker

[IDO]

Hopefully the GEM op is onto something as it is better than last night's. The HLB is now further west: 

 

But again last night's GEM mean was not dissimilar to GFS (and also ECM): 

 

With the trough moving over the UK by the end of the weekend. At D10 it was still in line with GFS Mean: 

 

As others have pointed out it is possible the hi res runs are nailing it, though the GFS 0z run remains steadfast with its recent output. Mean at T240: 

 

 

Not only that, the op and control are leading its members with a faster and deeper and longer pressure loss than the mean:

 

 

 

The opposite to the ECM/GEM ops; as you can see from ECM 12z ens temp: 

 

The op was still one of the warmest members from D7, being where the GFS and ECM diverge in synoptics.

 

With the GFS so consistently resolute with its output and the fact the GEM and ECM mean follow the GEFS lead I am still confident GFS has this sussed.

Edited May 12, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[IDO]

you can tell that low pressure is being pushed back west every run though!!I bet you it will look like the ecm and ukmo come the actual time!!

 

 

It could be said the LP anomaly from the ECM op over the last three runs have made consistent steps towards the GFS output:

 

ECM 0z yesterday: 

 

Yesterday 12z (nearest): 

 

This mornings: 

 

Nearly there and closer to its mean. T192 ECM op 0z: 

Edited May 12, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...