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Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

12z UKMO showing pressure starting to rise from the SW on Tuesday UK wide on Wednesday

 

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GFS 2m8 day temperature anomaly remains above average

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: South Norwood, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Cold Winters & Warm Dry Summers
  • Location: South Norwood, London

Looks like it's going to get cold again around the end of November,

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=5814&mode=2&carte=0&run=0

 

and Christmas Eve / Christmas day is looking very chilly, might even be some of the white stuff around :-)

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=6384&mode=2&carte=0&run=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=6390&mode=3&carte=0&run=0

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Looks like it's going to get cold again around the end of November,

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=5814&mode=2&carte=0&run=0

 

and Christmas Eve / Christmas day is looking very chilly, might even be some of the white stuff around :-)

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=6384&mode=2&carte=0&run=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=6390&mode=3&carte=0&run=0

 

8 months away.......

 

Back to the slightly nearer and more realistic timeframe ECM shows pressure starting to rise

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

There is little output from the models that suggest high pressure in control for any length of time. both gfs and ecm show  a strong Atlantic influence, sunshine and showers look to be the order of the day, but some clean and fresh Atlantic weather, yes fleeting gleems of high pressure but nothing settled in the pipeline...Posted Image Posted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

Yes the ECM is still showing a cooling off too. 850s are a lot lower than of late next week on this run, with Tuesday showing a cool day:

 

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They recover a bit in the south on Thursday but then the cooler air sweeps back in. Im actualy looking forward to feeling the fresh air after the constant fog/smog of this week.

Edited by Winter Cold
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

With much cleaner air pushing in it should be a very seasonal next 10 days with average temperatures and a mix of settled and showery days. Nothing too extreme. One big difference will be the return of blue skies during the settled periods and inbetween any showers. This will allow the full effect of the stronger April sun to be felt.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Apart from a minor blip early next week the 850's remain above average till at least the 19th

 

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Pressure stays fairly high for the south as such rainfall amounts will be fairly low

 

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Further north in Scotland pressure is lower at times increasing the risk of more rain

 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

All models are showing a changeable fairly seasonal outlook, with the atlantic in control bringing bands of rain or showers in from the west, with the heaviest precipitation reserved for the NW quarter of the country and driest mildest conditions in the south east quarter where pressure will remain relatively high thanks to the influence of the azores high and a northerly tracking Jetstream.

 

Very standard fayre but in the main temps in the south especially will stay very respectable for the time of year and eastern coastal districts will see much better fayre with return of sunshine.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Looks like it's going to get cold again around the end of November,

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=5814&mode=2&carte=0&run=0

 

and Christmas Eve / Christmas day is looking very chilly, might even be some of the white stuff around :-)

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=6384&mode=2&carte=0&run=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=6390&mode=3&carte=0&run=0

 

 

good to see someone with belief in the very farthest reaches of meteorological folk lore.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

Consensus forming between the ensemble models for heights to build over the UK into days 10-16. Bringing pleasant and fine conditions into Easter wkend - ext ecm has been swaying back and forth with this time period, but with the other ens suggesting above average conditions, and the ecm now on board, confidence can increase.

Posted Image

temp anom ext ecm days 10-15

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I'm going with a northwest-southeast split with decent fine and pleasant spells for the SE and the most atlantic driven weather to the NW.... It could be a lot worse.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 00z op run shows a NW-SE split for most of the time, the azores and continental anticyclones continue to have considerable influence across at least the south eastern half of the BI although occasionally flirting with unsettled weather but it's the NW of the uk which has the most unsettled conditions although even the north west has some decent fine spells too. It could be a lot worse..it's nothing compared to the washout winter, the PFJ is further north, and the jetstream is weaker.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z op run also shows a NW-SE split, high pressure constantly ridging in from the azores with the south / south east of the uk feeling most of the benefit, a different story the further north west you are, the balance is tipped more towards unsettled weather with atlantic lows brushing across to the north of the BI...all in all, it's normal for the time of year, some warm and cooler days with most of the rain for n.ireland & scotland and a lot of fine weather for the SE with just occasional unsettled interludes.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Fairly settled UKMO still as well with pressure still on course to rise mid week though northern and NW Scotland looks most prone to unsettled weather

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

GFS 8 day 2m temperature anomaly remains above average

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Looking further out at day 10 the 3 models which go that far all show pressure rising

 

GFS

 

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ECM

 

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GEM

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows a north-south split next week, high pressure soon rebuilding across the south but the north of the uk remaining generally unsettled, it does turn significantly cooler for a time next week from the west by around tuesday for all areas with a mixture of sunshine and april showers but temperatures quickly recovering again across the south of the uk as the showers die out with more in the way of sunshine and lighter winds with pressure rising, the breezier and showery weather becoming more restricted to scotland and n.ireland. Beyond T+168 hours it shows the jet axis tilting towards a nw-se alignment with low pressure to the north west gaining the upper hand and swinging south eastwards towards the north west of the BI so it's the north which would be coolest and most unsettled, but the south should have a good deal of fine weather during the course of next week according to this.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.

Pressure never falls that low, even in the north, hopefully associated fronts and showers will not be too active.

Edited by 049balt
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Any thoughts on the medium term, ie rest of April would be much appreciated.

i'm sure the latest met office update will have the best idea on that this afternoon.

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Posted
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.

i'm sure the latest met office update will have the best idea on that this afternoon.

I have followed the met in the past and they are generally poor beyond a week, this has been the best place for picking up trends, remember last July's heat wave, it was picked up here first !

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Any thoughts on the medium term, ie rest of April would be much appreciated.

 

Possibly a more settled 2nd half to the month: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79882-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-springsummer-2014/?p=2953981

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

A fairly settled run from GFS from next Wednesday (9th) to the following Tuesday (15th)

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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Temperatures would be in the mid to high teens for England and wales before climbing into the low 20's later on in the south

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Lovely outputs this morning..

 

Posted Image

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