Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[Captain Shortwave]

Hopefully the output will look a little more rosy tomorrow. Hopefully June won't be like some times during the winter where the block to the East was agonisingly close, but in the end we just ended up wet.

The pub run is out and well, Eastern areas are shown to get a dry Monday as well as rain staggers across the country, being held up by heights to the north east.

Would be very pleasant too getting into the low 20s.

Apart from the weekend, things are not looking too good. Parts of my regions have already seen around a months worth of rain in the last 24 hours and it's still chucking it down.

[SP1986]

After some hope yesterday things have settled into a horrible looking outlook, with the ECM on top form it seems. 

 

The low will probably plague us for some time, as it will have nowhere to go, being essentially trapped on all sides by high pressure. Unfortunately we happen to be the location in which this low will settle, it does look a little reminiscent of the worst Summer weather we've had recently. The consolation to what looks like a very poor first half of June on the way, is that at least there will be some fleeting summery weather around the weekend.

 

Summers here are possibly trending cooler and wetter (with the exception of last year), but northern Spain is really getting the short straw, never seen such cool weather in June for that part of Spain as is forecast recently on the models. In Santander the other day they had maximum of 13C, which for May, is quite shocking. Some parts of Northern Spain may have a maximum of 6C next week.. that'll surely be a record breaker if that is to occur. 

Edited May 27, 2014 by SP1986

[Chris K]

It is hardly surprising we are seeing outputs like today with the Jet Stream modelled that far South of the UK. Here is T+18 from the GFS 18z run just as an example....

What we are seeing is the stronger "bursts" of energy through the Jet being forced South of the UK towards Spain. This happens repeatedly throughout the run until right in FI...it just keeps getting forced South over the Atlantic because of the blocking pattern currently established. Between that, it does try tilting on a more NE path towards or just NW of the UK, but ever so weakly.

 

It doesn't help matters that we have heights over Greenland, the Azores High and Heights to our NE all lingering around like a hot fart. The passage left for troughs is for them to get forced over or close to the UK and into Southern Europe. Until we see changes to cause a break in this hemispheric pattern we are going to see this continuing. There will be some settled spells included like (hopefully) next weekend...but the overall pattern is sluggish and being a thorn in the backside at the moment. Would not be surprised if we eventually see another "thundery" episode similar to last weeks appear - as hinted in deep FI.

 

However, I would like to make clear that I am not suggesting our Summer pattern is set...I wouldn't be so daft to make that assumption with such a complex system that is our atmosphere. We just need nature to give the pressure patterns a shove.

Edited May 27, 2014 by Chris K

[summer blizzard]

Another messy but poor run until well into FI..

 

[William of Walworth]

It is hardly surprising we are seeing outputs like today with the Jet Stream modelled that far South of the UK. Here is T+18 from the GFS 18z run just as an example....

 

 

However, I would like to make clear that I am not suggesting our Summer pattern is set...I wouldn't be so daft to make that assumption with such a complex system that is our atmosphere. We just need nature to give the pressure patterns a shove.

Relieved to read that last paragraph, and I hope others agree and are not tempted into 'writing off June' or even the whole summer.

 

We're currently looking at output acrooss most models that has significantly worsened over the last 48 hours. I know the general synoptics (Atlantic, Greenland, mainland Europe and eveywhere!) don't look at all favourable for a recovery any time soon, but significant changes in positioning have happened in a relatively short time before and can happen again.

 

So I'm not writing off June myself. At least, not later June ....

[knocker]

Morning men starboard ten. The greeting a bosun I knew 50 years ago used often seems appropriate.

 

Anyway what goodies await for next week.

 

A snapshot of the GFS 00z ops upper air anomaly.  On Tuesday there is a fairly intense upper low to the west of Ireland with a ridge mid Atlantic and a mass of warm air to the east. For the next three days it’s all about the movement of the low. It travels SE to arrive over Spain on Friday with the ridge mid Atlantic losing intensity and the warm air to the NE encroaching the UK and gaining a foothold in the NE.

 

If you pop into F1 the warm air from the NE is established over the UK but keep “count†and “chickens†in mind.

 

The jet stream swings north around the Atlantic ridge and south around the upper low that lies on the cold side of the jet, and into Spain.

 

Surface analysis Tuesday though Friday. On Tuesday low west of Ireland with Azores high to the SW/W and Russian high to NE, Thereafter a variation on a theme with a complex area of low pressure over the UK bringing very unsettled weather, By Friday the glimmer of hope is arriving with the high pressure from the NE affecting the NE,

 

As I said morning……………………….

Edited May 28, 2014 by knocker

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the model output looks a little better this morning with the weekend and now monday looking dry and fairly warm according to the GFS/GEM/UKMO

UKMO

GEM

 

Nice little upgrade on the Azore ridge as it holds out a little longer and low heights tend to develop between north west Spain and Southern England as opposed to right over the UK as shown last night.

 

GFS ens still going for a significant warm up through week 2 as the ridge to the east of the UK increases its presence on the UK. 

[mushymanrob]

The here and now first and for a long long time we have a deep seated easterly from a cold source with associated frontal action, if this was winter - a snow cold lovers dream - couldn't ask for better synoptics, alas it is late May, and not great for anyone taking a break on the east coast.

 

The models are suggesting a drying up pattern by the of the week as the trough moves to the SW - not often we see a slow moving westward moving trough, but we have quite cool air to its rear, temperatures by the weekend average/slightly above at best, but under sunshine it will feel summer like.

 

Into next week, mmm not an encouraging set up to the start to June, strong heights to our west and south west and to our NE, the trough and jet have only one place to go and that is to settle on top of us - synoptics reminiscent of the worst conditions of summers 07-12. Still it is only early June, and like early December the start to the new season rarely plays itself out for the rest of the season (last winter mind an exception!).

 

 

Relieved to read that last paragraph, and I hope others agree and are not tempted into 'writing off June' or even the whole summer.

So I'm not writing off June myself. At least, not later June ....

 

... but whats chilling is that those bad summers of recent times started off with a bad start to june, and the usual chorus of 'you cant write off summer yet' was chanted in 07, 08, 12.... and  they were wrong.  im not saying you can write off summer, im saying you cannot dismiss the possibility.

 

this pattern of lows being held , locked in over us, has been the pattern since late jan. it has recurred several times. the azores high and the scandi-siberian high have stubbornly refused to go anywhere, and as has been mentioned the jet has nowhere else to go but over us as a result. of course no one knows how long this recurring pattern will persist, and on the plus side the synoptics arent the same as the major washouts of 07,08,12 which relied on a mean high over greenland and a mean trough over scandinavia/northern europe. so personally i dont expect another 07,08,12, but we might get a different type of 'washout' summer, at least at first, as the mean trough looks like being held to our near west/southwest, which has been the case several times this year so far.  this would lead to showery/thundery but warm regime with the likelyhood of warm/very warm sunnier periods.

[draztik]

ecm just as horrible as last night into week 2,I'm afraid; with no sign of any warm up akin to what GEFS indicates.

6-10 day ecm 0z height & temp anom.

My fear at this stage is all the long range models were indicating a settled and warm June - and certainly we don't look like seeing that. Certainly not the first half if the ecm ensembles are to be believed. So, any predictions for July & August now look as remote as ever.

Edited May 28, 2014 by draztik

[knocker]

Yes just to confirm draztik's post above and add that the GS anomaly is not dissimilar with upper low further south over Spain.

 

The surface progression from Tuesday through Friday. Area of slack low pressure over the UK for first two days with the Atlantic high to the SW. Thursday and Friday sees the intensification of the low west of Ireland as was suggested on the last run.

Edited May 28, 2014 by knocker

[bluearmy]

Lucky its the fi op that looks so grim and not the ens ..................... Give it half an hour!

[joggs]

The models clearly have the opposite seasons in mind.What most of us would give for this setup in winter lol.

Edited May 28, 2014 by joggs

[johnholmes]

Inceasingly over the last 3 days the anomaly charts show a similar pattern to one another. That is the main feature over and close to the UK is an upper trough. +ve heights are being shown to the N/NE of the UK but to me they look unlikely to give any settled weather in the 6-15 day outlooks. Not a total wash out as the winter period but with the word changeable rather than settled featuring in most forecasts after about Sunday. Not that it is very settled looking outside my window as I type this. The last sunshine here was Monday and since then 10.8mm has been recorded in my very sheltered raingauge.

 

anomaly chart links below

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[bluearmy]

Certainly looks that way john. The upper air pattern well set over two weeks. fortunately, it looks to be that the margin of error could be to the west which does throw up the possibilities that we could get a southerly drift from time to time with the upper ridge edging west in tandem with that trough. Of course the old adage that everything verifies further east than modelled doesnt bode well!

[knocker]

Certainly looks that way john. The upper air pattern well set over two weeks. fortunately, it looks to be that the margin of error could be to the west which does throw up the possibilities that we could get a southerly drift from time to time with the upper ridge edging west in tandem with that trough. Of course the old adage that everything verifies further east than modelled doesnt bode well!

 

The GFS is certainly thinking along those lines.

[Summer Sun]

ECM again looking very unsettled later in its run

 

[knocker]

The ECM ens anomaly confirms the ops run and the position of the jet stream.

 

[draztik]

Ecm ens & control keen for a gradual warming, with warmer air filtering in from the east for Scotland especially into days 9-14. Rest of UK looks like being under a weak positive temp anomaly overall, tho fairly unsettled the further south and west you go. But not too bad into mid term,keep the faith!

Ecm control temp anom d 9-14

[Man With Beard]

Ecm ens & control keen for a gradual warming, with warmer air filtering in from the east for Scotland especially into days 9-14. Rest of UK looks like being under a weak positive temp anomaly overall, tho fairly unsettled the further south and west you go. But not too bad into mid term,keep the faith!

Ecm control temp anom d 9-14

This morning's charts (ensembles that is) aren't too different from last night's, from a global perspective, but the tilt of the trough brings a fairly long fetch SE, which has potential to be very hot. A slight realignment puts us under the trough again though.

So I'm thinking for D7-D10, unsettled is still the slight favourite, but warmer drier weather could still trump it.

Edited May 28, 2014 by Polar Maritime
Please can we all keep references to Winter for Winter, Many Thanks.

[Captain Shortwave]

hmm interesting GFS 06z. that would bring a warmer week for many. the closer we get to this coming weekend the longer that ridge from the Azores wants to hang in there and hold up the low in the Atlantic. This delays any break down and brings the russian/scandi high more into play.

Edited May 28, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[DTHFCJ]

hmm interesting GFS 06z. that would bring a warmer week for many. the closer we get to this coming weekend the longer that ridge from the Azores wants to hang in there and hold up the low in the Atlantic. This delays any break down and brings the russian/scandi high more into play.

agree thats a nice run from the GFS,maybe those who want something more akin to summer will be rewarded,that said reading John H's view/take on things things although not washout nothing of interest really for the settled camp,ive looked at these charts for days now and they have all become very similar

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif

like had been said,still fingers crossed GFS is onto something?

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Captain, And a much warmer and pleasant end to the run as Height's push in again from the S/W, This time looking much stronger in blocking off the Atlantic. A long way to go yet though, But something im keeping an eye on..

 

Edited May 28, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[summer blizzard]

GFS6z very much an outlier compared to the Euro and GEM. Indeed the Euro ends with a 1040mb high over Greenland a pretty clear train of lows..

 

[draztik]

CFS ensembles trending more unsettled into next week/wkend, broadly along same lines of ecm ens..

Days 7-12 msl anom.

Also, GFS 6z shown to be an outlier post day 6, with its ensemble pack not supporting it.

A lot of rain spikes on the London ens as we hit June 1st, staying fairly unsettled thereafter. / temps fairly average.

Edited May 28, 2014 by draztik

[phil nw.]

Yes it's a shame the 006Z GFS op looks out of kilter with the ens means.

 

It's difficult to ignore the continuing forecast of another UK/NW European trough after the weekend ridge.

 

the main thrust of the jet still well south by day 10 with the Russian block continuing to be the problem forcing the low pressure se towards the UK and Europe.

Edited May 28, 2014 by phil nw.