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Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Wolves
  • Location: Wolves

Complete contrast between T+168 for gfs and ecm,,,,,,,I think the Money is on Ecm........ Posted Image  Posted Image  Posted Image

Well thats a surprise you thinking the worst!!

Edited by Polar Maritime
Maybe for some, But please keep moaning to the relevant threads. Thanks.
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Looking at the ECM upper air anomaly for next week. There is no appreciable difference from the last run although it does have a transient ridge over the UK. Now there's a surprise.

 

So a cold pool over Canada and Greenland and N. europe with the warm air to the SW and NE. Initially this ridges as already stated but then we are back to the 00z scenario with the Atlantic trough taking over

 

On the surface the UK more or less under the influence of the ridge although a touch tenuous but by Thursday the European trough has nipped in. I still feel that the cold air over Canada and Greenland needs shifting before we see a significant change to the set up with the ECM and to a certain extent with the GFS as well.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Well thats a surprise you thinking the worst!!

Ok think Gfs  is right,,,,, :closedeyes::rofl::rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

GEFS ensemble mean looking rather promising for a more long lasting period of dry weather with temperatures around average with easterly winds as a result of high pressure building to the north of the UK. Pressure looks like falling from the south around day 10 which would indicate more unsettled conditions pushing up from the south. This is in line with what the GFS 12z was showing.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ECM ens anomaly has a familiar ring to it. Given the position of the jet and the cold air I wouldn't bet a fortune on any great progress with the Azores high. Then tomorrows another day and given the state of the models recently next week is stretching it slightly.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Just a quickie - recent ECM ens spreads have been keen to take the week 2 depression into biscay and the lw trough over us in general. The 12z spreads do build the sceuro ridge closer to the uk and would be a big improvement on the mean and anomolys. One to watch perhaps ?

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

The ECM ens anomaly has a familiar ring to it.

 

Yes,the same general pattern of the last 2 weeks looks set to continue with high pressure anomalies

to the NE and SW/W  which leaves the UK vulnerable to troughing.

 

H500 anomalies for approx last 2 weeks..

 

ECM 12z day 10 H500 anomalies..

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

 

 

Might squeeze some good weather this coming weekend which i suspect will be 

welcomed by many,especially those in the East!

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

I think the 12z ecm will be closer to the gem rather than gfs.... :closedeyes:

I appreciate this isnt 100% on topic but why do you think this? A lot of bold statements in here recently but no reason to support it. Hasn't the GFS been arguably the most consistent in the last couple/few days? Shouldnt a little more weight be given to this especially when its the ECM which has showed signs of moving to the GFS today?

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Let the trend be your friend.. ECWMF sticks to it trough solution, GFS18z in the high resolution does the same...

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Well there is one trend which has developed over the last few runs, and that is for heights to the north east to be a lot closer to the UK and slowing up the Atlantic advance.

GFS a tad disappointing but is similar to last nights ECM

Posted Image

 

 

On the other hand the UKMO ans GEM look a bit better today with the settled weather asting out the weekend and into the start of next week.

 

Posted Image

Posted Image7

 

Whilst unsettled weather gets in still, the ramifications are seen at the end of the GEM run.

Posted Image

This shows a lot more promise

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Just a quick look at the GFS 18z 500hPa anomaly for next week as it appears to be sticking to the line it's been indicating. Of course I haven't seen today's yet.

 

The 7th looks familiar but by the end it has at last shifted the cold pool west of Greenland north and the warm air further east over the UK resulting in the Atlantic trough moving west and losing much of it's influence over the UK.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Again this is more promising, the ECM suggests that the high will hang on even into Tuesday with a trough developing west of the UK

Posted Image

 

Back to low pressure sitting to the south west of the UK again

Posted Image

Posted Image

With all the talk of repeating patterns, the ECM this morning is rather similar to a week or so back when we saw low heights drop into the Bay of Biscay and gave us a glancing blow of warmer weather.

I think this mornings model suite throws all options back into the ring again. Cool and unsettled is certainly not the clear favourite any more.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

I doubt that little fella will deepen quite as much as that.......(assuming it verifies).

Not a surprise to see the spreads dictating the direction of travel.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I doubt that little fella will deepen quite as much as that.......(assuming it verifies).Not a surprise to see the spreads dictating the direction of travel.

 

So do I as it seems a bit odd. The ECM ops anomaly for the period again has a familiar pattern except the cold pool in Europe is stronger, and further north and west and has developed this low at the apex of the trough.

 

Looking at the surface development it's worthy of Tommy Cooper. Where did that spring from? Awaiting the ens with bated..........

........

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Well the ECM ens does have a nasty trough over the UK although it does downplay the ops surface scenario without completely throwing it out.  Is the role of the jet stream as it loops down around N. France partly responsible for the formation of the low as predicted? Just a thought but it's a bit above my pay grade.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO continues to look very promising for a settled spell to develop with this process getting underway on Thursday

 

Posted Image

 

From Friday the high continues to build and that set's us up for a nice weekend and this lasts till at least Monday

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

I appreciate this isnt 100% on topic but why do you think this? A lot of bold statements in here recently but no reason to support it. 

 

Would like to highlight this post, some people should take this advice on board. Just one sentence posts saying "I think GFS is right/ECM is wrong" don't really add to the discussion. If you can add a bit of reasoning to this claim then that's fine, even if it's wrong! We're just asking for a little bit of substance to posts, as one sentence claims don't really aid discussion.

 

As you were :D

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Oh wow. It's hard to put into words quite how bad the GEM, GFS6z and ECWMF are this morning. All form a trough to our south west and then all end up with a north easterly which will leave me and those in the north east with zero chance of sunshine and probably quite supressed maxima.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The GEFS 06z is pretty poor for the start of June. The south holding on to the transient ridge for the end of the weekend before pressure falls again. The London ens

 

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The mean pressure stays below 1017 for all week 2 with an unsettled rainfall graph. Temps look average at best from the weekend.

 

ECM temp mean similar to the GEFS: post-14819-0-22309900-1401192882_thumb.g

 

Again the ECM op looks in outlier territory for D8-10. Probably as the op was showing a cut off upper low as it has recently done for the recent UK troughing, building heights to our north. That never happened so the op again looks synoptically an outlier.

 

The 8-14 day NOAA keeps the UK trough based with the north more likely to see settled weather with possible ridging from the N/NE:

 

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The CFS for June consistent in its latest output: post-14819-0-31629200-1401193227_thumb.ppost-14819-0-45413000-1401193238_thumb.p

 

The latest Met update in broad agreement of this: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_alltext.html

 

No sign of any anomaly over the UK so a slack set up with the UK caught in no mans land, probably mixed average June weather. The latest EC32 ties in with an unsettled first half, possible pressure build, that maybe only transient.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Yes the GFS  500mb anomaly took a backward step on the 4th. It has a trough running Greenland to N. Europe with the usual high pressure to the SW/NE. The jet stream is running down the west of Britain on the 5th, with a surface low over the latter, before turning north over the North sea. The glimmer of hope is that at the end of the run has the upper air ridging from the NE and significant weakening of the Greenland cold pool although still leaving a trough mid Atlantic. I think this clutching at bales.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The last day of the Month could be pleasant from the Midlands South according to the GFS, With Heights trying to push N/E,  Temps into the low 20's and maybe even a break from the showers, But not for long as more cool showery weather spills by the 3rd from the N/W, Leaving a very wet/cool and unsettled end to the run, Bar the very last few frames..

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Looks like the heat will be building next week across Europe again as low heights slowly fade away with the main area of low heights becoming more centred towards the UK

Posted Image

I must say the conditions look good for heat to try and head towards the UK though with a trough developing west of the UK. The pattern does seem to be trying to back westwards which is good news.

 

GFS FI for fun say yes with a plume event.

Posted Image

Posted Image

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

The 12z runs still going with a much better little spell at the end of the week showing the Azores High ridging in nicely.Sunshine and dry pretty widely at the weekend.Possible 22c in favoured spots for Saturday.

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all to brief though as both GFS and UKMO show the approach of the Atlantic trough from the nw by Sunday so frontal rain moving into the nw by then and this breakdown continuing into early next week.

 

Looking at the T120hrs NH charts we can clearly see the split flow of the jet around our locale as the shallow upper trough starts to slide se into the continent.

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The Russian block to the east persisting which does us no favours by locking the trough across W.Europe keeping things rather unsettled for a while longer.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The very last few frames are showing some much dryer/warmer weather pushing up from the S/E. Something to keep an eye on..

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

The very last few frames are showing some much dryer/warmer weather pushing up from the S/E. Something to keep an eye on..

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

isnt that what steve murr was on about? (not read most posts recently) wasnt he thinking the high might retrogress westward. that would be a good call IF this occurs.

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