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Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM also showing an east to north easterly feed developing early next week as a result temperatures start to rise in the south at first then to more parts by midweek

 

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JMA is also showing this easterly feed now with some warmer air coming with it from the continent

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

GFS much more unsettled at day 6..

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

ECM have gone from a D10 Icelandic Low to an Icelandic High in the space of 12 hours for their respective D10 charts:

 

post-14819-0-58359200-1400699507_thumb.g post-14819-0-16210800-1400699005_thumb.g

 

Now bringing in a Northerly by T240: post-14819-0-09288900-1400699128_thumb.g

 

For all of GFS progressive nature regarding the Atlantic, its consistency has been strong, just a bit awkward with the timing. ECM goes from African plumes one run to Arctic outbreaks the next!

 

It has, as expected modified its uppers in the D6-D8 range, down by 3-4c as a whole, compared to the 0z run. More in line with the 0z mean. I could run with that op  run till I saw the D10 chart!

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

 

 

Now bringing in a Northerly by T240: http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifECM0-240 (6).gif

 

For all of GFS progressive nature regarding the Atlantic, its consistency has been strong, just a bit awkward with the timing. ECM goes from African plumes one run to Arctic outbreaks the next!

 

It has as expected modified its uppers in the D6-D8 range, down by 3-4c as a whole, compared to the 0z run. More in line with the 0z mean. I could run with that op  run till I saw the D10 chart!

 

Not sure how much we can conclude from a chart at T240 given the amount of chopping and changing that has been going on over the last week within the 'reliable time frame'. You are clearly very knowledgeable but there does seem to be a big emphasis on the cool and unsettled charts in your posts. All this talk about these cool, unsettled conditions and they still haven't arrived for many. For midweek the ECM 12Z looks similar to the earlier run, it's certainly cooler though later on but I'm not sure how much we can look into that at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

That is correct, at least the latter part. The 500mb anomaly is not building pressure to the east but is in the Atlantic with a strong ridge whilst maintaining the complex slack area over the UK with the low pool over northern Europe.

 

Surface analysis is strong high pressure to the west and low to the east with the UK in the middle leading basically to a northerly airflow over the UK. By Saturday this has led to distinctly cooler temps especially in the north. But as has been pointed out this is a somewhat fluid analysis, especially considering the upper anomaly appears by no means settled so this is extremely nebulous.

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

op or ens? post day 6 should always be the ens ( unless the op is closer to reality!!)

Tbh, the latter part of the ecm op has looked dodgy to me for days now. Thats just a reflection of flacid anomalies. remember that the extended ens anomalies had the higher heights extending over a cut off shallow trough? Well thats sort of where we'lll end up but there is still wriggle room for a varied solution to verify.

I wouldnt be taking anything, op or ens post day 6/7 at the moment. Far too tricky.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I was just about to post the ens it isn't a million miles different.  I agree with your conclusion but I fancied nebulous. :)

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

This mornings ops ECM for the weekend after the holiday weekend. Not much change from yesterday. The upper air has HP in the Atlantic with a strong ridge, still the cold pool in northern Europe. A weak transient ridge to the east which tends to leave the UK as piggy in the middle.

 

Surface analysis similar. High Pressure in Atlantic with a very large complex low pressure area stretching from the east through Europe to N. Africa. Initially the UK is in a part of this complex system but by Sunday the HP had had enough of this and nudged it's influence into the UK bringing NE winds.

 

Consequently the temps that had been about average turn distinctly chilly for the north especially. I don't think for a minute this will verify. Will shufty the ens later.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Hi Knocker. The Bank Holiday weekend is the coming Monday, the 26th. I notice the charts are for the following weekend.

 

ECM and also GEM coming in line with the GFS with regard to next weeks charts. GEM has a slack upper trough running through the UK up till the end of the run with mainly showers. Though on Bank Holiday Monday it generates a low to the SE that does a tour of the UK for the next 36 hours so wet for a period for most sometime in those two days:

 

post-14819-0-55509800-1400745961_thumb.p  Some support from the GEFS (and ECM): post-14819-0-59668000-1400745996_thumb.g

 

No sign of any prolonged settled spell yet from the ensembles, though no wash out, and temps recovering to average or above for London:

 

post-14819-0-77059600-1400746068_thumb.g

 

The ECM plays around with the upper trough throughout this morning's run but by D10 we remain under it's wing, and as like yesterday's 12z it promotes the Atlantic ridge in its later stages: post-14819-0-41878700-1400746170_thumb.g

 

This ties in with the recent GEFS. They have been consistent with the trough till around the end of the month. This morning by D10 about 50% have now jumped ship, offering the majority prospect of the Azores high moving towards Scandi (about 40% cluster) passing through our region. By T384 (I know) there is no indication of any MLB settling close to the UK, to the contrary it remains rather changeable (though nothing in the miserable category) with no favored outcome. Though confidence in anything after D5 remains low IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BH Monday looks warm for some places but it does look like some rain may be around for some

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Warm for some but where your stuck under the rain in the south temperatures really struggle in some parts

 

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Looking beyond BH Monday and temperature gradually rise though it takes till Thursday before most areas see an increase in temperatures

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

There will be some rain around at times but in any sunnier periods it should feel quite warm

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Well despite the cheery outlook from the GFS, the GEM and Euro are pretty awful.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Updating with the ECM ens and they aren't cooking with gas. Similar set up to the ops but not anywhere near as cool although still not that clever.

 

Note. I'm now not sure what week I'm in so the charts I've posted relate to the weekend after next as hopefully was noticed on the charts. Thanks for the heads up ido.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Well despite the cheery outlook from the GFS, the GEM and Euro are pretty awful.

 

Posted Image

 

 

Quite a difference between the ECM Op and Ensemble at t192 it has to be said

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Horrific GFS, 2007 all over again..

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Horrific GFS, 2007 all over again..

 

Posted Image

 

Slack, unsettled & potentially very wet in some areas.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Slack, unsettled & potentially very wet in some areas.

 

Aye, looks like a quasi-stationary front.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Hmm there are still major differences even at 3 days out (Sunday). GFS has the low drifting south west away from the UK bringing a much drier and brighter day. UKMO/ECM have the low slowly lifting northwards from it current position and bringing another day of heavy showers.

Posted Image

UKMO (similar to ECM)

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ECM certainly a bit more progressive with the Azores high, in fact apart from some rain grazing the south east, this run isn't too bad. 

Posted Image

Though I would expect a lot of cloud in eastern area.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

12z models are not promising any settled weather over the next few days with an upper trough still around the UK.as we go into next week.

Even BH Monday is not looking great at the moment.

GFS

post-2026-0-34470400-1400781770_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-37260300-1400781785_thumb.pn

 

a southerly tracking jet showing it's hand with further pulses of rain or showers likely from shallow low developments. Continental Europe also looking unsettled from this pattern.

post-2026-0-39715200-1400782927_thumb.pn

 

 

UKMO and ECM models going with a similar picture

post-2026-0-76828000-1400782141_thumb.gipost-2026-0-92386700-1400782986_thumb.gi

 

so not great although inevitably we will see some intervals of sunshine.It looks like we will be dodging the showers on most days.

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

ECM giving Europe a horrible setup as we head into Summer. D10: post-14819-0-63290700-1400785265_thumb.g

 

By about D6 the ECM is well on its way to pushing any heights to our East well out of Europe. This allows the Euro trough to fill and pump itself up with a continuous feed from the North. So very cool and wet with the UK bullseye for the jet:

 

post-14819-0-94245300-1400785456_thumb.g  post-14819-0-77437700-1400786111_thumb.g

 

That trough is effectively a block and may not allow the Atlantic Ridge to progress east. Would not want ECM to run with this synoptic.

 

Looking at today's JMA's update, it rolls with a Scandi High anomaly from D10-16: post-14819-0-34122400-1400785839_thumb.p

 

No sign of the strong ECM op Atlantic anomaly: post-14819-0-60888500-1400785910_thumb.g

 

No support for this progressive  Atlantic ridge from the GEFS either. Maybe the ECM op is on one again.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Regarding the ECM ops position for the weekend after next. I'm awake now. There has been a quite significant realignment of the upper air pattern. The HP to the west is now tending SW/NE and affecting the UK with the colder pool taking a similar orientation to the SE of the UK.

 

This has led to the Atlantic high nudging further east and influencing the UK bringing northerly, unsettled and rather cool conditions to most of the country.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Rather cool and showery sums up the T+168 charts from ecm and gfs...ECM  keeps Scotland rather cool and dry though, southern Britain bearing the worst of the weather...

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Edited by ANYWEATHER
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Well, long time not posts thanks to replacing aging pc. So not had a continuous set of 500mb anomaly charts.

The output I have seen does suggest the NOAA charts below are probably the best guide for the upper air pattern over the 6-15 day period from now. ECMWF output this morning was closer to the NOAA 6-10 than the GFS output but neither showed much consistency with one another compared with their previous outputs really. So I would go with the NOAA output.

Mind you none of the 3 anomaly charts predicted 7 days weather I got here, 7 days with maximum temperatures above 21C. The best I could suggest from them 10-15 days ago was 3 days at the most.

Just goes to show whichever models we tend to follow, none of them are right all the time.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

GFS still going for a band of heavy (perhaps thundery) rain which will push northwards from France on Monday into Tuesday. Could see a couple of inches of rain from this if it does come off.

Aside from this spell, the GFS then puts low pressure west/south west of the UK and resumes the sun and showers regime.

Posted Image

Posted Image

Temperatures look near average, but warm in any drier and sunnier moments.

 

Of course this will be completely different next run as the model variation at even 3/4 days out looks unusually large.

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