Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[Summer Sun]

Another settled run from UKMO with it showing the high moving in from the SW during Tuesday with it quickly moving across the UK

 

 

UKMO has the high stronger at t144 compared to GFS

 

 

BBC weather also talking about the pressure rise next week now on the forecasts

 

Monday and Tuesday starts on a showery note some sunshine around but from Wednesday onwards high pressure starts to build settling down and turning much warmer

Edited May 9, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

Many places should see their first 20c of the year by the end of next week. Both the GFS and UKMO (assuming it went 2 days further) looking good for 3/4 days of warm and bright/sunny conditions.

[knocker]

Well you can forget the raging northerly on Sunday from the GFS. It's now been transformed into a low to the NW giving westerly to SW winds with fronts crossing the UK. Thursday to Sat. still looking okay but wait................................................

[Captain Shortwave]

Still looks like the High over the Eastern seaboard will win the battle and by default place us close to low pressure as it sinks south east towards Europe. We really need more of a push north east from the Azores high to extend any dry and warm spell beyond the start of next weekend.

[Summer Sun]

Not very much rainy days on the GFS 12z run this evening. In actual fact in the south eastern corner it looks okish, the north west isn't looking as favourable however. Could be worse but could be better as well.

 

Yep very much what the precipitation data is showing for week 2 wettest in the NW and Ireland driest the further SE you go

 

 

Next week is an improving picture with the rain turning more showery Mon and Tues before the high gets in control by Wednesday how long it'll last who knows but the northerly GFS was showing at day 10 has now gone

Edited May 9, 2014 by Summer Sun

[IDO]

The GFS mean continues to downgrade the HP next week, the mean now UK wide HP from D5-D8:

 

 

Looking at the London Ens, again as with recent GFS ops it has been the least progressive with the lower heights returning, most drop pressure quicker so further downgrades are possible:

 

 

The HP not showing as retrogressing anymore and just leaks eastwards. A UK trough then sinks south for 5-6 days (mean) before pressure tries to rise again. Though the Control has a trough over the UK from T192 to T384 (cut off at the end):

 

 

 

Not a million miles from the op run and good support from the ensembles.

 

So it does look like high confidence that the HP mid week is only transitory as the AH migrates east allowing for a period of a more slack unsettled flow with average to just below temps by D9.

 

 

 

 

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

all i  saying  in   fantasy world  at  the   moment  .leading  up to the bank holiday  is don't  go far with out the  brolly!!

Edited May 9, 2014 by tinybill

[knocker]

Little surprise that the GFS synoptic analysis for Sunday 18th has changed drastically when you look at the 500hPa anomaly charts for the two runs.

 

[Summer Sun]

Little surprise that the GFS synoptic analysis for Sunday 18th has changed drastically when you look at the 500hPa anomaly charts for the two runs.

 

What does that mean for the UK?

 

ECM showing a breakdown next weekend with things turning very unsettled

 

 

Before that Wednesday ad Thursday looks very settled and pleasant

 

 

Friday looks settled for most with the high clinging

 

Edited May 9, 2014 by Summer Sun

[IDO]

ECM more progressive with lowering heights than the GFS, by D8 the UK now under a trough. This transition on D8 has over 33% support with the GEFS so tenable:

 

D8: 

Edited May 9, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[IDO]

Another cool wet weekend incoming for next week according to the 12z. Sunday week:  

 

Looking like two cold fronts crossing on a strong jet so could be very wet. Early days but synoptics look to have cross model support, just timing and intensity as variables.

 

D10: 

 

The LP stay in situ...

Edited May 9, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[DTHFCJ]

Little surprise that the GFS synoptic analysis for Sunday 18th has changed drastically when you look at the 500hPa anomaly charts for the two runs.

TBF they have changed every run of late...must be a nightmare trying to do a forecast in this country.....

[knocker]

What does that mean for the UK?

 

 

Well until the main models get some sort of conformity and grip regarding the upper air anomaly we will continue to see this changing surface analysis. The last two runs of the GFS is a good example of just one model. So regarding the UK for the next weekend I'm joining JH on the fence.

[knocker]

Just looked at the ECM and it's another classic example. Frankly they are all over the place at the moment. The 500 anomaly now has the ridge way to the east with a trough smack over the UK. Result massive change in the surface analysis as can be seen.

 

[ANYWEATHER]

It does look like a fleeting glance of high pressure from the ecm, gfs shows more in the way of a more longer settled spell,, allbeit a quick change to more unsettled weather. Im really not buying anything as to a long period of high pressure, dispite the hype.....

[Summer Sun]

ECM 12z ensemble gives us 3 settled days next week (Tuesday to Friday) it then starts to turn things more unsettled gradually from the north on Saturday to the end of its run on the Monday

 

[Cloud 10]

A similar theme between tonight's NOAA 8-14 dayer and the 12z ensemble means from GFS and ECM,with a strong signal for high pressure to get yanked North-West after day 7.

 

 

Today's 6-15 dayer from the met office sums it up well.

 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 14 May 2014 to Friday 23 May 2014:

High pressure is likely to build across central and southern parts of the country bringing a good deal of dry and fine weather with light winds, particularly in the south. However, northern and northwestern parts of the UK will remain cloudier and windier at times with occasional rain or drizzle. Temperatures will be around average in the northwest, but turning warmer across southeastern parts in the sunshine and light winds. However through the latter part of the weekend and into the following week, there is likely to be a transition to more unsettled and cooler conditions with rain or showers, possibly heavy at times, extending southwards across the country; although the southeast may hold on to the drier and brighter conditions for a time.

Updated: 1120 on Fri 9 May 2014

[phil nw.]

Yes it looks like 4-5 day spell of settled weather from mid-week before the models show an Atlantic trough approaching by Sunday.

ECM perhaps a little quicker on the breakdown but a prolonged settled spell doesn't look on the cards yet when looking at the ens means for week 2.

[knocker]

Quite.

 

[Costa Del Fal]

Nice GFS 12z but Im amazed how quickly the high breaks down over Europe. Plausible but seems very quick.

Edited May 9, 2014 by Blizzards

[Cloud 10]

Exciting news from the 18z!

 

The colour of the symbol used for the run has been changed to gold.  

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

[knocker]

What delights await us today I wonder. The first surprise is that the GFS 500 hPa Anomaly for the last two runs does show consistency as can be seen. Thus the surface analysis is not completely different so a step in the right direction.

 

Very briefly on Saturday and Sunday the high is west of Ireland bringing a light northerly to the UK. By Monday this has retreated west and the low pressure between Iceland and Norway has has taken over bringing rain into Scotland on a fresh NW wind that affects the whole of the UK.

Edited May 10, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Ther is still a difference between the GFS and ECM upper anomaly although they do appear to be singing from the same hymn sheet. It's basically to do with the orientation of the trough as can be seen by looking at the two although admittedly the ECM is the mean.

 

On the surface the ECM has the low much nearer the UK and the breakdown occurs a day earlier and cyclonic circulation over the UK is in place by Monday. So still major differences regarding the when on the breakdown so confidence rating still pointing towards fence sitting.

Edited May 10, 2014 by knocker

[phil nw.]

Good morning Knocker, yes the expected fine spell from the middle of next week is still modeled to end around the weekend with the 00z ECM op also showing the approach of the Atlantic trough into Scotland by late Saturday.

Compared to GFS just a little earlier

 

not quite within the reliable timeframe and some small differences in timing but going by all the recent ens outputs it does look like the following week starts off quite cool and unsettled under that upper trough.

 

Last nights CPC forecast ht anomalies also supporting the expected pattern going into week 2.

Edited May 10, 2014 by phil nw.

[knocker]

Morning Phil. Yes we do appear to be approaching some conformity.